Hafary Holdings - 23 Sep 2025

• Stock: Hafary Holdings Limited (5VS)

• Exchange: SGX

• Timeframe: Daily (Sep 2024 – Sep 2025)

• Bars in view: ~12 months

• Last traded price: SGD 0.530

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1. Market Structure & Order Flow Analysis

• Trend structure:

  • Clear transition from accumulation (Nov–Apr, 0.26–0.37 range) into a strong uptrend (May–Sep).

  • Swing Lows (SL): 0.260 → 0.290 → 0.445

  • Swing Highs (SH): 0.325 → 0.370 → 0.525 → 0.600

  • Market structure: Higher highs & higher lows (bullish trend intact).

• Break of Structure (BOS): Occurred in July when price broke 0.370 resistance decisively with volume expansion.

• Change of Character (CHoCH): Minor pullback around Sep (0.445), but price held structure.

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2. Advanced Volume-Price Relationship (VPR) Analysis

• Volume expansion: Seen strongly in July during breakout (0.370 → 0.525).

• Absorption: August showed high volume, small body candles near 0.510–0.525, suggesting institutional accumulation.

• Volume divergence: Price made new high (0.600) but volume did not expand significantly → possible short-term exhaustion.

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3. Institutional Footprint Recognition

• Liquidity grab: Spike to 0.600 looks like a stop hunt before price retraced back to 0.510–0.530 support.

• Order block: Demand zone at 0.445–0.465 (last down bar before the sharp rally).

• Fair Value Gap (FVG): Between 0.480–0.510, partially filled on pullback.

• Accumulation phase: Nov–Apr base formation.

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4. Bar Pattern Recognition

• Reversal signals: Long upper wick rejection at 0.600 (potential exhaustion).

• Continuation patterns: Current price action forming a tight consolidation between 0.510–0.530 → potential re-accumulation.

• Inside bars: Multiple inside bar clusters around 0.510 indicate energy build-up.

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5. Multi-Timeframe Confluence

• Daily trend: Uptrend but consolidating.

• Weekly trend: Strong bullish structure, last major BOS above 0.370.

• Confluence zone: 0.510–0.525 = key daily + weekly support.

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6. Psychological Level Integration

• Round numbers: 0.50 and 0.60 acting as key psychological barriers.

• ATR check: Recent bars suggest volatility expansion after months of compression.

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7. Risk-Adjusted Setup Identification

• Entry zone: 0.510–0.525 support cluster.

• Stop loss: Below 0.445 structural low.

• Targets:

  • First target: Retest 0.600 high

  • Secondary target: 0.650 (measured move projection from July rally).

• Risk-Reward: ~1:2.5 if buying near 0.520 with stop at 0.445.

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8. Market Regime Classification

• Current regime: Transitioning from strong uptrend → consolidation (re-accumulation phase).

• Price still respecting bullish structure, no breakdown signs yet.

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9. Institutional Supply/Demand Analysis

• Demand: Strong absorption at 0.510–0.525.

• Supply: Present near 0.600 (short-term profit-taking).

• Effort vs. Result: High effort (volume spikes in August/September) but sideways result = institutions loading positions.

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Forward-Looking Bias & Trade Plan

• Bias: Bullish, provided 0.510–0.525 holds.

• Key Levels:

  • Support: 0.510 / 0.445

  • Resistance: 0.600 / 0.650

• Setup:

  • Buying 5VS because of institutional absorption near 0.510 support inside an ongoing uptrend, with stops at 0.445 targeting 0.600 (T1) and 0.650 (T2) for ~1:2.5 risk-reward.

• Confidence rating: 7.5/10

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✅ Pre-Execution Checklist

• Check earnings/news schedule

• Confirm volume trend on intraday timeframes

• Align with SGX market sentiment

• Adjust position sizing to risk tolerance

Disclaimer:Please note that this analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice. Trading involves significant risk, and you should consult with a financial advisor before making any decisions.

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