Stock: Haw Par Corporation Limited (SGX: H02)
Chart Timeframe: Daily (Jan – Sep 2025)
Bars in Period: ~180
Last Traded Price: SGD 14.68 (19 Sep 2025)
1. Market Structure & Order Flow
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Trend Structure:
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Early 2025: Strong impulsive uptrend from ~SGD 11.00 → 13.33 (clear break of structure).
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Apr–Jun: Correction with lower swing lows (11.74 → 11.30) forming a short-term downtrend.
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Jul–Sep: Sharp reversal with higher highs/lows (12.92 → 14.59 → current 14.68). Structure is bullish.
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Key Swing Highs (SH): 13.05, 13.33, 13.09, 12.92, 14.59.
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Key Swing Lows (SL): 11.74, 11.30, 11.56, 13.80.
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Momentum: Current push to 14.68 shows decreasing retracement depth → institutional strength.
2. Volume-Price Relationship (VPR)
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Volume Surges:
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July breakout above 12.00 accompanied by volume expansion = institutional initiation.
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August spike near 14.59 had climactic volume, followed by pullback → suggests profit-taking.
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Volume Dry-Up: Sep consolidation near 14.00 showed reduced volume, classic breakout preparation zone.
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Current: Latest breakout (14.68) has moderate volume → healthy, not exhausted.
3. Institutional Footprints
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Liquidity Grab: The July sweep to 11.56 before sharp reversal is a classic spring/shakeout.
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Order Blocks: Demand zone at 12.00 (Jul breakout) confirmed with retest.
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Displacement Move: July–Aug rally 11.56 → 14.59 was an institutional leg with minimal retracements.
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Fair Value Gap: Between 13.00–13.50 now fully filled and respected as support.
4. Bar Patterns
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Continuation Bars: Series of small-bodied candles in Sep above 14.00 = absorption of supply.
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Breakout Bar: Current candle at 14.68 closed strong near highs → continuation signal.
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Climactic Bars: Aug peak at 14.59 saw wide-range + volume → minor exhaustion but quickly absorbed.
5. Multi-Timeframe Confluence
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Daily: Bullish breakout in progress.
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Weekly: Structure shifting from sideways (11–13) to bullish expansion (>14.50).
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Monthly: Compression breakout; first close above 14.50 in multiple months.
6. Psychological & Structural Levels
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Support: 13.80 (recent higher low), 12.90, 12.00 (order block).
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Resistance: 15.00 (psychological round number), 15.50 (measured move target).
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ATR: ~0.40–0.45 → Current breakout of +0.22 is within normal volatility band.
7. Market Regime Classification
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Current Regime: Trending Bullish (higher highs, higher lows, controlled volume expansion).
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Key Sign: Institutional absorption + breakout continuation.
8. Risk-Adjusted Setup
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Entry Zone: Above 14.50 breakout retest.
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Stop Placement: Below 13.80 structural higher low.
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Target 1: 15.00 (psychological level).
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Target 2: 15.50 (measured move).
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Risk-Reward: ~1:2.5 (buy 14.60 → stop 13.80 → target 15.50).
🔑 Highest Conviction Observations
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Institutional spring at 11.56 created a major demand pivot.
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Absorption phase at 14.00 shows smart money re-accumulation.
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Breakout above 14.59 signals continuation towards 15.00–15.50.
📊 Trade Summary
Buying H02 because institutional absorption breakout above 14.59 signals continuation, with stops at 13.80 targeting 15.50 for ~1:2.5 R:R.
Confidence Rating: 8.5/10
Key Levels: Support 13.80 / Resistance 15.00–15.50
✅ Pre-Execution Checklist:
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Confirm volume on breakout retest
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Align with weekly trend bias
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Adjust position size to ATR volatility
Disclaimer:Please note that this analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice. Trading involves significant risk, and you should consult with a financial advisor before making any decisions.
Dividend: 2.72%
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