Technical analysis of SBS Transit (SGX: S61) on the Daily timeframe covering Dec 2024 – Aug 2025 (~180+ bars). Last traded price: SGD 3.20 (19 Aug 2025).
1. Market Regime Classification
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Current Regime: Trending (Bullish)
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Characteristics:
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Sustained series of higher highs (HH) and higher lows (HL) since March 2025.
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Strong impulsive legs with shallow retracements (mostly <38.2%).
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Volume expansion on breakouts → validates institutional participation.
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2. Market Structure & Order Flow
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Swing Points:
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Dec low: 2.40 (major SL, accumulation base).
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Apr high: 3.01 (first breakout leg).
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May pullback low: 2.68 (HL).
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Jul low: 2.71 (structural HL retest).
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Aug high: 3.23 (current SH).
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Break of Structure (BOS): BOS occurred in Mar above 2.46 (long-term resistance), shifting market regime from range to uptrend.
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Change of Character (CHoCH): None yet; trend remains intact.
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Momentum: No clear momentum decay – bar ranges remain healthy with consistent follow-through.
3. Advanced Volume-Price Relationship (VPR)
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March breakout (2.40 → 3.01):
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Volume spike + wide-range bars = institutional buying.
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May pullback (2.98 → 2.68):
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Declining volume on pullback = corrective nature, not distribution.
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July-August rally (2.71 → 3.23):
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Strong volume expansion = displacement move.
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Recent consolidation at 3.15–3.23 with volume dry-up = breakout preparation.
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Absorption evidence:
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High-volume doji-type bars around 3.10–3.20 show institutional absorption of supply.
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4. Institutional Footprints
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Liquidity Grab: April pullback to 2.77 washed out weak longs before continuation.
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Order Block: Strong bullish order block around 2.68–2.71, likely defended on future retests.
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Fair Value Gap (FVG): Between 2.85–2.95, yet to be retested.
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Displacement: July rally from 2.80s to 3.20s shows institutional aggression.
5. Bar Pattern Recognition
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Continuation signals:
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Multiple small-bodied inside bars around 3.15–3.20 (coiling energy).
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Reversal bars:
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No major bearish engulfing or exhaustion bars yet.
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A single long lower wick at 3.17 suggests demand stepping in.
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Measured Move Projection:
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Initial leg: 2.40 → 3.01 = 0.61.
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Projected target: 3.62 if symmetry plays out.
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6. Multi-Timeframe Confluence
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Weekly timeframe also in clear bullish structure since March 2025.
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Daily and Weekly both aligned bullish → strong timeframe compression.
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Key resistance overhead: psychological 3.50 level.
7. Psychological & Key Levels
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Support: 3.10 (immediate), 2.95 (structural), 2.71 (major).
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Resistance: 3.23 (swing high), 3.30 (round number), 3.50 (psychological).
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ATR (14) ~0.10 → Current daily ranges consistent with trending regime.
8. Risk-Adjusted Setup Identification
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Setup Bias: Continuation long above 3.20 breakout zone.
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Stop Zone: Below 3.10 (structural support).
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Target Zones: 3.30 (short-term), 3.50 (medium-term).
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Risk-Reward: ~1:2.5 if entry at 3.20, stop at 3.10, target at 3.50.
9. Institutional Supply/Demand Analysis
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Demand imbalance evident at 2.68–2.71 zone (order block).
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Supply test ongoing at 3.20–3.23 zone; lack of strong rejection = institutions absorbing supply.
Forward-Looking Bias
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Bias remains bullish continuation unless daily close breaks below 3.10 with volume.
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Key confirmation would be high-volume breakout above 3.23 leading toward 3.30–3.50.
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Risk of false breakout exists if breakout attempt lacks volume expansion.
Trade Summary
Buying SBS Transit (S61) because of sustained bullish structure with institutional absorption at 3.10–3.20 and consolidation before breakout, with stops at 3.10 targeting 3.50 for a 1:2.5 R/R.
Confidence Rating: 8/10
Key Levels to Watch:
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Support: 3.10 / 2.95 / 2.71
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Resistance: 3.23 / 3.30 / 3.50
Execution Checklist Before Trade:
✔ Confirm breakout above 3.23 with volume expansion
✔ Ensure no large bearish engulfing bar rejection
✔ ATR-based stop sizing for volatility adjustment
✔ Monitor for institutional absorption at 3.15–3.20
Disclaimer:Please note that this analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice. Trading involves significant risk, and you should consult with a financial advisor before making any decisions.
Dividend: 6.34%
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