Raffles Medical - 03 Sep 2025

• Stock Name & Ticker Symbol: Raffles Medical Group Ltd (SGX: BSL)

• Chart Timeframe & Date Range: Daily (1D), covering ~1 year (Sep 2024 – Sep 2025)

• Number of Bars in Analysis: ~250 trading sessions

• Last Traded Price: SGD 1.01 (03 Sep 2025 close)

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1. Market Structure & Order Flow

• Trend Structure:

  • Long decline from 0.93 → 0.82 (Sep 2024 – Feb 2025) → new swing low (SL) at 0.82.

  • Sharp impulse rally March–May 2025: 0.82 → 1.05, with multiple swing highs (SH) at 1.03, 1.05.

  • Subsequent retests formed support zones: 0.90, 0.94, 0.99.

  • Current market structure: Ranging between 0.99 – 1.05, following the July peak at 1.09.

• BOS/CHoCH Points:

  • BOS: March 2025, break above 0.90 resistance → trend reversal confirmed.

  • CHoCH: Post-July 2025, failure to hold 1.09 led to lower highs, signaling loss of bullish momentum.

• Momentum Assessment:

  • Strong momentum in Mar–May rally with wide-bodied candles + expanding volume.

  • Recent bars show tight ranges around 1.00, overlapping candles, indicating momentum decay → transition to range regime.

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2. Volume-Price Relationship (VPR)

• Absorption Evidence: High volume spikes (Aug 2025) with limited directional movement suggest institutional absorption around 1.00.

• Climactic Action: March rally had wide candles + heavy volume, suggesting strong institutional participation.

• Volume Divergence: Price retested highs (1.09) in July, but volume was weaker vs. March/May rally → distribution likely.

• Volume Clusters: Strong cluster at 0.95–1.00 zone = institutional support/demand.

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3. Institutional Footprints

• Liquidity Grabs: April & July pullbacks wicked below support (0.90, 0.99) before bouncing → stop runs.

• Order Blocks: Bullish order block around 0.90–0.94 (last down move before Mar rally).

• Fair Value Gap (FVG): Between 0.96–0.99, price keeps revisiting this range → balanced trading zone.

• Displacement Moves: Mar rally was a clear institutional displacement, price traveled 25% in 6 weeks.

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4. Bar Pattern Recognition

• Reversals:

  • May high (1.05) → bearish engulfing with volume → start of distribution.

  • July high (1.09) → shooting star wick rejection → retail trap.

• Continuation/Range:

  • Inside bar clusters at 0.99–1.01 reflect indecision + buildup of energy.

  • Compression near 1.00 = potential breakout staging.

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5. Multi-Timeframe Confluence

• Weekly Chart Context (higher TF bias):

  • Weekly structure = range-bound between 0.90 – 1.10.

  • Daily compression aligns with weekly supply zone at 1.05–1.09.

• Confluence Zone:

  • 0.99–1.01 = overlapping daily/weekly demand zone.

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6. Psychological Levels

• Round number 1.00 acting as a pivot zone.

• Below 1.00 → liquidity grab risk down to 0.95.

• Above 1.05 → breakout attempt towards 1.10.

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7. Risk-Adjusted Setup Identification

• Stop placement: Below 0.94 (structural demand zone).

• Profit targets:

  • Near-term resistance: 1.05

  • Extended: 1.09

• Risk-to-reward: 1:2 if long from 1.00 with stops at 0.94 and target 1.09.

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8. Market Regime Classification

• Current regime: Ranging / Transitional

• High volatility spikes, failed breakouts, compression → market in balance, awaiting catalyst.

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9. Institutional Supply/Demand

• Demand Zone: 0.94–1.00 (absorbing liquidity).

• Supply Zone: 1.05–1.09 (distribution pressure).

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✅ Forward-Looking Bias

• Bias: Neutral-to-bullish while above 0.99 support; bearish if 0.94 breaks.

• Key Levels to Watch:

  • Support: 0.94, 0.99

  • Resistance: 1.05, 1.09

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🎯 Trade Summary

Buying Raffles Medical (SGX: BSL) because institutional absorption around 1.00 suggests accumulation, with stops at 0.94 targeting 1.09 for ~1:2 R/R.
Confidence Rating: 6.5/10 (neutral regime, requires breakout confirmation).

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Checklist Before Execution:
☑ Confirm higher timeframe alignment
☑ Check volume confirmation on breakout
☑ Respect stop placement (below 0.94)
☑ Scale partials near 1.05 resistance

Disclaimer:Please note that this analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice. Trading involves significant risk, and you should consult with a financial advisor before making any decisions.

Dividend:  2.48%