Geo Energy - 25 Sep 2025

• Stock: Geo Energy Resources Ltd. (RE4.SI, SGX)

• Timeframe: Daily (Jan 2025 – Sep 2025)

• Number of bars: ~190 (approx. 9 months)

• Last traded price: 0.450 SGD

• Range covered: Low 0.255 → High 0.460

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1. Market Structure & Order Flow

• Swing Highs (SH): 0.335 (Apr), 0.395 (Jun), 0.460 (Sep)

• Swing Lows (SL): 0.255 (Mar), 0.265 (Apr), 0.320 (Jul), 0.330 (Aug)

• Break of Structure (BOS):

  • Apr: Breakout > 0.335 confirming uptrend resumption.

  • Sep: Strong BOS above 0.395, clearing prior supply zone.

• Trend Classification: Transition → Uptrend.

  • Long consolidation Q2 (Apr–Aug) between 0.320–0.395.

  • Momentum accelerated late Aug–Sep with expansion bars + volume surge.

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2. Volume–Price Relationship (VPR)

• Accumulation Zone: Feb–Apr (0.255–0.295), persistent low-range + elevated volume (institutional absorption).

• Breakout Confirmation: Sep rally saw volume expansion aligning with price breakout, validating demand > supply.

• Current Observation: Last bars show tight spread + high volume → absorption of profit-taking at highs (institutions building).

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3. Institutional Footprint Recognition

• Liquidity Grab: Jul low (0.320) flushed stops before rally → classic Wyckoff spring action.

• Order Block: Aug bullish impulse started from 0.350 zone (key demand).

• Displacement Move: Sep breakout above 0.395 with large green bodies & minimal retracement → strong institutional control.

• Fair Value Gap (FVG): Gap between 0.395–0.415 → likely retested if pullback occurs.

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4. Bar Pattern Recognition

• Aug–Sep: Consecutive wide-body bullish candles = continuation bars.

• Recent (Sep 22–25): Narrow-bodied bars near 0.450–0.460 with rising volume → absorption, not exhaustion yet.

• No clear reversal pin bar/shooting star yet → trend intact.

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5. Multi-Timeframe Confluence

• Daily Bias: Strong bullish breakout.

• Weekly Structure: Higher high established above 0.395; clear shift from multi-month range → trend.

• Confluence: 0.395 now support across daily/weekly.

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6. Psychological & Key Levels

• Round numbers: 0.300 (prior base), 0.400 (recent breakout), 0.450/0.500 (current resistance/psychological magnet).

• ATR context: Daily swing ~0.01–0.015 → current volatility at upper range (sign of strong trend).

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7. Risk-Adjusted Setup Zones

• Entry zone (pullback): 0.415–0.395 demand retest (prior breakout zone).

• Stop zone: Below 0.380 (invalidates structure).

• Target zone: 0.500 round number (psychological + measured move from 0.330–0.395 leg).

• Risk-Reward: Approx. 1:2.5 if entered near 0.415 with stop 0.380 and target 0.500.

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8. Market Regime

• Current: Trending (bullish).

• Prior: Ranging (Apr–Aug).

• Transition: Breakout confirmed in Sep with strong follow-through.

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Key Conviction Observations

1. Institutional absorption Feb–Apr created long base (0.255–0.295).

2. Structural breakout >0.395 validated accumulation → uptrend.

3. Current 0.450 zone = absorption phase, not exhaustion.

4. Strong volume expansion confirms institutional sponsorship.

5. 0.395–0.415 = critical demand zone for pullback entries.

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Trade Summary

Buying RE4 because of institutional breakout above 0.395 with absorption near 0.450, stops at 0.380 targeting 0.500 for 1:2.5 RRR.
Confidence Rating: 8/10
Key Levels: Support 0.395–0.415, Resistance 0.460–0.500

📌 Execution Checklist:

• Confirm breakout holds above 0.415

• Watch volume on retests (low = healthy pullback, high red = distribution)

• Align with weekly bullish bias

Disclaimer:Please note that this analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice. Trading involves significant risk, and you should consult with a financial advisor before making any decisions.

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