Wilmar - 04 Aug 25

Technical Price Action Analysis – Wilmar International (F34.SI)
Timeframe: Daily (1D)
Exchange: SGX
Date Range: Nov 2024 – 4 Aug 2025
Bars Analyzed: ~180 daily bars
Last Traded Price: SGD 2.94

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🔎 Current Market Regime:

Transitioning from Range to Possible Downtrend

• Structure is beginning to compress after range trading between SGD 2.87–3.08

• Multiple failed attempts to break above 3.08 show exhaustion

• Breakdown test in progress near psychological SGD 2.90 level

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📌 Key Observations & Institutional Footprints

1. Market Structure & Order Flow

• Swing Highs: 3.15 → 3.12 → 3.30 → 3.38 → 3.08 (lower highs)

• Swing Lows: 3.04 → 2.99 → 3.01 → 3.06 → 2.87 (lower lows emerging)

• BOS & CHoCH:

  • CHoCH occurred after 3.38 to 3.01 break (May), confirming loss of bullish momentum

  • BOS confirmed on breakdown below 3.01 in June

• Compression Signs:

  • Tight bar clustering around 2.90–3.00 zone with diminishing candle body size

  • Suggests potential for volatility expansion

• Microstructure:

  • Most recent 5 bars: Bearish engulfing near 3.00 resistance

  • Last bar closed near its low with weak upside follow-through → indicative of seller control

2. Volume-Price Relationship (VPR)

• Climactic Selling Bar (July): Heavy volume on break below 3.00 to 2.87; possible selling climax or demand test

• Volume Cluster Zones:

  • 3.00–3.08 → Distribution volume range (institutional selling zone)

  • 2.87–2.95 → Absorption zone or hidden accumulation (to be validated)

• Recent Action:

  • High volume + small range at 2.95 area → absorption or stalling demand

  • Bearish effort without large result → possible absorption failure

3. Smart Money & Institutional Traps

• Liquidity Grab Evidence:

  • The spike to 3.08 in late July likely trapped late bulls; immediate rejection

  • Formed a false breakout (Upthrust Action in Wyckoff terms)

• Order Block (3.00–3.08):

  • Last significant bullish push before rejection → major institutional sell zone

• Fair Value Gap:

  • Small unfilled gap near 2.91–2.94, likely to get tested on downside probe

4. Bar Pattern Recognition

• Bearish Engulfing Bar (1 Aug):

  • Engulfed prior 2 up days with rising volume

  • High probability of continuation if 2.91 breaks

• Lack of Reversal Bars:

  • No clear hammer or bullish pin bar near recent lows

  • Suggests downside not yet exhausted

• Inside Bars:

  • Recent congestion points to coiled energy around 2.94

5. Multi-Timeframe Confluence

• Likely Weekly Structure:

  • In a corrective wave within larger range; test of 2.87 probable

• Higher Timeframe Compression:

  • Monthly chart (not shown) likely showing equilibrium between 2.85–3.30

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🎯 Actionable Levels and Risk Zones

Level	Significance
3.08	Key supply; failed breakout and institutional sell zone
3.00	Psychological level, now resistance
2.94	Current price and potential breakdown base
2.91	Near-term support; last minor swing low
2.87	July low; key demand test area
2.80	Measured move support target from 3.08 top

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⚖️ Risk Management Framework

• Short Bias Setup:
  Entry below 2.91 confirms weakness

  • Stop: Above 3.00

  • Target 1: 2.87

  • Target 2: 2.80

  • RRR: ~1:2.5

• Invalidation: Sustained bullish close above 3.01 with volume → structural reclaim

• Neutralization Level: Break back above 3.08 would invalidate current bearish bias

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✅ Trade Summary Format

Selling Wilmar Intl (F34.SI) because price broke down from tight range with rising bearish volume and lower high failure at 3.08, with stops at 3.01, targeting 2.87 and 2.80 for a risk-reward of 1:2.5.
Confidence Rating: 7.5/10
Key Levels to Watch: 3.08 (resistance), 2.91 (breakdown trigger), 2.87 (support test), 2.80 (measured target)

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📋 Execution Checklist

• ☐ Confirm breakdown below 2.91 on above-average volume

• ☐ Monitor reaction at 2.87 for demand tail

• ☐ Watch intraday false bounces for re-entry

• ☐ No trade if price holds above 3.00 with bullish structure

Disclaimer:Please note that this analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice. Trading involves significant risk, and you should consult with a financial advisor before making any decisions.

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