UOB - 10 Sep 2025

• Stock: United Overseas Bank Limited (U11.SI, SGX)

• Timeframe: Daily (D1)

• Date Range: Jan 2025 – Sep 10, 2025

• Bars in Period: ~180 sessions

• Last Price: 35.48 SGD

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1. Market Structure & Order Flow

• Trend Structure:

  • Early 2025 uptrend into 39.20 high (Mar 2025) → followed by sharp breakdown into 29.00 low (Apr 2025).

  • Post-April: strong rebound, but capped repeatedly near 36–37 zone → market is in a broad range regime (34.00 – 37.50).

• Swing Highs (SH): 37.94, 39.20, 38.98, 38.55, 37.36, 36.58.

• Swing Lows (SL): 36.46, 36.64, 29.00 (capitulation low), 34.00, 34.51, 34.56.

• BOS/CHoCH:

  • BOS (bullish) from 29.00 to 36.80 (Apr–May recovery).

  • CHoCH in Aug with lower highs and failure at 36.58.

• Current Regime: Ranging/Transitional → overlapping price structure with reduced momentum.

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2. Volume–Price Relationship (VPR)

• April 2025: Extreme wide-range down bar with massive volume → institutional capitulation/shake-out at 29.00.

• Rebound Volume: Strong demand absorption (thick green volume bars, Apr–May).

• Recent Bars (Aug–Sep): Lower volume + small spreads → institutional inactivity, market waiting mode.

• Volume Divergence: Rising price into Aug highs (36.58) but declining volume → weakening demand, foreshadowing pullback.

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3. Institutional Footprints

• Liquidity Grab: Break below 34.00 (May) quickly reversed upward → spring-type Wyckoff action.

• Order Blocks:

  • Bullish OB: 34.00–34.50 zone (May low cluster).

  • Bearish OB: 36.50–37.00 zone (Aug–Sep failed rallies).

• Fair Value Gaps: April crash → large imbalance between 33.00–30.00, partly unfilled.

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4. Bar Pattern Recognition

• April Reversal: Wide red → immediate bullish engulfing cluster (institutional reversal signature).

• Inside Bar Compression: July–Aug inside bar cluster before minor breakout to 37.36.

• Recent Bars (Sep): Small-bodied indecision candles → market in transition awaiting catalyst.

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5. Multi-Timeframe Confluence

• Weekly Bias: Sideways consolidation between 34.00 and 37.50.

• Daily Bias: Currently mid-range, neutral.

• Confluence Zone: 34.50–34.00 demand cluster aligning on both weekly & daily.

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6. Psychological Levels

• Round numbers: 35.00 acting as equilibrium pivot.

• Range boundaries: 34.00 (demand) vs. 37.50 (supply).

• ATR suggests normal 1.00–1.20 SGD daily swings.

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7. Risk-Adjusted Setup

• High Probability Zone:

  • Longs near 34.00–34.50 demand cluster, stop below 33.80.

  • Shorts near 36.80–37.50 supply, stop above 37.80.

• Targets:

  • Long → 36.50 (R:R ≈ 1:3).

  • Short → 34.50 (R:R ≈ 1:2.5).

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8. Market Regime

• Classification: Ranging / Distributional Bias.

• Price trapped between institutional supply at 37.00+ and demand at 34.00.

• Frequent false breakouts → retail whipsaw environment.

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9. Institutional Supply/Demand

• Demand Zone: 34.00–34.50 → strong absorption from April rebound.

• Supply Zone: 36.50–37.50 → repeated rejections with absorption.

• Effort vs. Result: Large volume at 37.00 but no follow-through → smart money distributing.

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🎯 Trade Summary

• Bias: Range-bound, fade extremes.

• Setup:

  • Buying U11 near 34.00 because it is an institutional demand zone, with stops at 33.80, targeting 36.50 for a 1:3 R:R.

  • Selling U11 near 37.00 because of repeated institutional absorption, with stops at 37.80, targeting 34.50 for a 1:2.5 R:R.

• Confidence: 7/10 (range trading clarity, but requires patience).

• Key Levels to Watch: 34.00, 34.50, 35.00 pivot, 36.50, 37.50.

📋 Pre-Execution Checklist:
☑ Confirm volume at entry zone (look for absorption/reversal bar).
☑ Avoid chasing mid-range price (low edge zone).
☑ Align with higher timeframe confirmation (weekly closes).
☑ Size position for stop distance, not emotional conviction.

Disclaimer:Please note that this analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice. Trading involves significant risk, and you should consult with a financial advisor before making any decisions.

Dividend:   5.07%