Wing Tai - 24 Sep 2025

• Stock Name & Ticker: Wing Tai Holdings Limited (SGX: W05)

• Chart Timeframe: Daily (Jan – Sep 2025)

• Bars in Period: ~9 months of daily data (~180 bars)

• Last Traded Price: SGD 1.41 (24 Sep 2025)

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1. Market Structure & Order Flow

• Macro Structure:

  • Early 2025 downtrend from 1.27 → 1.00 (Apr low).

  • Clear structural reversal after reclaiming 1.22 (BOS).

  • Strong bullish rally: 1.00 → 1.47 (Aug high).

• Current Structure:

  • Market in range/transition regime: 1.34 (support) to 1.47 (resistance).

  • Repeated failures at 1.44–1.47 indicate supply absorption.

  • Momentum decay: smaller candle ranges, tight clustering → institutional distribution signs.

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2. Volume–Price Relationship (VPR)

• Key Observations:

  • High volume + small candle ranges (Aug–Sep) → absorption, likely distribution at highs.

  • Climactic wide bars (Apr & Jul) show institutional footprints in accumulation & markup phases.

  • Current low-to-moderate volume consolidation under resistance → lack of fresh buyers.

  • Volume divergence: price retests highs (1.44–1.47) but on declining volume → weakening demand.

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3. Institutional Footprint Recognition

• Liquidity Grabs: Spike to 1.47 in Aug triggered stops above prior highs (1.44), then immediate reversal → textbook liquidity raid.

• Order Blocks: Bullish OB around 1.28–1.34 (July breakout origin).

• Fair Value Gaps (FVGs): Gap-like inefficiency between 1.22–1.28 may be retested if weakness accelerates.

• Accumulation/Distribution: Current action resembles Wyckoff distribution Phase B/C, testing top supply zone before markdown.

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4. Bar Pattern Recognition

• Reversal Bars: Multiple upper-wick rejections near 1.44–1.47 → exhaustion.

• Continuation Bars: July breakout run was smooth series of higher closes with expanding volume.

• Indecision: Recent cluster of spinning tops/doji around 1.41–1.44 = market indecision.

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5. Multi-Timeframe Confluence

• Weekly chart bias: Still bullish from 1.00 low, but facing heavy resistance.

• Daily chart: Transition from bullish trend → sideways → potential reversal.

• Confluence zone: 1.34–1.35 support critical; breakdown could confirm markdown phase.

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6. Psychological Levels

• Round number: 1.50 rejected just below → psychological cap.

• Key levels:

  • Resistance: 1.44–1.47

  • Support: 1.34 / 1.28 / 1.22

  • Structural low: 1.00

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7. Risk-Adjusted Setup

• Bullish case: Break + close above 1.47 with volume expansion → continuation towards 1.55–1.60.

• Bearish case: Breakdown below 1.34 with volume confirmation → markdown towards 1.28 / 1.22.

• Risk/Reward:

  • Long above 1.47: R:R ≈ 1:2 (Stop 1.40, Target 1.60).

  • Short below 1.34: R:R ≈ 1:3 (Stop 1.42, Target 1.22).

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8. Market Regime

• Current Regime: Distribution → Transition phase.

• Increasing indecision, reduced follow-through, false breakouts → shift from markup to range/distribution.

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9. Institutional Supply/Demand

• Supply zone: 1.44–1.47 (heavy selling pressure).

• Demand zone: 1.28–1.34 (prior breakout retest).

• Effort vs. Result: High effort on highs but little result → clear distribution footprint.

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Forward-Looking Bias

• Market at inflection point:

  • Above 1.47 → bullish continuation.

  • Below 1.34 → bearish markdown.

• Until breakout, sideways chop expected.

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✅ Trade Summary

Selling Wing Tai Holdings (SGX: W05) because distribution footprints and repeated rejections at 1.44–1.47 with weakening volume suggest institutional selling, with stops at 1.48 targeting 1.28 for 1:3 R:R.

• Confidence: 7/10

• Key Levels: Support 1.34 / 1.28 / 1.22 | Resistance 1.44 / 1.47

• Checklist:

  • Confirm volume spike on breakdown

  • Align with sector sentiment

  • Manage risk strictly at structural levels

Disclaimer:Please note that this analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice. Trading involves significant risk, and you should consult with a financial advisor before making any decisions.

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