Stock Name & Ticker: UMS Holdings (SGX: 558)
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Chart Timeframe: Daily (Jan – Aug 2025)
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Bars Analyzed: ~150 trading sessions (approx. 8 months)
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Last Traded Price: SGD 1.40
1. Market Structure & Order Flow
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Trend Structure:
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Early year (Jan–Mar): Sideways consolidation between 1.00 – 1.15.
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April: Breakdown to 0.91 low, quickly reclaimed (spring/shakeout).
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May–Jul: Shift to uptrend with higher lows (1.04 → 1.17) and higher highs (1.15 → 1.60).
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Aug: Pullback from swing high 1.60 to 1.35–1.38 support zone.
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Key Structural Levels:
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Swing Lows (SL): 0.91, 1.01, 1.04, 1.17
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Swing Highs (SH): 1.15, 1.60
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CHoCH: April reversal at 0.91 confirmed by breakout above 1.15 in June.
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Momentum Assessment:
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Strong upward impulse June–July (large green bodies, volume expansion).
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Recent retracement shows momentum decay with overlapping bars and contracting range around 1.35–1.40.
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2. Advanced Volume-Price Relationship (VPR)
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Absorption Evidence:
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Mar–Apr: High volume but shallow downside follow-through → institutional absorption.
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Climactic Action:
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July spike toward 1.60 on expanding volume → possible buying climax.
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Pullback Phase:
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Current decline on elevated but decreasing volume, suggesting profit-taking rather than aggressive selling.
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3. Institutional Footprints
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Liquidity Grab:
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April flush to 0.91 cleared stops below 1.00 before strong reversal (Wyckoff spring action).
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Order Block:
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Demand zone around 1.30–1.35 (last bearish order block before breakout toward 1.60).
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Fair Value Gap (FVG):
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Gap between 1.25–1.30 left untested, potential revisit zone.
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4. Bar Pattern Recognition
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Reversal Signals:
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Long lower wicks around 0.91 (spring bottom).
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Current bar cluster at 1.35–1.40 shows attempted hammering but no decisive bullish engulfing yet.
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Continuation Setup:
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July rally formed a bullish flag breakout. Current correction is ~38.2% retrace of impulse leg (1.17 → 1.60).
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5. Multi-Timeframe Confluence
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Weekly View:
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Broad structure bullish; recent decline is a weekly pullback within uptrend.
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Daily View:
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Testing support at 1.35–1.40. A higher low vs. 1.17 needed to maintain bullish structure.
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6. Psychological Levels
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Round Numbers:
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1.00 (historical floor, strong defense).
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1.50 & 1.60 (resistance cluster).
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1.30–1.35 psychological mid-zone (support test ongoing).
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7. Market Regime Classification
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Current Regime: Transitioning from trending to corrective (pullback phase).
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Evidence: Volatility contraction, overlapping bars, decline from recent high.
8. Risk-Adjusted Setup Identification
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Bullish Bias Scenario:
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Buy zone: 1.35–1.38 support, stop below 1.30 (structural demand zone).
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Target 1: 1.50, Target 2: 1.60 retest.
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R:R approx. 1:2.5.
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Bearish Bias Scenario:
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Breakdown below 1.30 invalidates bullish case. Next downside target 1.17.
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High-Conviction Observations
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Institutional shakeout confirmed at 0.91 → long-term accumulation footprint.
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Strong impulse move June–July validated by volume expansion (institutional drive).
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Current decline showing profit-taking rather than distribution (volume decays on red candles).
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1.35–1.38 zone is pivotal → structural support + order block.
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A higher low above 1.17 is required to sustain macro bullish structure.
✅ Trade Summary
Buying UMS (SGX:558) because price is testing institutional demand at 1.35–1.38 with bullish order block support, with stops at 1.30 targeting 1.50 → 1.60 for a 1:2.5 R:R.
Confidence Rating: 7/10
Key Levels to Watch: Support 1.30–1.35 | Resistance 1.50–1.60 | Invalid below 1.30
🔎 Pre-Execution Checklist:
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Confirm bullish reversal candle near 1.35–1.38.
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Watch for volume expansion on up-bars.
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Place stop beyond structural level, not arbitrary %.
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Scale out partial profits at 1.50, trail remainder to 1.60.
Disclaimer:Please note that this analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice. Trading involves significant risk, and you should consult with a financial advisor before making any decisions.
Dividend: 3.71
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