CapLand India - 23 May 25

• Stock: CapitaLand India Trust

• Exchange: SGX

• Ticker: CY6U

• Timeframe: Daily (1D)

• Last Price: SGD 0.970

• Date of last candle: 23 May 2025

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1. TREND ANALYSIS

📉 Macro Trend (July 2024 – May 2025):

• Long-Term: Downtrend, marked by sequential lower highs (1.180 → 1.150 → 1.140 → 1.100 → 1.080 → 0.980) and lower lows (1.020 → 1.000 → 0.935 → 0.820).

• Medium-Term: Transitioning to range-bound behavior since the 0.820 bottom in April 2025. Price rallied and is now stabilizing between 0.935 and 0.980.

• Short-Term: Mild recovery trend from April low (0.820) to current level. Attempting to break into a higher range but facing resistance at 0.980.

🔄 Trend Weakening Signs:

• Downtrend momentum has slowed since the March-April bottom.

• Volume is decreasing post-rebound—typical of a consolidation phase or a weakening bullish move.

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2. KEY PRICE ACTION SIGNALS (Bar-by-Bar & Volume Focus)

🔍 Notable Price Bars:

📌 Mid-March to Early April 2025 (0.820 low)

• Volume Spike: Strong green bars with significant bullish volume as price rebounds from 0.820 to 0.935.

• Key Signal: Bullish engulfing pattern around 0.820 low — key reversal bar.

• Psychology: Capitulation followed by aggressive dip-buying. Likely institutional demand.

📌 Gap Down (Late March)

• Large red bar gapping below 0.880, then rapidly bought back next day.

• Interpretation: Exhaustion gap. Bearish sentiment overwhelmed by strong demand.

📌 High Volume Bar – 0.980 (Late April)

• Strong bar but closed off highs—a sign of supply absorption or profit-taking at resistance.

• Marked reversal next day — rejection bar at the top of the recovery channel.

📌 Recent Bars (May 2025)

• Several small-bodied candles near 0.970 with low volume — indicates indecision.

• Doji-like structures forming a tight range under 0.980.

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3. SUPPORT & RESISTANCE LEVELS

🔻 Support Zones:

• 0.820: Multi-month low and current major demand zone.

• 0.935: Minor support — previously acted as a pivot before the April-May rally.

• 0.880: Psychological and technical pivot.

🔺 Resistance Zones:

• 0.980: Key swing high. Heavy selling seen. Watch for breakout.

• 1.000: Round number resistance.

• 1.080 – 1.100: Historical congestion zone.

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4. BREAKOUT & PULLBACK ANALYSIS

• Breakout Attempts:

  • 0.935 breakout (early May) was clean with decent volume and follow-through.

  • 0.980 not broken convincingly yet—price consolidating just under it.

• Pullbacks:

  • Pullback to 0.935 in mid-May held firmly—bullish retest.

  • No significant trend bar breakdowns during this phase, showing controlled selling.

• Flag Structure: Possible bull flag formation from early May to present.

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5. MARKET CONTEXT & TRADING BIAS

• Current Context: Ranging with bullish bias, post strong rebound.

• Accumulation signs: After a sharp downtrend, price has flattened and volume is drying up, typical of accumulation base behavior.

• Trader Psychology: Fear subsided post-0.820. Now market is in wait-and-see mode. Cautious optimism.

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6. SUPPLY, DEMAND & LIQUIDITY ANALYSIS

• Demand Zone: Clear demand seen at 0.820 and again at 0.935 (retest).

• Supply Zone: Intense supply near 0.980—repeated failed attempts to clear it with follow-through.

• Liquidity Trap: Watch out if price pops above 0.980 and closes below it—bull trap potential.

🔑 Potential Trade Setups:

1. Breakout Play (Long):

   • Entry: Above 0.980 (confirmed close)

   • Stop-loss: Below 0.960

   • Target 1: 1.000, Target 2: 1.050+

2. Pullback Buy:

   • Entry: 0.935–0.940 zone

   • Stop-loss: Below 0.920

   • Target: Return to 0.980

3. Reversal Short (if fakeout at 0.980):

   • Entry: Break above 0.980 that closes back below

   • Stop-loss: Above high of fakeout

   • Target: 0.935–0.920

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7. RISK MANAGEMENT STRATEGY

• For Bullish Breakout:

  • Position Size: Risk 1–2% per trade.

  • SL: Tight below 0.960

  • R/R Ratio: Minimum 2:1 for targets at 1.00–1.05

• For Pullback Entry:

  • SL below key support at 0.920

  • Use trailing stop once 0.980 is broken.

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8. COMPANY NEWS (Past 3 Months)

📅 March 12, 2025 – CapitaLand India Trust FY2024 Results

• Source: Business Times SG

• Summary: Full-year distributable income rose 9%, driven by new data center developments. Stable operational metrics.

• Sentiment: Positive — supports medium-term fundamental value.

📅 April 17, 2025 – India Data Center Expansion

• Source: Straits Times

• Summary: CLINT announced new build-to-suit lease for 30 MW data center in Navi Mumbai.

• Sentiment: Very Positive, long-term bullish impact.

📅 May 7, 2025 – Q1 2025 Business Update

• Source: SGX Company Announcement

• Summary: 98% occupancy maintained, 10% YoY DPU growth.

• Sentiment: Strong operations; supports recent bounce from 0.820.

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🔚 SUMMARY & FINAL CALLS

✅ Bull Case:

• Strong demand base at 0.820

• Retest of 0.935 held.

• Bull flag potential under 0.980

• Positive fundamentals and news support uptrend

❌ Bear Case:

• Resistance at 0.980 is formidable.

• Low volume during current consolidation could indicate weak buyer interest.

• Failed breakout above 0.980 may trap late bulls.

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📈 Outlook

• Short-Term (1–2 weeks): Bullish bias, if 0.980 is cleared with volume.

• Medium-Term (1–3 months): Cautious Bullish, unless 0.935 fails.

• Long-Term (>3 months): Bullish, given data center expansion and improving fundamentals.

📌 Final Note: Wait for breakout confirmation at 0.980. Volume spike + strong trend bar = buy signal. Otherwise, buy near 0.935 support with defined stop.

Disclaimer:Please note that this analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice. Trading involves significant risk, and you should consult with a financial advisor before making any decisions.

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