OCBC - 15 Sep 2025

Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation Limited (O39.SI) – Daily Chart (SGX) covering Jan–Sep 2025 (~180 bars) with last traded price at SGD 16.82:

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1. Market Regime Classification

• Current Regime: Range-Bound / Transition

  • Price oscillating between 16.40–17.50 since June.

  • Failed breakout attempts above 17.45–17.93 (distribution signs).

  • Support repeatedly tested at 16.40–16.50 with absorption volume.

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2. Market Structure & Order Flow

• Swing Highs (SH): 17.93 (Mar), 17.52 (Apr), 17.45 (Jul).

• Swing Lows (SL): 14.35 (Apr panic low), 15.80 (Jun), 16.50 (Aug).

• BOS/CHoCH:

  • April: Sharp BOS down → break below 16.40 (strong institutional dump).

  • June: CHoCH upward with reclaim above 16.40 → re-accumulation.

  • August–Sep: No HH formed → momentum decay, transitioning to sideways.

• Trend Momentum: Slowing; bar overlap increasing, range tightening around 16.70–16.90.

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3. Volume–Price Relationship (VPR)

• April 2025: Capitulation volume with wide-range down bar to 14.35 (climactic sell → institutional buy absorption).

• July rally: Price to 17.45 on declining volume → volume divergence (weak follow-through).

• Aug–Sep consolidation: Volume compression at 16.60–16.90, suggests absorption accumulation.

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4. Institutional Footprints

• Liquidity Grab: April low at 14.35 = clear stop-hunt under 16.35–16.40 liquidity pool.

• Order Blocks:

  • Bullish OB: 15.80–16.00 zone (June demand origin).

  • Bearish OB: 17.40–17.60 zone (July supply origin).

• Fair Value Gaps: Gaps created April crash (16.20–15.00) mostly filled by July rally.

• Accumulation/Distribution: Current structure resembles Wyckoff re-accumulation between 16.40–17.50.

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5. Bar Pattern Recognition

• April: Wide-range outside bar (institutional shakeout).

• July top: Multiple upper-wick rejection bars → supply dominance.

• Recent action (Sep): Small-bodied indecision bars (spinning tops, dojis) at mid-range → compression before expansion.

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6. Multi-Timeframe Confluence

• Weekly chart bias (higher TF): Still in sideways channel 16.00–18.00.

• Daily chart (this analysis): Trading near mid-range; no trend confirmation yet.

• Intraday (lower TF): Flat structure, awaiting breakout.

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7. Psychological Levels

• Round Numbers:

  • 17.00 = repeated rejection, strong psychological ceiling.

  • 16.50 = short-term pivot, support repeatedly defended.

• ATR: Current bar ranges compressed ~0.15–0.20 vs earlier ~0.40–0.60 → volatility contraction.

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8. Risk-Adjusted Setup Zones

• Bullish scenario:

  • Entry near 16.60–16.70 absorption zone.

  • Stop below 16.40 (structural SL).

  • Target 17.50 (supply test).

  • Risk-Reward: ~1:3.

• Bearish scenario:

  • Breakdown below 16.40 with volume expansion.

  • Stop above 16.70.

  • Target 15.80 then 15.00.

  • Risk-Reward: ~1:2.

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9. Key Conviction Observations

1. April crash + recovery = institutional accumulation footprint.

2. Declining volume on July rally = weak hands buying, distribution zone.

3. Current 16.60–16.90 consolidation = smart money absorption before expansion.

4. Price coiling tightly with volatility squeeze = imminent directional move.

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🔑 Key Levels to Watch

• Support: 16.40, 15.80, 14.35

• Resistance: 17.00, 17.45, 17.93

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📌 Trade Summary

[Buying] O39.SI because price is consolidating above key 16.40 demand zone with signs of absorption, with stops at 16.35 targeting 17.50 for ~1:3 R:R.
Confidence Rating: 7/10

✅ Checklist Before Execution:

• Wait for breakout volume confirmation (>2x avg daily volume).

• Avoid entry inside tight 16.60–16.90 chop zone.

• Define stop beyond structural low (not arbitrary %).

• Scale partials near 17.00 psychological resistance.

Disclaimer:Please note that this analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice. Trading involves significant risk, and you should consult with a financial advisor before making any decisions.

Dividend:   5.05