SIA - 01 Aug 25

Stock: Singapore Airlines (SIA) – Ticker: C6L.SI
Exchange: SGX | Timeframe: Daily | Date Range: Oct 2024 – Aug 1, 2025
Bars in Analysis Period: ~200
Last Traded Price: SGD 6.82

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🔍 Market Regime Classification:

Transitioning from Strong Uptrend to Potential Distribution Phase

• Strong prior uptrend from March low (5.90) to July peak (7.67)

• Recent wide-range selloff with expanding volume suggests institutional distribution and momentum exhaustion

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🔎 Highest Conviction Observations

1. Trend Structure Breakdown & CHoCH

• Clear swing low (SL) at 6.68 formed in early July

• BOS/CHoCH confirmed with decisive breakdown below 7.00 support (previous consolidation area)

• Current bar has tested prior demand zone (6.68–6.80) with high volume and little bounce = weak demand response

2. Institutional Activity & Volume-Price Imbalance

• Large climactic volume bars on breakdown from 7.67 indicate institutional selling

• Friday's bar: high volume, small range, closing near low = potential absorption / shakeout

• Lack of upside follow-through post-break suggests no strong dip buying yet

3. Fair Value Gap (FVG) & Order Block Breakdown

• Gap zone between 6.90–7.10 from prior upside push now filled and rejected

• Former bullish order block around 6.94–7.00 has failed to hold → now flipped to resistance

4. Reversal & Continuation Candlestick Structure

• 3-bar bearish continuation sequence: lower highs, lower lows, increasing spread and volume

• Friday candle shows minor bottom tail, signaling early demand attempt but no reversal confirmation

5. Volume Clustering & Psychological Level

• Volume clustering around 6.80–6.90 suggests major decision zone

• 6.80 is a psychological and structural pivot; sustained break below risks retest of April low: 5.90

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🧠 Multi-Timeframe Confluence

• Weekly timeframe confirms break below mid-June swing support (7.18), indicating broader distribution

• No bullish confluence from higher timeframes; current pattern risks shifting into a weekly downtrend

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⚠️ Key Risk Parameters

• Invalidation Level: Break above 7.05 (gap close + former demand zone reclaim)

• Stop Zone (short bias): >7.10

• Profit Target: 6.25 (Feb low), extended 5.90 (April low)

• R:R Ratio: Potential 1:2.5 to 1:3 if entry occurs near 6.80–6.90

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🔮 Forward-Looking Bias & Key Levels

• Bias: Short-term bearish, leaning into distribution and breakdown continuation

• Key Levels to Watch:

  • Resistance: 7.05 (gap zone), 7.18 (prior swing high)

  • Support: 6.68 (structural low), 6.25 (February swing low), 5.90 (April major low)

• Monitor for absorption or reversal bar within next 2–3 sessions around 6.68–6.80

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✅ Execution Readiness Checklist

• Volume confirms directional move?

• Key structure (BOS/CHoCH) present?

• Clear invalidation + target zone?

• Aligns with higher timeframe?

• Favorable R:R > 1:2?

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Trade Summary Format:
Selling C6L.SI (SIA) because of bearish structural breakdown with institutional distribution at key resistance, with stops at 7.10, targeting 6.25–5.90 for risk-reward of 1:2.5 to 1:3.
Confidence Rating: 8/10
Key Levels: Support at 6.68 / 6.25 / 5.90 — Resistance at 7.05 / 7.18

Disclaimer:Please note that this analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice. Trading involves significant risk, and you should consult with a financial advisor before making any decisions.

Dividend:   7.04