Arthur Wang Technical Analysis: Ascendas Reit

Friday, May 16, 2025

Ascendas Reit - 16 May 25

Technical Analysis of CapitaLand Ascendas REIT (SGX: A17U)
Timeframe: Daily (1D) chart
Date of last bar: Friday, 16 May 2025
Current Price: SGD 2.63
Previous Close: SGD 2.59
Change: +1.54%

🔍 1. Trend Analysis

🔹 Market Phase: Range-Bound with Slight Bullish Bias

The chart shows a multi-month downtrend from a peak at SGD 2.99 (Sep 2024) to a low of SGD 2.40 (Mar 2025).
From March 2025, the price has rebounded forming higher lows (2.40 → 2.49 → 2.49 again) and higher highs (2.66 → 2.75)—indicative of a developing bullish structure, albeit still within a broad consolidation zone.
Trend Weakness Indicators:
- Price is stalling around SGD 2.63–2.66, a prior resistance zone.
- Mixed bar sizes and overlapping candles hint at low conviction from bulls.

📌 2. Key Price Action Signals (Bar-by-Bar Highlights)

🔸 Volume Spikes & Corresponding Candles:

16 Apr 2025: Strong green bar with massive volume spike and long lower wick. Open: 2.45 → Close: 2.63. This indicates demand absorption and likely institutional buying.
22 Apr 2025: Continuation green bar, high volume, closes near the top. Bullish confirmation and follow-through.
9 May 2025: Tall bearish bar after a short-term high at 2.71. This bar reversed the bullish momentum and started the most recent pullback.

🔸 Gap Downs:

28 Mar 2025: Small gap down from 2.49 to 2.40, forming a bullish exhaustion wick. The large lower shadow and immediate reversal suggest false breakdown, further confirmed by strong bounce.

🔸 Pin Bars & Reversals:

15 Apr 2025: Pin bar with long lower tail at 2.45, directly off the recent support (2.49). Strong reversal signal, later confirmed by bullish engulfing and volume spike.
14 Feb 2025: Pin bar rejecting 2.66. Sign of selling pressure and false breakout above resistance.

🔸 Inside Bars/Doji:

Multiple dojis and small inside bars around early February to March 2025 suggest indecision before the sharp bounce in April.
Recent 4-day cluster (13–16 May) is forming a mini consolidation at the resistance zone. Watch for breakout.

🧱 3. Support & Resistance Levels

🔹 Support Zones:

2.40: Key swing low and demand zone (March 2025).
2.49: Minor support tested twice (Feb & Mar 2025).
2.55–2.58: Mid-range support from Dec–Feb congestion.

🔹 Resistance Zones:

2.66–2.75: Strong historical supply zone. Triple-tested (Dec, Feb, Apr).
2.80: Minor resistance from Aug 2024.
2.99–3.00: Major top and long-term resistance from Sept 2024.

🔄 4. Breakout & Pullback Analysis

April Breakout: Strong breakout from 2.49 on 15–16 April. Volume-confirmed, sharp move to 2.75.
Pullback: Ongoing pullback from 2.75 looks orderly, with decreasing volume and smaller bars—a healthy retracement within a new up leg.
Current price hovering above rising support and nearing 2.66 breakout threshold.

🧠 5. Market Context & Trading Bias

Bias: Cautiously Bullish
Price structure is transitioning from range to uptrend, with increasing bullish follow-through.
Recent pullbacks are shallow and finding support, suggesting buyers are stepping in early.
However, hesitation at 2.66 hints at possible liquidity trap—a breakout needs strong volume.

⚖️ 6. Supply, Demand & Liquidity Analysis

Demand Zone: 2.40–2.49: Buyers clearly defended this zone.
Supply Zone: 2.66–2.75: Historical selling pressure; requires strong volume to break through.
Liquidity Trap Possibility: If price breaks above 2.66 without follow-through, it may trigger stop hunts and reverse quickly.

📈 7. Risk Management Strategy

🟢 Potential Setup: Pullback Buy

Entry: Around 2.60–2.62, near short-term pullback low.
Stop-Loss: Below 2.55 (recent consolidation low).
Target 1: 2.75 (recent high)
Target 2: 2.80–2.99 (major resistance)
Reward/Risk Ratio: ~2.5:1 (favorable)

🟠 Alternate Setup: Breakout Play

Entry: On clean break above 2.66 with volume
Stop-Loss: 2.58 (last swing low)
Target: 2.80, then 2.99
Volume confirmation required

📰 8. Recent Company News (Last 3 Months)

1. [29 April 2025 - The Business Times]

Headline: Ascendas REIT Reports Q1 FY25 Results; Portfolio Occupancy at 94.5%
Summary: Revenue rose by 3.4% YoY, with DPU (distribution per unit) stable. Focus remains on asset enhancements in Singapore and Australia.

2. [25 March 2025 - Reuters]

Headline: Ascendas REIT Completes Acquisition of Data Centre in Sydney
Summary: REIT acquired a AUD 150 million data center asset, enhancing recurring income. This supports long-term earnings stability.

3. [15 April 2025 - SGX News]

Headline: CapitaLand Ascendas Declares Distribution of SGD 0.038 Per Unit
Summary: Positive sentiment as the yield remains attractive. Ex-dividend date was 17 April, which coincides with post-dividend buying pressure on chart.

✅ Final Summary & Forecast

🔎 Key Findings:

Structural shift from range to uptrend, confirmed by higher lows and higher highs.
Strong buyer interest near 2.49–2.55.
Major resistance near 2.66–2.75 still needs to be decisively breached.
Volume spikes and bullish reversal signals in mid-April indicate institutional accumulation.

📊 Bull & Bear Cases

🐂 Bull Case:

Break above 2.66 with volume targets 2.80–2.99.
Sustained higher lows and earnings stability support long-term upside.
Yield attractiveness may attract inflows from conservative investors.

🐻 Bear Case:

Failure to hold 2.60 may invite retest of 2.55 or 2.49.
Weak breakout with low volume may trap late buyers and reverse.
Macro REIT sector headwinds (interest rate hikes or economic weakness) could pressure valuation.

🧭 Final Call

Timeframe	Bias	Outlook
Short Term	Neutral-Bullish	Await breakout above 2.66
Medium Term	Bullish	Higher lows and post-dividend strength
Long Term	Cautiously Bullish	Fundamentals stable; key resistance above

Disclaimer:Please note that this analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice. Trading involves significant risk, and you should consult with a financial advisor before making any decisions.

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Arthur Wang Technical Analysis