Sheng Siong - 29 Aug 2025

• Stock Name / Ticker: Sheng Siong Group Ltd. (SGX: OV8)

• Chart Timeframe: Daily (1D)

• Date Range Observed: Jan 2025 – Aug 29, 2025

• Bars in Analysis Period: ~160 trading days (8 months)

• Last Traded Price: SGD 2.03

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1. Market Structure & Order Flow Analysis

• Trend Structure:

  • Swing Lows (SL): 1.57 (Apr), 1.80 (Jun), 2.03 (Aug)

  • Swing Highs (SH): 1.88 (May), 2.23 (Jul)

  • Clear uptrend from Apr → Jul (HH/HL sequence).

  • Current: CHoCH in Aug with failure to sustain above 2.23 and now testing 2.03 support.

• Break of Structure (BOS):

  • Jul → Aug: First structural lower high after 2.23 peak.

  • Holding 2.03 is critical; loss of this level = downside BOS.

• Momentum Assessment:

  • Strong impulsive runs Apr–Jul (large wide bars, expanding volume).

  • Aug shows decaying momentum → smaller ranges, overlapping bars, reduced volume conviction.

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2. Volume-Price Relationship (VPR)

• Apr–Jul rally: Wide ranges with strong volume = professional accumulation and markup.

• At 2.23: Climactic volume spike with long wick → institutional distribution.

• Post-July decline: Volume tapering while price drifts down → weak demand, no aggressive absorption yet.

• At 2.03: Notable support retest with no strong rejection yet → institutions not yet stepping in visibly.

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3. Institutional Footprint Recognition

• Liquidity Grab: The 2.23 top shows stop-hunting → spike above psychological 2.20, then immediate reversal.

• Order Block: Bullish order block around 1.80–1.88 still valid → last consolidation before July breakout.

• Fair Value Gap (FVG): Apr–May rally left imbalance zone between 1.72–1.82, likely future retest zone.

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4. Bar Pattern Recognition

• 2.23 reversal bar: Long upper wick + high volume = exhaustion shooting star.

• Recent bars (Aug): Small-bodied candles around 2.03 → indecision, weak demand response.

• No bullish engulfing or hammer present yet → reversal not confirmed.

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5. Multi-Timeframe Confluence

• Weekly: Strong trend up, but 2.23 rejection forms potential weekly swing high.

• Daily: Compression near 2.03 → decision point.

• If weekly closes below 2.00 → structural breakdown confirmed.

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6. Psychological Levels

• Round number: 2.00 is a major psychological + structural support.

• Upside reference: 2.20 / 2.23 remains key resistance.

• ATR perspective: Recent daily ranges ~0.02–0.05 (normal volatility). A decisive move outside 2.00–2.10 range likely sparks continuation.

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7. Risk-Adjusted Setup Identification

• Bullish Scenario (if 2.03/2.00 holds):

  • Entry near 2.03, stop below 1.95, target retest of 2.20.

  • R:R ~ 1:2.1.

• Bearish Scenario (if 2.00 breaks):

  • Short on breakdown, stop above 2.07, target 1.82 (order block retest).

  • R:R ~ 1:3.

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8. Market Regime Classification

• Transition Regime → trending up until July, now stalling with structural weakness.

• Increased volatility, indecisive closes, signs of distribution.

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9. Institutional Supply/Demand Analysis

• Supply pressure clearly visible above 2.20.

• Demand absorption weak at 2.03.

• If large players intended to defend, we would expect wide rejection wicks + volume spike, which is not yet seen.

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10. Comprehensive Market Context

• Consumer staples sector typically defensive → less volatile.

• Relative strength: Sheng Siong showed outperformance vs SGX index Apr–Jul.

• Current stalling may reflect broader sector rotation.

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📌 Key Observations (Highest Conviction)

1. 2.23 = confirmed distribution top with exhaustion volume.

2. 2.03/2.00 = critical demand zone → breakdown would signal strong shift to bearish control.

3. Order block 1.80–1.88 = next demand test if 2.00 fails.

4. Volume divergence: Rising price peaked on declining volume = waning demand.

5. Current regime = distribution to early markdown phase unless 2.00 holds decisively.

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✅ Trade Summary

• Selling Sheng Siong (SGX: OV8) because price rejected 2.23 with distribution signals and is retesting critical 2.03/2.00 support with weak demand response, with stops at 2.07, targeting 1.82, offering ~1:3 R:R.

• Confidence Rating: 7.5/10

• Key Levels to Watch: 2.23 (resistance), 2.00 (support), 1.82 (target demand zone).

Checklist Before Execution:

• Confirm break + daily close below 2.00.

• Watch volume expansion for confirmation of institutional selling.

• Adjust stop for slippage in low-liquidity SGX environment.

Disclaimer:Please note that this analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice. Trading involves significant risk, and you should consult with a financial advisor before making any decisions.

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