Mapletree Ind - 15 May 25

MAPLETREE INDUSTRIAL TRUST (SGX: ME8U) | Daily Timeframe | Data up to 15 May 2025

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1. Trend Analysis

Trend Direction:

• Primary Trend: Downtrend (since Sept 2023)

• Most Recent Structure:

  • Lower Highs: 2.59 → 2.55 → 2.43 → 2.35 → 2.30 → 2.13 → 2.07

  • Lower Lows: 2.20 → 2.17 → 1.96 → 1.83 (April low)

• Trend Weakening Signs:

  • Smaller-bodied bars and overlapping candles in April/May.

  • Failed to break above 2.13 and 2.07 decisively; price now testing recent support near 1.94.

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2. Key Price Action Signals

Significant Candlesticks and Volume Spikes:

• Nov 2023 (~2.24 drop): Large red trend bar, closes near low on high volume → bearish breakdown confirmation.

• Late Jan–Early Feb 2025: Consecutive red bars with strong volume, closes near lows → panic selling, climax volume region.

• 19 Mar 2025: Strong reversal bar after hitting 1.83 low, heavy volume, long wick → bullish pin bar → marks local bottom.

• Early April 2025: Bullish bars with increasing volume, closes near highs → bullish follow-through until rejection at 2.13.

• 9 May 2025: Gap down + strong volume → failed support at 2.00 → bearish rejection of prior support.

Consolidation Patterns:

• Late Feb – Mid Mar 2025: Inside bar clusters and dojis → indecision phase around 1.90–1.96.

• Early April: Breakout from this range on strong bull bar → bullish breakout attempt.

Recent Candles:

• 13–15 May: Bearish activity resurfaces with increased volume and failed bounce → potential lower high forming under 2.00.

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3. Support & Resistance Levels

Level	Type	Relevance
2.59–2.55	Resistance	Key peak, Sept/Oct 2023
2.35–2.30	Resistance	Lower high zone, Dec 2023
2.13–2.07	Resistance	Failed bounce zone, April 2025
1.96–1.94	Current Support Zone	Last defended level
1.83	Major Support	YTD low (Mar 2025), strong reversal
2.20, 2.17	Past Support	Broken levels, now resistance

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4. Breakout & Pullback Analysis

• Feb 2025: Breakdown from 2.17 with strong trend bars and volume → confirmed bear breakout.

• Mar 2025 Pullback to 1.83: Created bullish pin bar + volume climax → textbook reversal setup.

• April 2025: Strong bullish pullback (1.83 → 2.13) → rejected.

• Now: Pullback from 2.07 fails at 2.00 level, market resumes downward pressure → weak bull attempt.

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5. Market Context & Trading Bias

• Current Market Condition: Bearish bias within a broader downtrend. Failed bullish breakout in April signals continued weakness.

• Trader Sentiment:

  • Recent failed breakout = bull trap.

  • Current lower high forming → bears likely to defend 2.00 area heavily.

Bias: Bearish short-term; neutral-to-bearish mid-term unless 2.13 is breached.

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6. Supply, Demand & Liquidity Zones

• Demand Zone: 1.83–1.94 → tested in Mar, holding for now.

• Supply Zone: 2.07–2.13 → recent selling emerged here on volume.

• Volume Spike Analysis:

  • High volume bars near 1.83 → demand absorption + institutional entry likely.

  • Recent spike on 15 May near 1.94 on red bar = bearish volume resurgence.

Potential Trade Setups:

• Pullback Short: Sell rejection near 2.00 with SL above 2.07, TP at 1.83.

• Reversal Buy: Only valid if price re-tests 1.83 with bullish confirmation (e.g., hammer with volume).

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7. Risk Management Strategy

Setup 1 – Short Entry:

• Entry: ~1.98–2.00 (on bounce)

• Stop Loss: 2.08 (above last LH)

• Take Profit 1: 1.83

• Take Profit 2: 1.75 (if 1.83 breaks)

• R:R Ratio: Approx. 1:2+

Setup 2 – Reversal Buy (If 1.83 Re-tested):

• Entry: 1.85 (with confirmation candle)

• Stop Loss: 1.78

• Take Profit: 2.00

• R:R Ratio: 1:2

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8. Company News Summary (Last 3 Months)

📰 Key Developments:

1. May 2, 2025 – FY2025 Earnings Report

   • Summary: DPU declined 3.2% YoY, citing increased financing costs and softness in US data center portfolio.

   • Impact: Sentiment turned negative, price dropped sharply around May 3–6.

   • Source: SGX Newsroom

2. Apr 18, 2025 – Portfolio Restructuring Announcement

   • Summary: Mapletree Industrial to divest one Singapore asset and recycle capital into a US Tier-1 data center.

   • Impact: Short-term boost to price, but quickly sold off → market remains skeptical.

   • Source: Business Times SG

3. Mar 15, 2025 – Data Center Power Issue Resolved

   • Summary: One major US facility faced partial downtime, resolved mid-March.

   • Impact: Helped support reversal at 1.83, aiding recovery.

   • Source: Straits Times

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Conclusion & Timeframe Calls

Timeframe	Bias	Commentary
Short-Term (1–2 weeks)	Bearish	Price struggling at resistance, volume spikes suggest selling resumption.
Medium-Term (1–2 months)	Neutral-to-Bearish	Unless 2.13 is broken with conviction, trend remains down.
Long-Term (6+ months)	Cautiously Bullish if 1.83 holds	Strong demand base near 1.83; dividend yield may attract long-term holders, but macro + rising rates are headwinds.

Disclaimer:Please note that this analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice. Trading involves significant risk, and you should consult with a financial advisor before making any decisions.

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