DBS - 17 Sep 2025

• Stock: DBS Group Holdings Ltd (D05.SGX)

• Timeframe: Daily (Jan 2025 – Sep 2025)

• Bars in analysis period: ~180 (YTD progression)

• Last traded price: SGD 51.47

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1. Market Structure & Order Flow

• Trend Structure:

  • Swing Low (SL): 43.12 (Feb), 43.92 (Apr), 43.02 (Jun)

  • Swing High (SH): 45.44 (Jan), 46.85 (Mar), 46.97 (Apr), 51.45 (Aug), 53.24 (Sep – YTD high).

  • Clear higher highs & higher lows from June onward → confirmed uptrend.

• Break of Structure (BOS): Occurred in Jul when price broke above 45.55 consolidation ceiling.

• Change of Character (CHoCH): Late Aug/early Sep as price broke prior swing high (51.45) into new territory.

• Momentum: Strong from Jul–Sep, but last 3 sessions show narrow bars with overlapping ranges → trend momentum slowing.

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2. Volume-Price Relationship (VPR)

• Volume Expansion: Sharp spikes on downside April (distribution) and breakout July (accumulation).

• Absorption Evidence: July–Aug saw consistent buying with moderate volume but strong directional closes → institutional accumulation.

• Recent Volume: Declining during last push to 53.24 → volume divergence (higher price, lower volume = possible exhaustion).

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3. Institutional Footprint

• Liquidity Grab: April breakdown below 44 flushed weak hands, quickly reversed → spring action (Wyckoff accumulation).

• Order Blocks: Key bullish order block around 43–45 zone (accumulation).

• Fair Value Gap (FVG): Open gap around 47–48 from Jul breakout → potential magnet on retracement.

• Displacement Moves: Jul–Aug rally was institutional with minimal retracement.

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4. Bar Pattern Recognition

• August: Strong bullish wide-range bars confirmed breakout.

• September: Shooting star–like rejection at 53.24, followed by smaller-bodied candles = potential exhaustion top.

• Inside Bars: Several forming at 51–52 = coiling energy for next move.

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5. Multi-Timeframe Confluence

• Weekly structure: Higher timeframe shows sustained bullish trend with fresh highs.

• Daily compression: Sideways at 51–52 consolidating near highs = either re-accumulation or distribution.

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6. Psychological Levels

• Round numbers: 50 acted as strong breakout base; 55 is next psychological resistance.

• ATR Context: Recent daily bars show contraction → possible volatility expansion coming.

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7. Market Regime Classification

• Current regime: Trending to transitional. Strong trend into Aug–Sep, now consolidating at highs.

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8. Institutional Supply/Demand

• Demand zone: 47–48 (order block + FVG fill).

• Supply zone: 53–54 (recent high rejection + low volume at peak).

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Key Observations

1. Uptrend intact but signs of exhaustion at 53.24 high.

2. Volume divergence (price up, volume down) → caution on continuation.

3. High-level consolidation at 51–52 may be re-accumulation or topping.

4. Institutional footprint shows demand zone 47–48 as key support.

5. Failure to reclaim 53.24 quickly would likely trigger retracement.

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Trade Summary

• Bias: Selling D05 because price shows exhaustion near 53.24 with volume divergence

• Stops: Above 53.60 (failed breakout invalidation)

• Target: 48.00 (order block + FVG fill)

• Risk-Reward: ~1:3

• Confidence: 7/10

Key Levels to Watch:

• Support: 50.00, 48.00, 47.00

• Resistance: 53.24, 55.00

✅ Pre-Trade Checklist Reminder

• Confirm volume on breakdown below 51

• Monitor sector/market index correlation

• Size position per risk tolerance (≤2% risk rule)

Disclaimer:Please note that this analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice. Trading involves significant risk, and you should consult with a financial advisor before making any decisions.

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