Keppel Ltd (SGX: BN4) on the Daily timeframe
1. Market Structure & Order Flow
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Trend Structure:
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Clear uptrend from Apr 2025 low at 5.61.
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Higher Highs (HH): 6.89 → 6.97 → 6.90 → 8.84.
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Higher Lows (HL): 6.57 → 6.90 → 7.50 → 8.40 (approx).
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Break of Structure (BOS): July breakout above 7.00–7.10 resistance turned into accelerated rally.
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Current Phase: Since Aug peak at 8.84, price is consolidating sideways in tight range 8.50–8.84.
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Momentum Decay: Recent daily bars show smaller ranges with overlapping closes → early signs of trend exhaustion / absorption.
2. Volume-Price Relationship (VPR)
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April–July: Wide range up-bars with volume expansion = institutional accumulation and breakout drive.
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August top (8.84): Spike in volume with long wicks → potential climactic buying and retail FOMO.
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Current (Sep): Noticeable volume dry-up while price holds near highs → suggests absorption (institutions accumulating supply) rather than immediate reversal.
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Key Note: If breakout occurs, need volume expansion > average to confirm institutional push.
3. Institutional Footprints
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Liquidity Grab: April washout at 5.61 (large red bar with capitulation volume) → classic spring/shakeout.
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Order Blocks:
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Bullish OB at 6.50–6.70 (pre-rally consolidation).
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New OB forming around 8.40–8.50 (support base for potential breakout).
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Fair Value Gap (FVG): May rally left untested inefficiencies between 7.00–7.30 – possible revisit if breakdown.
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Displacement Moves: The May–July run was sharp with little retracement → pure institutional pressure.
4. Bar Pattern Recognition
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Reversal Signs:
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No confirmed bearish engulfing yet, but Aug candle with rejection near 8.84 is a cautionary supply signal.
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Continuation Signs:
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Multiple inside bars forming near 8.65 → coiled energy for potential breakout.
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Indecision: Repeated small-bodied candles near highs = tug of war.
5. Multi-Timeframe Confluence
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Weekly: Strong bullish structure with minor pause.
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Daily: Sideways range = compression.
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Bias: Higher timeframe trend bullish → daily range is likely re-accumulation unless breakdown below 8.40.
6. Psychological & Key Levels
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Round numbers: 9.00 is next psychological magnet.
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Support: 8.40 (short-term), 8.00 (medium-term).
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Resistance: 8.84 (swing high), 9.00 (round number).
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ATR: Current daily ATR compressed to ~0.20–0.25 → volatility contraction.
7. Market Regime
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Primary: Uptrend.
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Current Micro: Transition phase → consolidation after rally.
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Implication: Next expansion likely to define direction.
8. Risk-Adjusted Trade Setup
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Bullish Scenario (higher probability):
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Breakout >8.84 with volume expansion → targets 9.20–9.50.
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Bearish Scenario (less likely, but possible):
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Breakdown <8.40 → test of 8.00, then 7.50.
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Stops: For longs, place below 8.35; for shorts, above 8.90 if fading.
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Risk-Reward: Long setup offers ~1:3 toward 9.50 if supported by breakout volume.
🔑 Trade Summary
Buying BN4 (Keppel Ltd) because consolidation near highs with volume absorption suggests re-accumulation; stops at 8.35 targeting 9.20–9.50 for 1:3 RR.
Confidence Rating: 7/10 (bullish bias, but breakout confirmation needed).
Key Levels to Watch:
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Support: 8.40 / 8.00
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Resistance: 8.84 / 9.00 / 9.50
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Catalyst Watch: Earnings-related follow-through & sector strength
📋 Checklist Before Execution:
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Confirm breakout with above-average volume
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Align trade with weekly uptrend bias
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Manage risk with stop below consolidation floor
Disclaimer:Please note that this analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice. Trading involves significant risk, and you should consult with a financial advisor before making any decisions.
Dividend: 3.93%
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