Guocoland - 12 Sep 2025

• Stock Name & Ticker: GuocoLand Limited (SGX: F17)

• Chart Timeframe & Date Range: Daily, Jan–Sep 2025

• Number of Bars: ~180 daily bars

• Last Traded Price (12 Sep 2025): SGD 2.01

• Range Covered: Low 1.35 → High 2.03

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🔎 Market Structure & Order Flow

• Trend Structure:

  • Early 2025: Range-bound (1.43–1.50) with flat structure.

  • Apr 2025: Sharp sell-off to 1.35, creating structural swing low (SL).

  • May–Jun: Base around 1.41–1.45.

  • Jul–Sep: Explosive bullish trend with higher highs/lows → 1.77 → 2.01.

• Break of Structure (BOS):

  • BOS above 1.50 (June), confirming upside shift.

  • Secondary BOS at 1.77 (Aug), continuation of trend.

• Momentum:

  • Bars show wide ranges + strong follow-through.

  • Minimal overlapping → strong trend conviction.

  • Momentum remains intact; no major CHoCH (change of character) yet.

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📈 Volume–Price Relationship (VPR)

• Accumulation Zone: Jan–Jun → Low volume with flat structure (institutional quiet accumulation).

• Breakout Volume: Jul upward breakout from 1.50 accompanied by volume expansion, confirming institutional drive.

• Absorption Evidence: Several sessions with large volume but limited downside progress, showing strong hands absorbing selling.

• Volume Divergence: Current push to 2.01 still supported by higher volume → no divergence yet.

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🏦 Institutional Footprints

• Liquidity Grab: Sharp April dip to 1.35 likely a stop sweep before rally (classic Wyckoff spring).

• Order Block: 1.40–1.45 region represents the last bearish order block before rally.

• Fair Value Gap (FVG): Between 1.55–1.65 (thin liquidity zone), may be retested in future.

• Displacement Move: July rally was a displacement leg (fast repricing) → institutional footprint.

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🕯 Bar Pattern Recognition

• Continuation: Multiple bullish marubozu-style candles July–Sep → strong trend bars.

• Pullbacks: Shallow retracements (<38%) → trend continuation typical.

• No Strong Reversal Bars Yet: No major bearish engulfing or supply tails; bulls still control.

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⏳ Multi-Timeframe Confluence

• Daily (shown): Strong uptrend intact.

• Weekly Bias: Likely showing a major breakout from multi-year base.

• Monthly Bias: Transition from accumulation to markup phase.

• Confluence: Bullish across higher timeframes.

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💵 Psychological Levels

• Round Numbers:

  • 2.00 tested and slightly breached (2.03). Key psychological battleground.

  • Next upside magnet: 2.20 (major round).

• Supports:

  • 1.90 (minor)

  • 1.77 (major breakout level)

  • 1.50 (structural base support).

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📊 Risk-Adjusted Setup

• Trend Regime: Strong trending (markup phase).

• Optimal Entry: Pullback toward 1.90–1.95 zone with absorption.

• Stops: Below 1.77 (trend invalidation).

• Targets: 2.20 (short-term), 2.35–2.40 (medium-term).

• Risk–Reward: Entry 1.95 → Stop 1.77 → Target 2.20 = ~1:1.4. Extended target 2.35 = 1:2.2.

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🎯 Forward-Looking Bias

• Bias: Bullish continuation until 2.20 unless sharp rejection appears at 2.00–2.05.

• Key Watchpoints:

  • Can price hold above 2.00 psychological level?

  • Does volume sustain, or do we see drying up with exhaustion tails?

  • Watch 1.95 → demand test zone.

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✅ Trade Summary

Buying GuocoLand (F17) because of strong institutional-led breakout above 1.77 with absorption at higher levels, with stops at 1.77 targeting 2.20–2.35 for a 1:1.4 to 1:2.2 risk-reward ratio.
Confidence Rating: 8.5/10
Key Levels: Support 1.77 / 1.90, Resistance 2.20 / 2.35

Checklist Before Execution:

• Confirm volume expansion at 2.00 breakout.

• Wait for pullback to 1.90–1.95 zone for risk-defined entry.

• Track sector/market correlation for relative strength confirmation.

Disclaimer:Please note that this analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice. Trading involves significant risk, and you should consult with a financial advisor before making any decisions.

Dividend:   2.99%