SIA - 12 Sep 2025

• Stock: Singapore Airlines Ltd. (SGX: C6L)

• Timeframe: Daily (1D)

• Analysis Period: ~9 months (Jan 2025 – Aug 2025), ~170–180 bars

• Last Traded Price: 6.54 SGD (26 Aug 2025)

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1. Market Structure & Order Flow

• Trend Structure:

  • Swing Highs (SH): 6.94 (Mar), 6.87 (Apr), 7.18 (Jun), 7.63 (Jul).

  • Swing Lows (SL): 6.25 (Feb), 5.90 (Apr), 6.68 (Jun), 6.50 (Aug).

  • Clear higher high structure from Apr → Jul, but trend broke down after 7.63 top (July).

  • Current price is consolidating near 6.50 support, suggesting potential range-bound market after an uptrend exhaustion.

• Break of Structure (BOS):

  • BOS occurred after 7.63 → 6.50 drop in Aug with high volume, signaling distribution phase.

• Momentum Decay:

  • Noticeable smaller bar ranges and overlapping candles post-August → confirming loss of momentum.

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2. Volume-Price Relationship (VPR)

• High Volume + Wide Range:

  • April selloff into 5.90 low = panic selling + institutional absorption (spring action).

• Volume Clusters:

  • July rally into 7.63 accompanied by increasing volume → institutional push.

  • August breakdown with high volume = distribution confirmed.

• Volume Divergence:

  • June–July highs (7.18 → 7.63) had less aggressive volume expansion, signaling weaker participation near top.

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3. Institutional Footprints

• Liquidity Grab:

  • Sharp April drop below 6.00 → liquidity grab, reversed quickly (spring action).

• Order Block Formation:

  • 6.50–6.60 zone now acting as demand/order block where accumulation/distribution tests occur.

• Fair Value Gap (FVG):

  • Gap-like inefficiency in Apr selloff (6.57 → 5.90) later retraced fully.

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4. Bar Pattern Recognition

• Reversal Bars:

  • April low (5.90) showed a hammer-like reversal with climactic volume.

• Continuation Bars:

  • July rally had multiple bullish marubozu candles, strong conviction.

• Indecision Bars:

  • August–September consolidation near 6.50–6.60 shows multiple dojis and spinning tops → stalling, waiting for direction.

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5. Multi-Timeframe Confluence

• Weekly Chart (HTF bias): Still in long-term uptrend since 2023, but current daily timeframe is in distribution/consolidation phase.

• Daily Support/Resistance Zones:

  • Major resistance: 7.20 – 7.63

  • Major support: 6.50 – 5.90

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6. Psychological & Key Levels

• Round Number Levels: 6.50 (holding as support), 7.00 (psychological barrier).

• ATR Context: Current daily ATR ~0.15–0.20 → range contraction signals volatility squeeze.

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7. Market Regime Classification

• Current Regime: Transition from Uptrend → Range/Distribution.

• Volatility increased on breakdown, now settling into sideways consolidation near 6.50.

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8. Risk-Adjusted Setup Identification

• High-Probability Zone:

  • Long only if 6.50 holds with volume absorption → target back to 6.80–7.00.

  • Short if 6.50 breaks on strong volume → downside target 6.25 → 5.90.

• Stops:

  • Long setup → stop below 6.40

  • Short setup → stop above 6.70

• Risk/Reward:

  • Long setup = 1:2.5 (Entry: 6.55 / Stop: 6.40 / Target: 7.00).

  • Short setup = 1:2 (Entry: 6.48 / Stop: 6.70 / Target: 6.00).

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📊 Trade Summary

Selling C6L because price failed to hold above 6.63 after distribution from 7.63 top, with stops at 6.70 targeting 6.00 for 1:2 RRR.
Confidence Rating: 7/10

• Key Levels to Watch: 6.50 (support), 6.00 (major demand zone), 7.00 (psychological resistance).

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✅ Pre-Trade Checklist

• Confirm HTF structure bias

• Watch for volume confirmation near 6.50

• ATR check (low volatility → breakout incoming)

• News catalyst alignment

Disclaimer:Please note that this analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice. Trading involves significant risk, and you should consult with a financial advisor before making any decisions.

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