Stock: UMS Holdings Limited (SGX: 558)
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Timeframe: Daily (1D)
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Date Range Shown: Sep 2023 – Sep 2025 (~2 years, ~500 bars)
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Last Traded Price: SGD 1.36
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Analysis Basis: Pure price action, volume, and institutional footprint recognition
1. Market Structure & Order Flow
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Swing Highs (SH):
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Dec ’23: 1.09
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Jul ’24: 1.15
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Aug ’25: 1.60 (major high)
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Swing Lows (SL):
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Apr ’24: 0.91 (structural low)
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Mar ’25: 1.01
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Jul ’25: 1.17
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Break of Structure (BOS) & CHoCH:
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Apr ’24 BOS upwards from 0.91 → start of accumulation breakout.
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Aug ’25 CHoCH: rejection at 1.60 with sharp reversal → likely distribution.
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Trend Context:
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Long accumulation (Oct ’23 – Apr ’24), breakout (Apr–Aug ’25), now corrective distribution phase (Aug–Sep ’25).
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Momentum decay: Smaller candles, overlapping bars since peak 1.60 → loss of institutional conviction.
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2. Volume-Price Relationship (VPR)
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Climactic Volume: May–Jul ’25 rallies showed sharp volume surges with strong candles → institutional breakout confirmation.
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Exhaustion Signs: Aug ’25 top at 1.60 coincided with high volume + topping reversal.
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Current Volume Signature: Declining volume on pullback (Aug–Sep ’25) → corrective, not panic selling. Suggests profit-taking rather than trend collapse.
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Absorption Zones: Around 1.30–1.35, several high-volume small-body candles → likely institutional defense.
3. Institutional Footprints
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Liquidity Grab: Apr ’24 sharp dip to 0.91 before instant reversal → classic spring/shakeout.
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Displacement Move: May–Jul ’25 rally (1.04 → 1.60) was clean, strong, with little retracement → institutional buy program.
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Order Blocks:
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Bullish order block: 1.15–1.20 (Jul ’25 breakout base).
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Bearish order block: 1.50–1.55 (Aug ’25 rejection zone).
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Fair Value Gap (FVG): 1.20–1.27 untested gap from May ’25 → potential revisit.
4. Bar Pattern Recognition
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Reversals: Aug ’25 showed a shooting star + engulfing combo near 1.60 → high-probability distribution.
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Continuation: Prior to Aug ’25, tight flag structures confirmed strong demand.
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Current State: Last 10–15 bars = mixed spinning tops + small-bodied candles → indecision at mid-range (1.35).
5. Multi-Timeframe Confluence
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Weekly Chart (higher TF bias): Strong uptrend since Apr ’24, now in first major correction.
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Daily Chart: Consolidating between 1.30 (support) and 1.45 (resistance).
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Confluence Zone: 1.15–1.20 = critical structural support across both TFs.
6. Psychological Levels
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Round Numbers: 1.00 (structural floor), 1.50 (distribution top), 1.20 (major demand zone).
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ATR Context: ATR expanding in May–Aug rally, now contracting → regime shift to range/consolidation.
7. Risk-Adjusted Setup
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High-Probability Zone: Long-term accumulation demand sits 1.15–1.20.
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Stop Placement: Below 1.15 (structural invalidation).
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Targets:
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First resistance: 1.45
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Extended: 1.55–1.60 retest
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R:R Potential: ~1:3 if entered at 1.20 with stop 1.12 and target 1.45.
8. Market Regime
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Transition Regime: From trending (Apr–Aug ’25) to corrective range (Aug–Sep ’25).
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High volatility at highs, now compression at mid-levels. Market waiting for next directional cue.
9. Institutional Supply/Demand
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Supply Zone: 1.50–1.60 (distribution).
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Demand Zone: 1.15–1.20 (accumulation).
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Current balance of power → neutral with bias towards testing lower demand before resuming trend.
10. Catalyst Context (last 90 days)
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Earnings Release (Jul ’25): Large breakout and volume surge suggest strong results or forward guidance.
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No major news-driven collapses → correction looks technical, not fundamental-driven.
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Forward Risk: Next earnings event could determine breakout from consolidation.
Forward-Looking Bias
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Likely consolidation between 1.20–1.45 until either:
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Break above 1.45 → retest of 1.55–1.60,
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Break below 1.20 → deeper retrace to 1.00.
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✅ Trade Summary
Buying UMS (SGX: 558) if price retests 1.20 demand zone because institutional absorption + structural support align, with stops at 1.12 targeting 1.45 for ~1:3 R:R.
Confidence Rating: 7/10
Key Levels to Watch: 1.20 (support), 1.45 (resistance), 1.60 (major top).
📌 Reminder Checklist Before Execution
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Confirm volume behavior on retest of 1.20 (look for absorption, not panic).
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Check broader sector/market conditions (tech/manufacturing cycle).
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Validate with weekly chart structure.
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Define position size strictly to risk 1–2% of equity.
Disclaimer:Please note that this analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice. Trading involves significant risk, and you should consult with a financial advisor before making any decisions.
Dividend: 3.82%
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