Boustead SP - 01 Aug 25

Technical Market Analysis – Boustead Singapore Ltd (SGX: F9D)

Chart Timeframe: Daily (1D)
Date Range: November 2024 – 1 August 2025
Bars Analyzed: ~180
Last Price: SGD 1.58

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🧭 Market Regime: Transitioning from Accumulation Breakout to Early Distribution Phase

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🔍 Highest Conviction Observations

1. Macro Market Structure

• Major Break of Structure (BOS): Confirmed at SGD 1.12 in June; followed by aggressive displacement to SGD 1.75.

• Swing High/Low Mapping:

  • SHs: 1.12 → 1.40 → 1.72

  • SLs: 1.00 → 1.30 → Pending (watch 1.44–1.48)

• Change of Character (CHoCH): Bearish engulfing bar at 1.75 on above-average volume indicates weakening bullish control.

• Trend Momentum: Slowing – body sizes contracting post-parabolic move, increasing lower wicks.

2. Volume-Price Relationship (VPR)

• June–July:

  • Strong uptrend on expanding volume = institutional accumulation breakout.

  • Several wide-range bullish bars on increasing volume = displacement.

• Late July–August:

  • Bearish reversal bar (outside bar) at 1.75 with climactic volume → potential buying exhaustion.

  • Effort vs. Result: Recent down bars show higher volume but smaller net downward move → absorption or initial profit-taking.

  • Watch for Volume Dry-Up (VDU) near SGD 1.44–1.48 to signal potential re-accumulation.

3. Institutional Footprints

• Liquidity Grab: Price pierced above round number resistance (SGD 1.70) before aggressive rejection.

• Order Block Zone: 1.44–1.48 = last bullish imbalance zone pre-breakout; likely to act as demand zone.

• Fair Value Gap (FVG): Between 1.30–1.40, low overlap area where price moved impulsively. Retest probable.

• Displacement Confirmation: Mid-June breakout bar (from ~1.15 to 1.28) occurred with unusually high volume and minimal retrace.

4. Bar Pattern Diagnostics

• Reversal Bar (Bearish Engulfing) on 29 July:

  • Fully engulfed prior day, large body, closes near low, with above-average volume.

• Shooting Star/Pin Bar: Observed in final stages near 1.72 – long upper wick, rejected at high.

• No clear Inside Bar Complex Yet: Suggests lack of consolidation — current phase likely correction or early distribution.

5. Sector & Correlation Context

• Conglomerate Sector Rotation Potential: As Singapore markets pivot into late-cycle defensives, Boustead's broad exposure to infra, energy and geo-spatial could attract institutional capital.

• Correlation Sensitivity: Modestly correlated with Singapore infrastructure and tech index components — strength in SGX engineering stocks may bolster relative outperformance.

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🎯 Key Price Levels & Structural Zones

Zone Type	Level (SGD)	Significance
Immediate Resistance	1.65–1.72	Supply zone formed by exhaustion move
Active Support Zone	1.44–1.48	Bullish gap zone + order block entry; high-probability zone
Structural Demand Area	1.30–1.34	Former base, low overlap FVG area
Breakout Invalidator	Above 1.75	New high → continuation of trend confirmed
Breakdown Trigger	Below 1.44	Signals possible transition into wider distribution

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⚖️ Risk Framework

• Potential Entry Bias (Short-Term Bearish Pullback):

  • If price retests 1.65–1.68 and fails with weak candle close → shorting opportunity

  • Stop: Just above 1.75 (liquidity grab high)

  • Target 1: 1.48

  • Target 2: 1.34

  • Risk-Reward: 1:2.5+

• Alternate Long Re-Entry Bias (Pullback Buy):

  • If price stabilizes between 1.44–1.48 with VDU + reversal candle

  • Stop: Below 1.40

  • Target 1: 1.65

  • Target 2: 1.75

  • Risk-Reward: 1:2–1:3

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🔮 Forward Bias & Monitoring Plan

• Bias: Pullback in progress after parabolic institutional breakout; possible re-accumulation in 1.44–1.48.

• Invalidation: Clean breakout above 1.75 would resume bullish trend.

• Monitoring Criteria:

  • Look for absorption candles in 1.44–1.48

  • Confirm volume contraction followed by reversal bar

  • Weekly close above 1.65 negates short-term bearish bias

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✅ Trade Summary Format

Selling F9D because price shows signs of post-climactic distribution following an upthrust at SGD 1.75, with stops at SGD 1.75, targeting SGD 1.48 and SGD 1.34 for a risk-reward of 1:2.5,
Confidence Rating: 7.5/10
Key Levels to Watch: 1.48 (critical), 1.65 (resistance retest), 1.30 (deep demand)

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📋 Pre-Trade Execution Checklist

• Price rejection confirmation at resistance (1.65–1.68)?

• Absorption or effort-result divergence at support (1.48)?

• Volume pattern supportive of either distribution or re-accumulation?

• Weekly candle context supportive of bias?

• Clearly defined stop beyond structural invalidation?

Disclaimer:Please note that this analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice. Trading involves significant risk, and you should consult with a financial advisor before making any decisions.

Dividend:  3.48%