Raffles Medical (SGX: BSL) – Daily timeframe (Jan–Aug 2025, ~160 bars) with last traded price at 1.01 SGD.
1. Market Structure & Order Flow
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Trend Structure:
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Early 2025: sharp markup phase (0.80 → 1.03, Feb–Mar).
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April retrace to 0.90 SL, followed by a new swing high at 1.05 (May) → higher-high, higher-low progression intact.
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June retest low 0.94, then rebound.
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July–Aug: push to 1.09 (SH), followed by rejection and pullback into 0.99–1.01 zone.
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Current regime = transition from trending up → rangebound distribution.
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Break of Structure (BOS):
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BOS down noted after 1.09 rejection, with SL formed at 0.99.
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Current lower-highs forming (1.09 → 1.05 → 1.03), signaling momentum decay.
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Order Flow Imbalances:
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Institutional supply present around 1.05–1.09 zone (heavy rejection, wide-body down bars).
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Demand test at 0.94–0.99, with buying tails suggesting accumulation interest.
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2. Volume-Price Relationship (VPR)
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Absorption Zones:
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Mar rally → heavy volume, small retraces → institutional accumulation.
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Aug 1.09 rejection → wide range, high volume → climactic supply bar.
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Volume Divergence:
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Successive highs (1.05 → 1.09) on declining volume → weakening buyer pressure.
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Support re-tests near 0.94–0.99 with stabilizing volume → possible absorption.
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Clusters:
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Major volume at 0.94–0.99 demand zone, and 1.05–1.09 supply zone → key battlegrounds.
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3. Institutional Footprints
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Liquidity Grab:
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Aug spike to 1.09 likely stop-run above prior SH (1.05), immediately rejected → classic upthrust (UTAD in Wyckoff terms).
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Order Blocks:
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Demand OB: 0.94–0.99 (tested multiple times, buyers defending).
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Supply OB: 1.05–1.09 (institutional distribution zone).
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Fair Value Gaps:
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Thin liquidity between 0.96–0.99, repeatedly tested.
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4. Bar Pattern Recognition
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Reversal Bars:
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Aug rejection bar off 1.09 = wide range engulfing, heavy volume → bearish control.
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Continuation Bars:
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Several inside bars post-selloff, indicating coiling near 1.00.
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Indecision:
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Current bar (1.01 close) = small body, low conviction → market waiting for breakout trigger.
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5. Multi-Timeframe Confluence
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Weekly chart bias (higher TF): still in broader uptrend from 0.80 base, but showing distribution near 1.05–1.10.
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Daily compression: 1.00 midpoint acting as pivot → repeated rejections and supports.
6. Psychological Levels
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1.00 SGD = key psychological battleground (currently at it).
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0.90 = prior strong demand base.
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1.10 = round number resistance not yet cleared.
7. Market Regime Classification
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Current regime: Range/Distribution between 0.94 (support) and 1.09 (resistance).
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Transition signals: Lower highs, failed follow-through after 1.09 → sellers gaining control.
8. Key Observations (Highest Conviction)
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Institutional upthrust at 1.09 with rejection = supply confirmed.
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Demand defended at 0.94–0.99 zone, but repeated tests weaken support.
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Volume divergence on highs = buyer exhaustion.
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1.00 psychological level = current battleground; break below likely accelerates selling.
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Range regime dominates; breakout confirmation required for directional bias.
9. Forward-Looking Bias
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Bullish scenario: If 1.00 holds with absorption + breakout above 1.05, retest 1.09–1.10.
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Bearish scenario: Failure to hold 0.99–1.00 → liquidity vacuum to 0.94, extended target 0.90.
Trade Summary
Selling Raffles Medical (SGX: BSL) because of institutional upthrust rejection at 1.09 and weakening demand at 1.00, with stops above 1.05 targeting 0.94 for ~1:2.5 risk-reward.
Confidence Rating: 7/10
Key Levels to Watch:
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Support: 0.94 / 0.90
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Resistance: 1.05 / 1.09
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Pivot: 1.00
Execution Checklist Before Trade:
☑ Confirm volume on 1.00 breakdown
☑ Align with higher timeframe bias
☑ Define stop strictly above 1.05
☑ Monitor for false breakdown traps
Disclaimer:Please note that this analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice. Trading involves significant risk, and you should consult with a financial advisor before making any decisions.
Dividend: 2.48%
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