Metro Holdings - 30 Sep 2025

• Stock Name & Code: Metro Holdings Ltd (M01.SI)

• Timeframe: Daily (1D)

• Date Range: Jan 2025 – Sep 2025 (~200 bars)

• Last Traded Price: 0.520 SGD

• Range Observed: Low 0.305 – High 0.595

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1. Market Structure & Order Flow

• Macro Structure:

  • Downtrend from Jan → Apr (0.475 → 0.305).

  • Accumulation base May–Jun (0.305–0.415).

  • Break of structure (BOS) in Aug above 0.470 resistance, shifting regime to bullish.

  • Recent rally peaked at 0.595 (Sep) followed by sharp retracement to 0.520.

• Swing Highs (SH): 0.435 → 0.415 → 0.470 → 0.480 → 0.595

• Swing Lows (SL): 0.400 → 0.305 → 0.360 → 0.385 → 0.405

• Trend Momentum:

  • Aug–Sep: Expansion phase with wide bodies and large volume.

  • Post-peak: Decay visible with overlapping bars, sign of profit-taking and short-term exhaustion.

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2. Volume-Price Relationship (VPR)

• Accumulation (May–Jul): Flat price with rising volume near 0.360–0.405 = absorption by strong hands.

• Breakout (Sep): Wide-range bars on massive volume → institutional breakout confirmed.

• Recent Pullback: Declining volume on red candles after 0.595 → profit-taking, not aggressive selling.

• Volume Divergence: Price made new high (0.595) but volume did not exceed initial breakout spike → possible short-term exhaustion.

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3. Institutional Footprints

• Liquidity Grab: Spike above 0.480 cleared stop orders, followed by explosive rally = clear smart money trigger.

• Order Block: Bullish order block at 0.405–0.415 (last down bar before rally).

• Fair Value Gap (FVG): 0.445–0.470 (thin liquidity zone, likely to be retested).

• Displacement: Strong move Sep 15–22 confirmed institutional sponsorship.

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4. Bar Pattern Recognition

• Breakout Candle (Sep mid): Large green bar, high volume → continuation.

• Exhaustion Bar (0.595 high): Long wick, heavy volume = buying climax.

• Last 3 bars: Inside bar + narrow ranges at 0.520 → consolidation base forming.

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5. Multi-Timeframe Confluence

• Weekly chart bias = Bullish (shifted trend).

• Daily = pullback within bullish structure.

• Key confluence zones:

  • Support: 0.480 (previous breakout level)

  • Demand: 0.405–0.415 (order block)

  • Resistance: 0.595 (recent high, supply zone)

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6. Psychological Levels

• 0.500: Key round number support, tested and holding.

• 0.600: Psychological resistance, rejected on first test.

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7. Risk-Adjusted Setup

• Bias: Bullish continuation after pullback.

• Entry Zone: 0.480–0.520 consolidation.

• Stop Placement: Below 0.470 (last BOS).

• Targets:

  • TP1 = 0.595 retest (1:2 R:R).

  • TP2 = 0.650 measured move extension (1:3 R:R).

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8. Market Regime Classification

• Current Regime: Transition → Trending Bullish.

• Reason: Clear structural BOS, strong institutional volume, but short-term exhaustion.

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9. Institutional Supply/Demand

• Demand Zone: 0.405–0.415 (strong accumulation).

• Supply Zone: 0.595–0.600 (distribution).

• Imbalance Zone: 0.445–0.470 (likely to act as magnet if deeper pullback occurs).

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✅ Forward Bias & Trade Summary

• Buying Metro Holdings (M01.SI) because institutional breakout confirmed above 0.480 with absorption and consolidation at 0.520.

• Stops: 0.470

• Targets: 0.595 (TP1), 0.650 (TP2)

• Risk-Reward: 1:2.5 approx.

• Confidence Rating: 7.5/10 (solid institutional footprints, but near-term exhaustion risk).

• Key Levels to Watch: 0.480 (support), 0.520 (pivot), 0.595 (resistance).

📋 Execution Checklist Before Trade:

• Confirm higher timeframe bias → bullish ✅

• Validate volume confirmation → absorption + breakout ✅

• Set predefined stops/targets ✅

• Monitor catalysts/news for sustained flow ⚠

Disclaimer:Please note that this analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice. Trading involves significant risk, and you should consult with a financial advisor before making any decisions.

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