Arthur Wang Technical Analysis: August 2025

Sunday, August 31, 2025

UOB - 29 Aug 29

Stock: United Overseas Bank Limited (U11.SI)
Exchange: SGX
Timeframe: Daily
Period Covered: ~Dec 2024 – Aug 2025 (~9 months, ~180 bars)
Last Traded Price: 35.19 SGD

1. Market Structure & Order Flow

Trend Structure:
- Major swing high (SH): 39.20 (Mar 2025) → followed by lower highs at 38.55, 37.36, 36.58.
- Major swing low (SL): 29.00 (Apr 2025) → higher lows at 34.00 and 34.51.
- Current structure: Broad sideways range (34.00 – 37.50) after sharp liquidation in Apr 2025.
Break of Structure (BOS):
- BOS down in Apr 2025 when price collapsed from 38.55 → 29.00.
- Recovery since May shows change of character (CHoCH), but capped under 36.50 resistance.
Momentum Decay:
- Smaller bar ranges in Jul–Aug suggest order flow absorption near 35.50–36.50.

2. Volume–Price Relationship (VPR)

Apr 2025 crash: Very high volume + wide range down → institutional liquidation/panic.
May 2025 rebound: Strong rally off 29.00 with volume expansion, indicating institutional buy absorption.
Recent Aug 2025 consolidation:
- Declining volume + narrow ranges near 35.00–35.50.
- Volume dry-up = potential preparation for next directional move.

3. Institutional Footprints

Liquidity Grab: April low at 29.00 = classic stop hunt under 2023–2024 structural lows, then immediate reversal.
Order Block: Strong bullish candle (early May) marks demand zone around 34.00–34.50.
Fair Value Gap (FVG): 34.50–36.00 region shows repeated re-tests = institutional re-accumulation.
Displacement: Sharp rally from 29.00 → 36.80 without deep retracement confirms institutional flow.

4. Bar Pattern Recognition

Reversal Signals:
- Pin-bar rejection (Apr 2025) at 29.00 with follow-through buying = confirmed bottom.
- Recent doji/spinning tops at 36.50 = supply absorption.
Continuation:
- Current action resembles inside-bar cluster in Aug 2025 = compression before breakout.
Indecision Bars:
- Low volume spinning tops at 35.20 = market awaiting new catalyst.

5. Multi-Timeframe Confluence

Weekly: Higher low confirmed at 29.00, but failing to reclaim 37.50 resistance.
Daily: Compression around 34.50–36.00 forming balance area.
Bias: Neutral-to-bullish as long as 34.00 holds.

6. Psychological & Key Levels

Support: 34.00 (structural low), 34.50 (order block).
Resistance: 36.50–37.50 (multi-tested supply zone), 39.20 (major swing high).
Psychological: Round number 35.00 acting as short-term pivot.

7. Risk-Adjusted Setup Zones

Bullish Setup:
- Entry: near 34.50–35.00 demand.
- Stop: below 34.00 structural low.
- Target: 36.80 → 37.50 (1:2.5–1:3 R:R).
Bearish Setup:
- Breakdown below 34.00 on volume expansion.
- Target: retest 32.00, possibly 29.00.

8. Market Regime Classification

Regime: Transition / Sideways Re-Accumulation
- After April crash, market is in phase B Wyckoff accumulation between 34–37.5.
- Next breakout (up or down) will set directional bias.

9. Institutional Supply/Demand Zones

Demand (Accumulation): 34.00–34.50
Supply (Distribution): 36.50–37.50
Imbalance Area: 35.00–36.00 (thin liquidity zone)

🎯 Trade Summary

Buying UOB (U11.SI) only if price holds above 34.50 demand zone, because absorption and accumulation suggest institutional positioning, with stops below 34.00 targeting 36.80–37.50 for ~1:3 R:R.

Confidence Rating: 7/10 (neutral-bullish, awaiting catalyst/volume expansion)
Key Levels to Watch:
- Support: 34.00 / 34.50
- Resistance: 36.50 / 37.50 / 39.20

📌 Checklist before execution:

Wait for volume confirmation on breakout.
Align trade with broader sector index (STI, bank sector strength).
Position sizing: risk defined strictly below 34.00.

Disclaimer:Please note that this analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice. Trading involves significant risk, and you should consult with a financial advisor before making any decisions.

Dividend: 5.12%

Saturday, August 30, 2025

Sheng Siong - 29 Aug 2025

Stock Name / Ticker: Sheng Siong Group Ltd. (SGX: OV8)
Chart Timeframe: Daily (1D)
Date Range Observed: Jan 2025 – Aug 29, 2025
Bars in Analysis Period: ~160 trading days (8 months)
Last Traded Price: SGD 2.03

1. Market Structure & Order Flow Analysis

Trend Structure:
- Swing Lows (SL): 1.57 (Apr), 1.80 (Jun), 2.03 (Aug)
- Swing Highs (SH): 1.88 (May), 2.23 (Jul)
- Clear uptrend from Apr → Jul (HH/HL sequence).
- Current: CHoCH in Aug with failure to sustain above 2.23 and now testing 2.03 support.
Break of Structure (BOS):
- Jul → Aug: First structural lower high after 2.23 peak.
- Holding 2.03 is critical; loss of this level = downside BOS.
Momentum Assessment:
- Strong impulsive runs Apr–Jul (large wide bars, expanding volume).
- Aug shows decaying momentum → smaller ranges, overlapping bars, reduced volume conviction.

2. Volume-Price Relationship (VPR)

Apr–Jul rally: Wide ranges with strong volume = professional accumulation and markup.
At 2.23: Climactic volume spike with long wick → institutional distribution.
Post-July decline: Volume tapering while price drifts down → weak demand, no aggressive absorption yet.
At 2.03: Notable support retest with no strong rejection yet → institutions not yet stepping in visibly.

3. Institutional Footprint Recognition

Liquidity Grab: The 2.23 top shows stop-hunting → spike above psychological 2.20, then immediate reversal.
Order Block: Bullish order block around 1.80–1.88 still valid → last consolidation before July breakout.
Fair Value Gap (FVG): Apr–May rally left imbalance zone between 1.72–1.82, likely future retest zone.

4. Bar Pattern Recognition

2.23 reversal bar: Long upper wick + high volume = exhaustion shooting star.
Recent bars (Aug): Small-bodied candles around 2.03 → indecision, weak demand response.
No bullish engulfing or hammer present yet → reversal not confirmed.

5. Multi-Timeframe Confluence

Weekly: Strong trend up, but 2.23 rejection forms potential weekly swing high.
Daily: Compression near 2.03 → decision point.
If weekly closes below 2.00 → structural breakdown confirmed.

6. Psychological Levels

Round number: 2.00 is a major psychological + structural support.
Upside reference: 2.20 / 2.23 remains key resistance.
ATR perspective: Recent daily ranges ~0.02–0.05 (normal volatility). A decisive move outside 2.00–2.10 range likely sparks continuation.

7. Risk-Adjusted Setup Identification

Bullish Scenario (if 2.03/2.00 holds):
- Entry near 2.03, stop below 1.95, target retest of 2.20.
- R:R ~ 1:2.1.
Bearish Scenario (if 2.00 breaks):
- Short on breakdown, stop above 2.07, target 1.82 (order block retest).
- R:R ~ 1:3.

8. Market Regime Classification

Transition Regime → trending up until July, now stalling with structural weakness.
Increased volatility, indecisive closes, signs of distribution.

9. Institutional Supply/Demand Analysis

Supply pressure clearly visible above 2.20.
Demand absorption weak at 2.03.
If large players intended to defend, we would expect wide rejection wicks + volume spike, which is not yet seen.

10. Comprehensive Market Context

Consumer staples sector typically defensive → less volatile.
Relative strength: Sheng Siong showed outperformance vs SGX index Apr–Jul.
Current stalling may reflect broader sector rotation.

📌 Key Observations (Highest Conviction)

2.23 = confirmed distribution top with exhaustion volume.
2.03/2.00 = critical demand zone → breakdown would signal strong shift to bearish control.
Order block 1.80–1.88 = next demand test if 2.00 fails.
Volume divergence: Rising price peaked on declining volume = waning demand.
Current regime = distribution to early markdown phase unless 2.00 holds decisively.

✅ Trade Summary

Selling Sheng Siong (SGX: OV8) because price rejected 2.23 with distribution signals and is retesting critical 2.03/2.00 support with weak demand response, with stops at 2.07, targeting 1.82, offering ~1:3 R:R.
Confidence Rating: 7.5/10
Key Levels to Watch: 2.23 (resistance), 2.00 (support), 1.82 (target demand zone).

Checklist Before Execution:

Confirm break + daily close below 2.00.
Watch volume expansion for confirmation of institutional selling.
Adjust stop for slippage in low-liquidity SGX environment.

Friday, August 29, 2025

ComfortDelGro - 29 Aug 25

Stock Name & Ticker Symbol: ComfortDelGro Corporation Limited (SGX: C52)
Chart Timeframe: Daily (Jan – Aug 2025)
Number of Bars in Analysis: ~8 months of trading (≈ 170 bars)
Last Traded Price: SGD 1.45

🔎 Market Structure & Order Flow

Trend Structure Identification
- Swing Lows (SL): 1.34 (Feb), 1.36 (Apr), 1.39 (Jun), 1.40 (Jul), 1.34 (Aug).
- Swing Highs (SH): 1.48 (Jan), 1.47 (Mar), 1.55 (May), 1.64 (Jul), 1.60 (Aug).
- Recent BOS: Break above 1.55 (May) created higher high → continuation to 1.64.
- CHoCH: Breakdown below 1.50 support (Aug) shifted structure from uptrend → transition → bearish bias.
Order Flow Analysis
- Rising move into 1.64 was followed by heavy selling, wide red bars, and volume spikes → distribution phase evidence.
- Recent price rejection from 1.60 → 1.45 confirms strong overhead supply.

📈 Volume-Price Relationship (VPR)

High Volume + Wide Range: Seen at July 2025 run-up to 1.64 → institutional push-up followed by heavy profit-taking.
Absorption: Around 1.45–1.47 zone (current level) → repeated tests with moderate volume but no follow-through.
Volume Divergence: Price peaked at 1.64, but volume on 1.60 retest was lower → exhaustion signal.
Climactic Selling: August breakdown showed a supply-driven move, confirmed by strong red candle clusters.

🏦 Institutional Footprints

Liquidity Grab: Spike above 1.60 (Aug) quickly reversed → clear stop-hunt before distribution.
Order Block: Last bullish cluster at 1.47–1.50 now acting as resistance.
Fair Value Gap: Gap-like inefficiency between 1.47–1.53 likely to be retested before further downside.
Displacement Move: The drop from 1.60 → 1.45 was fast, broad, and volume-backed → smart money offloading.

🕯️ Bar Pattern Recognition

Pin Bar Reversals: Long upper wick near 1.64 (July) signaled exhaustion.
Engulfing Patterns: Bearish engulfing around 1.60 (Aug) confirmed sellers in control.
Inside Bars: Ongoing price compression between 1.40–1.47 → coiled energy before breakout.

⏳ Multi-Timeframe Confluence

Daily Bias: Bearish-to-neutral → trapped between 1.40 support and 1.50 resistance.
Weekly Bias: Large distribution top around 1.60–1.64, rejection confirms shift into consolidation → bearish tilt.
Confluence Zone: 1.47–1.50 = key resistance aligning daily + weekly structure.

💵 Psychological Levels & ATR Context

Round Numbers: 1.40 and 1.50 acting as strong magnets (supply/demand).
ATR Context: Recent wide bars suggest volatility expansion phase → risk management crucial.

🎯 Risk-Adjusted Setup Identification

Stop Placement: Above 1.50–1.53 order block.
Target Zone: Retest of 1.36–1.34 demand zone.
Risk-Reward Estimate: ~1:2 if short from 1.47–1.48 targeting 1.36.

📌 Market Regime Classification

Transition Regime → Bearish Bias.
Evidence: failed breakout above 1.60, volume exhaustion, current consolidation under supply.

⚖️ Institutional Supply/Demand Analysis

Supply Zone: 1.50–1.53 (distribution block).
Demand Zone: 1.36–1.34 (historical demand tested multiple times).
Imbalance: Supply currently overwhelming demand; absorption signs not yet clear.

🔮 Forward-Looking Bias & Key Levels

Upside Resistance: 1.47 / 1.50 / 1.55
Downside Support: 1.40 / 1.36 / 1.34
Bias: Bearish unless daily close above 1.50 confirms structure shift.

✅ Trade Summary

Selling ComfortDelGro (C52) because distribution phase confirmed at 1.60–1.64 with bearish engulfing breakdown, with stops at 1.53 targeting 1.36 for ~1:2 risk-reward.

Confidence Rating: 7.5 / 10
Key Levels to Watch: 1.47 (supply), 1.40 (support), 1.36–1.34 (final demand).
Execution Checklist:
- Confirm daily rejection at 1.47–1.50 zone
- Ensure volume contraction before entry (avoid chasing)
- Align with weekly bearish bias
- Define stop-loss precisely above order block

Thursday, August 28, 2025

Tai Sin Electric - 28 Aug 2025

Tai Sin Electric Limited (SGX: 500) on the daily timeframe (Nov 2024 – Aug 2025)

🔎 Chart Setup & Context

Stock Name & Ticker Symbol: Tai Sin Electric Limited (SGX: 500)
Chart Timeframe & Date Range: Daily, Nov 2024 – Aug 28, 2025
Bars in Analysis Period: ~190 trading days
Last Traded Price: 0.520 SGD

1. Market Structure & Order Flow Analysis

Trend Structure:
- Long consolidation phase (Nov–Jun) between 0.385–0.410 with repeated rejections.
- Break of Structure (BOS): July breakout above 0.410–0.430 initiated a strong uptrend.
- New swing highs: 0.430 → 0.410 → 0.575 (Aug).
- Change of Character (CHoCH): Post-0.575 peak, failure to make higher highs, retracement back to 0.505–0.520 zone.
Momentum Decay:
- Early July–Aug rally had wide impulse bars with expanding volume (strong institutional participation).
- Post-0.575, price shows smaller-bodied candles with overlapping ranges → loss of momentum.

2. Advanced Volume-Price Relationship (VPR)

Accumulation Phase: Nov–Jun → low volatility, steady volume, absorption signs around 0.385–0.410.
Breakout Confirmation: July surge → volume expansion with wide-range candles (professional buying).
Climactic Action: At 0.575 top → high volume + rejection wick → possible profit-taking.
Current Phase: Declining volume on pullback → suggests no aggressive selling yet, potential consolidation.

3. Institutional Footprint Recognition

Liquidity Grab: Sharp push above 0.575 likely triggered retail breakout buys → immediately reversed.
Order Blocks:
- Demand zone: 0.500–0.505 (last bearish candle before breakout run).
- Supply zone: 0.560–0.575 (distribution zone).
Fair Value Gaps (FVG): 0.470–0.490 gap from fast rally may act as magnet if weakness persists.

4. Bar Pattern Recognition

Reversal Bar: 0.575 top formed shooting star-like rejection with strong volume → exhaustion.
Continuation Bars: July rally contained multiple wide-bodied trend bars confirming displacement.
Recent Action: Current candles show lower wicks near 0.505–0.520 = demand defense.

5. Multi-Timeframe Confluence

Weekly Chart Context (higher timeframe bias): Breakout from multi-month base (0.385–0.410) → bullish long-term bias.
Daily Chart: Now in pullback/retracement phase, testing prior breakout structure at 0.505–0.520.
Confluence zone = 0.505–0.520 demand + psychological 0.500.

6. Psychological Level Integration

Key Round Numbers:
- 0.500 → major psychological support.
- 0.600 (unreached) → potential upside magnet.
Previous Highs: 0.575 = strong resistance.
ATR Context: Recent moves expanded ATR from ~0.01 to ~0.03, indicating volatility surge.

7. Risk-Adjusted Setup Identification

Bullish Scenario: Hold above 0.505–0.520 demand → potential retest of 0.560–0.575.
Bearish Scenario: Break below 0.500 → opens gap-fill toward 0.470–0.490.
Risk-Reward Map:
- Long near 0.505 with stops 0.495, target 0.575 → ~1:3 R/R.
- Short only valid if decisive breakdown below 0.495 on volume expansion.

8. Market Regime Classification

Nov–Jun: Ranging regime (accumulation).
Jul–early Aug: Trending regime (strong displacement).
Late Aug: Transition regime (pullback/consolidation).

9. Institutional Supply/Demand

Demand Imbalance: 0.505–0.520 defended repeatedly.
Supply Imbalance: 0.560–0.575 cluster = distribution zone.
Effort vs. Result: High effort near 0.575 with no upside result = institutional selling footprint.

10. Comprehensive Market Context

Sector correlation check required vs. SGX industrial/electrical peers → relative strength analysis.
Stock appears to be in sector rotation accumulation breakout → institutions showing interest.

✅ Trade Summary

Buying Tai Sin Electric Limited (SGX:500) because price is defending institutional demand at 0.505–0.520 after a breakout from multi-month accumulation, with stops at 0.495 targeting 0.575 for ~1:3 R/R.

Confidence Rating: 7.5/10
Key Levels to Watch:
- Support: 0.505–0.520, then 0.495, 0.470.
- Resistance: 0.560–0.575, then 0.600.

📌 Checklist Before Execution:

Confirm higher timeframe support alignment.
Watch intraday volume behavior near 0.505–0.520.
Validate no negative company catalyst undermines technical structure.

Wednesday, August 27, 2025

PropNex - 27 Aug 25

Stock Name & Ticker: PropNex Ltd. (OYY, SGX)
Timeframe: Daily (Jan 2025 – Aug 27, 2025)
Number of Bars in Period: ~165 trading sessions
Last Traded Price: SGD 2.30
Price Range in Period: Low 0.925 → High 2.32

1. Market Structure & Order Flow

Swing Highs (SH): 1.15 (Jan), 1.17 (Mar), 1.17 (Apr), 1.11 (May), 2.32 (Aug high).
Swing Lows (SL): 1.07 (Mar), 0.99 (Apr), 1.00 (Jun), 1.03 (Jul).
Trend Structure:
- Sideways consolidation (Jan–Jul, 0.95–1.20 range).
- Strong breakout in Aug → vertical trend move, +120% gain in ~6 weeks.
Break of Structure (BOS):
- BOS above 1.20 confirmed in July → triggered institutional breakout run.
Current Momentum:
- Bar ranges widening with consistent HH/HL → parabolic trend regime.
- Some overlap in last 5–6 candles → potential momentum cooling near 2.30.

2. Volume-Price Relationship (VPR)

Accumulation: Volume stayed muted during 6-month base (0.95–1.20).
Breakout: Explosive volume expansion in late July, confirming institutional entry.
Climax Behavior: Wide bars + high volume in mid-Aug → potential buying climax.
Recent Action: Last 3 candles show reduced body size with persistent high volume = absorption near 2.30.

3. Institutional Footprints

Liquidity Grab: Sharp flush to 0.925 (June low) before rally = stop-hunt / spring.
Order Block: Demand zone around 1.00–1.10 → base for August rally.
Displacement: Powerful Aug move from 1.20 → 2.20 with minimal retracement = clear institutional displacement.
Fair Value Gap (FVG): Open imbalance left between 1.40–1.60 (likely retest zone if pullback begins).

4. Bar Pattern Recognition

Continuation: Series of strong bullish full-bodied candles (trend confirmation).
Exhaustion Signs: Last few bars = smaller real bodies, some upper wicks → supply emerging at 2.30–2.32.
No major reversal bar yet (no engulfing/pin bar), but tightening range hints at imminent decision.

5. Multi-Timeframe Confluence

Weekly: Breakout from 2-year base (0.90–1.20 zone). Strong macro bullish.
Daily: Extended vertical move, at risk of overextension.
Confluence: Short-term extended but higher timeframe trend intact.

6. Psychological Levels

2.00: Clean psychological breakout level (now support).
2.50: Next round number magnet if breakout sustains.
1.80 & 1.60: Key pullback demand zones if retracement unfolds.

7. Market Regime Classification

Trending Regime: Confirmed strong uptrend.
Warning: Entering potential climactic extension phase with risk of corrective pullback.

8. Risk-Adjusted Setup Zones

Bullish Continuation: If price holds above 2.20–2.25, next leg toward 2.50 possible.
Bearish Risk: Breakdown below 2.20 could trigger retracement to 1.80–1.60 FVG zone.
Stops: Below 2.20 for momentum longs, below 1.95 for swing longs.

9. High-Conviction Observations

Strong breakout from multi-month base – clear institutional buying.
Vertical rally may be in late acceleration phase – potential near-term exhaustion.
Volume absorption near 2.30 suggests supply emerging.
Fair Value Gap 1.40–1.60 is likely retest zone if correction occurs.
Weekly macro remains bullish, but risk of sharp retracement due to extension.

Trade Summary

Bias: Selling OYY because price shows climactic exhaustion near 2.30 after parabolic rally with signs of absorption.
Stops: Above 2.35
Target: 1.80 (first demand zone retest)
Risk-Reward: ~1:3
Confidence Rating: 7/10
Key Levels to Watch: Support 2.20 / 2.00 / 1.80 | Resistance 2.32 / 2.50

✅ Pre-Execution Checklist

Confirm multi-timeframe bias (weekly bullish, daily overextended).
Align with risk tolerance (accept retracement volatility).
Size position based on stop distance, not capital % guesswork.
Monitor volume behavior at 2.20–2.25 (key pivot).

Tuesday, August 26, 2025

Raffles Medical - 26 Aug 25

Raffles Medical (SGX: BSL) – Daily timeframe (Jan–Aug 2025, ~160 bars) with last traded price at 1.01 SGD.

1. Market Structure & Order Flow

Trend Structure:
- Early 2025: sharp markup phase (0.80 → 1.03, Feb–Mar).
- April retrace to 0.90 SL, followed by a new swing high at 1.05 (May) → higher-high, higher-low progression intact.
- June retest low 0.94, then rebound.
- July–Aug: push to 1.09 (SH), followed by rejection and pullback into 0.99–1.01 zone.
- Current regime = transition from trending up → rangebound distribution.
Break of Structure (BOS):
- BOS down noted after 1.09 rejection, with SL formed at 0.99.
- Current lower-highs forming (1.09 → 1.05 → 1.03), signaling momentum decay.
Order Flow Imbalances:
- Institutional supply present around 1.05–1.09 zone (heavy rejection, wide-body down bars).
- Demand test at 0.94–0.99, with buying tails suggesting accumulation interest.

2. Volume-Price Relationship (VPR)

Absorption Zones:
- Mar rally → heavy volume, small retraces → institutional accumulation.
- Aug 1.09 rejection → wide range, high volume → climactic supply bar.
Volume Divergence:
- Successive highs (1.05 → 1.09) on declining volume → weakening buyer pressure.
- Support re-tests near 0.94–0.99 with stabilizing volume → possible absorption.
Clusters:
- Major volume at 0.94–0.99 demand zone, and 1.05–1.09 supply zone → key battlegrounds.

3. Institutional Footprints

Liquidity Grab:
- Aug spike to 1.09 likely stop-run above prior SH (1.05), immediately rejected → classic upthrust (UTAD in Wyckoff terms).
Order Blocks:
- Demand OB: 0.94–0.99 (tested multiple times, buyers defending).
- Supply OB: 1.05–1.09 (institutional distribution zone).
Fair Value Gaps:
- Thin liquidity between 0.96–0.99, repeatedly tested.

4. Bar Pattern Recognition

Reversal Bars:
- Aug rejection bar off 1.09 = wide range engulfing, heavy volume → bearish control.
Continuation Bars:
- Several inside bars post-selloff, indicating coiling near 1.00.
Indecision:
- Current bar (1.01 close) = small body, low conviction → market waiting for breakout trigger.

5. Multi-Timeframe Confluence

Weekly chart bias (higher TF): still in broader uptrend from 0.80 base, but showing distribution near 1.05–1.10.
Daily compression: 1.00 midpoint acting as pivot → repeated rejections and supports.

6. Psychological Levels

1.00 SGD = key psychological battleground (currently at it).
0.90 = prior strong demand base.
1.10 = round number resistance not yet cleared.

7. Market Regime Classification

Current regime: Range/Distribution between 0.94 (support) and 1.09 (resistance).
Transition signals: Lower highs, failed follow-through after 1.09 → sellers gaining control.

8. Key Observations (Highest Conviction)

Institutional upthrust at 1.09 with rejection = supply confirmed.
Demand defended at 0.94–0.99 zone, but repeated tests weaken support.
Volume divergence on highs = buyer exhaustion.
1.00 psychological level = current battleground; break below likely accelerates selling.
Range regime dominates; breakout confirmation required for directional bias.

9. Forward-Looking Bias

Bullish scenario: If 1.00 holds with absorption + breakout above 1.05, retest 1.09–1.10.
Bearish scenario: Failure to hold 0.99–1.00 → liquidity vacuum to 0.94, extended target 0.90.

Trade Summary

Selling Raffles Medical (SGX: BSL) because of institutional upthrust rejection at 1.09 and weakening demand at 1.00, with stops above 1.05 targeting 0.94 for ~1:2.5 risk-reward.
Confidence Rating: 7/10

Key Levels to Watch:

Support: 0.94 / 0.90
Resistance: 1.05 / 1.09
Pivot: 1.00

Execution Checklist Before Trade:
☑ Confirm volume on 1.00 breakdown
☑ Align with higher timeframe bias
☑ Define stop strictly above 1.05
☑ Monitor for false breakdown traps

Monday, August 25, 2025

UMS - 25 aug 25

Stock Name & Ticker: UMS Holdings (SGX: 558)
Chart Timeframe: Daily (Jan – Aug 2025)
Bars Analyzed: ~150 trading sessions (approx. 8 months)
Last Traded Price: SGD 1.40

1. Market Structure & Order Flow

Trend Structure:
- Early year (Jan–Mar): Sideways consolidation between 1.00 – 1.15.
- April: Breakdown to 0.91 low, quickly reclaimed (spring/shakeout).
- May–Jul: Shift to uptrend with higher lows (1.04 → 1.17) and higher highs (1.15 → 1.60).
- Aug: Pullback from swing high 1.60 to 1.35–1.38 support zone.
Key Structural Levels:
- Swing Lows (SL): 0.91, 1.01, 1.04, 1.17
- Swing Highs (SH): 1.15, 1.60
- CHoCH: April reversal at 0.91 confirmed by breakout above 1.15 in June.
Momentum Assessment:
- Strong upward impulse June–July (large green bodies, volume expansion).
- Recent retracement shows momentum decay with overlapping bars and contracting range around 1.35–1.40.

2. Advanced Volume-Price Relationship (VPR)

Absorption Evidence:
- Mar–Apr: High volume but shallow downside follow-through → institutional absorption.
Climactic Action:
- July spike toward 1.60 on expanding volume → possible buying climax.
Pullback Phase:
- Current decline on elevated but decreasing volume, suggesting profit-taking rather than aggressive selling.

3. Institutional Footprints

Liquidity Grab:
- April flush to 0.91 cleared stops below 1.00 before strong reversal (Wyckoff spring action).
Order Block:
- Demand zone around 1.30–1.35 (last bearish order block before breakout toward 1.60).
Fair Value Gap (FVG):
- Gap between 1.25–1.30 left untested, potential revisit zone.

4. Bar Pattern Recognition

Reversal Signals:
- Long lower wicks around 0.91 (spring bottom).
- Current bar cluster at 1.35–1.40 shows attempted hammering but no decisive bullish engulfing yet.
Continuation Setup:
- July rally formed a bullish flag breakout. Current correction is ~38.2% retrace of impulse leg (1.17 → 1.60).

5. Multi-Timeframe Confluence

Weekly View:
- Broad structure bullish; recent decline is a weekly pullback within uptrend.
Daily View:
- Testing support at 1.35–1.40. A higher low vs. 1.17 needed to maintain bullish structure.

6. Psychological Levels

Round Numbers:
- 1.00 (historical floor, strong defense).
- 1.50 & 1.60 (resistance cluster).
- 1.30–1.35 psychological mid-zone (support test ongoing).

7. Market Regime Classification

Current Regime: Transitioning from trending to corrective (pullback phase).
Evidence: Volatility contraction, overlapping bars, decline from recent high.

8. Risk-Adjusted Setup Identification

Bullish Bias Scenario:
- Buy zone: 1.35–1.38 support, stop below 1.30 (structural demand zone).
- Target 1: 1.50, Target 2: 1.60 retest.
- R:R approx. 1:2.5.
Bearish Bias Scenario:
- Breakdown below 1.30 invalidates bullish case. Next downside target 1.17.

High-Conviction Observations

Institutional shakeout confirmed at 0.91 → long-term accumulation footprint.
Strong impulse move June–July validated by volume expansion (institutional drive).
Current decline showing profit-taking rather than distribution (volume decays on red candles).
1.35–1.38 zone is pivotal → structural support + order block.
A higher low above 1.17 is required to sustain macro bullish structure.

✅ Trade Summary

Buying UMS (SGX:558) because price is testing institutional demand at 1.35–1.38 with bullish order block support, with stops at 1.30 targeting 1.50 → 1.60 for a 1:2.5 R:R.
Confidence Rating: 7/10
Key Levels to Watch: Support 1.30–1.35 | Resistance 1.50–1.60 | Invalid below 1.30

🔎 Pre-Execution Checklist:

Confirm bullish reversal candle near 1.35–1.38.
Watch for volume expansion on up-bars.
Place stop beyond structural level, not arbitrary %.
Scale out partial profits at 1.50, trail remainder to 1.60.