CapLand IntCom Trust - 23 May 25

📌 Stock Overview

• Stock Name: CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust

• Code: C38U

• Exchange: SGX

• Timeframe: Daily (1D)

• Currency: SGD

---

🔍 1. Trend Analysis

Long-Term Trend (July 2024–May 2025)

• Primary Trend: Sideways to weak uptrend.

• Phase 1 (July to mid-Oct 2024): Mild uptrend with higher highs (2.12 → 2.15 → 2.16) and higher lows (2.02 → 2.03).

• Phase 2 (mid-Oct to Dec 2024): Transition to a downtrend, breaking below support at 2.08, forming lower highs and lower lows (2.16 → 2.08 → 1.91).

• Phase 3 (Dec to Apr 2025): Reversal and recovery with higher lows (1.90 → 1.92 → 1.96) and strong rally back to 2.20.

• Current Phase (May 2025): Weak pullback from recent highs at 2.20. Still above key support at 2.00, suggesting bullish consolidation.

Trend Weakening Signs

• Current bars in May show overlapping bodies and lower volume, with lack of strong follow-through. Bullish momentum has slowed.

---

🔔 2. Key Price Action Signals

Notable Bars & Volume Spikes

• Mid-Mar 2025: Large bullish trend bars with strong volume breakout from 2.00 to 2.20 — strong demand zone confirmed.

• Late Apr 2025: Rejection wick near 2.20 followed by strong bearish engulfing bar → signs of buyer exhaustion.

• May 2025: Consolidation with multiple small-bodied bars, indecision around 2.05–2.08.

Pin Bars / Reversals

• Early Dec 2024: Long-tailed pin bar around 1.90 signals a false breakdown and reversal.

• Early Apr 2025: Bullish engulfing bar off 1.96 leads to vertical rally → momentum ignition.

Inside Bars & Dojis

• Several doji candles during May 2025 indicating consolidation and potential volatility buildup.

• Inside bars seen post 2.20 highs — market waiting for new directional catalyst.

Gap Up/Down Observations

• No clear gap-ups/downs in the visible range, suggesting a liquid, slow-moving REIT, typical of SGX blue-chip counters.

---

📉 3. Support & Resistance Levels

Resistance Levels

• 2.20 – Triple top zone. Strong resistance; tested 3 times and rejected.

• 2.16 / 2.15 – Minor resistance cluster.

Support Levels

• 2.00 – Psychological and horizontal support.

• 1.92 / 1.90 – Double bottom base; prior demand spike.

• 1.96 – Support confirmed via bullish reversal in Apr 2025.

---

🔄 4. Breakout & Pullback Analysis

• Mar 2025 Breakout: Strong bullish breakout above 2.00 supported by rising volume. Classic breakout play.

• Current Pullback: Minor pullback from 2.20 to 2.05–2.07. Lacks strong bearish conviction.

  • Could form a bull flag or continuation pattern.

  • Volume declining — suggests temporary profit-taking, not new selling.

---

🧭 5. Market Context & Trading Bias

• Market State: Currently in pullback/consolidation after a short-term uptrend.

• Price Action Psychology:

  • Buyers booked profits at 2.20 (resistance).

  • Current indecision implies waiting for a new catalyst.

• Bias: Bullish short- to medium-term if price holds above 2.00.

  • Break above 2.10 with volume would confirm new leg up.

---

📊 6. Supply, Demand & Liquidity Analysis

Demand Zones

• 1.90–1.92: Major demand zone, evidenced by large reversal bars and volume surge.

• 2.00: Institutional interest likely present. Volume supported the breakout.

Supply Zones

• 2.15–2.20: Active supply evident from long upper wicks and failed breakout attempts.

Potential Trade Setups

• Pullback Buy near 2.04–2.06, stop below 2.00, target retest of 2.20.

• Breakout Play above 2.20 with close and volume confirmation → target 2.30.

---

💼 7. Risk Management Strategy

Scenario 1: Pullback Buy

• Entry: 2.05

• Stop-Loss: 1.99 (below structure)

• Target 1: 2.20

• Target 2: 2.30 (extension)

• Risk-Reward: ~1:2.5 minimum

Scenario 2: Breakout Entry

• Entry: 2.22 (above prior highs)

• Stop-Loss: 2.10

• Target: 2.35

• Risk-Reward: ~1:2

---

📰 8. Recent News & Sentiment Summary

🔍 News Search (Last 3 Months)

1. CapitaLand Integrated Trust Q1 Results

• Date: April 24, 2025

• Summary: Q1 2025 DPU (distribution per unit) remained stable. Portfolio occupancy at ~98%. Slight rental reversion growth. Optimistic guidance for retail segment recovery.

• Sentiment: Neutral to positive – supports the uptrend seen post-April.

2. Macroeconomic Context - Singapore Property

• Date: March–May 2025

• Summary: MAS holds interest rates steady; commercial property sector stable. Institutional flows into REITs due to yield safety.

• Sentiment: Supportive for REITs, favoring CICT's risk-off profile.

---

📌 Final Summary & Outlook

✅ Bull Case

• Strong support at 2.00 and 1.90.

• Reversal confirmed in March with healthy volume breakout.

• Potential bull flag forming — could target 2.30 on break above 2.20.

• Favorable macro (stable interest rates) and fundamental backdrop.

❌ Bear Case

• Triple rejection at 2.20.

• Weak May candles → buying fatigue.

• Break below 2.00 could lead to test of 1.92/1.90 zone.

---

📈 Time Frame Outlook

Time Frame	Outlook	Justification
Short-Term (1–2 weeks)	Neutral to Bullish	Watch for breakout above 2.10–2.12; otherwise, consolidation.
Medium-Term (1–3 months)	Bullish	Recovery trend from 1.90 intact; demand zones respected.
Long-Term (6+ months)	Cautiously Bullish	As long as price holds above 1.90–2.00 and macro conditions remain favorable.

Disclaimer:Please note that this analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice. Trading involves significant risk, and you should consult with a financial advisor before making any decisions.

Dividend:  6.28%