Mapletree Log - 14 May 25

Stock Name: Mapletree Logistics Trust
Stock Code: M44U (SGX)
Timeframe: 1-Day (Daily Chart)
Current Price (14 May 2025): SGD 1.11
Buy/Sell Spread: 1.10 / 1.11

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🔍 1. Trend Analysis

• Medium-Term Trend: Downtrend.
  The chart shows a well-established downtrend from the recent high of SGD 1.51 in early October 2024, with progressively lower highs (e.g., 1.38 → 1.34) and lower lows (e.g., 1.24 → 1.03).

• Short-Term Trend: Sideways to Bearish.
  Since the bounce from SGD 1.03 in late April 2025, the stock has been range-bound between 1.03 and 1.22, but sellers remain in control, evidenced by repeated rejections near 1.20–1.22 and failure to hold gains.

• Trend Weakness Signals:

  • The most recent rally to 1.22 was weak and rejected quickly.

  • Candles have long upper wicks and lack strong bullish follow-through.

  • Several overlapping candles and failed breakout attempts.

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📊 2. Key Price Action Signals (Bar-by-Bar Highlights)

🔸 Volume Spikes & Candlestick Behavior:

• April 26–30, 2025:

  • Large red bar with a gap down from ~1.34 to ~1.18.

  • Huge volume spike = capitulation or institutional selling.

  • Closed near the low: strong bearish conviction.

  • Follow-through: additional large red bar next day → confirmed bearish breakout.

• May 1–3, 2025:

  • Bullish reversal bar at 1.03, long lower wick, small real body.

  • Next day, a strong green bar follows → classic bullish engulfing.

  • Volume high, but follow-through fails after price hits 1.22.

• May 9–14, 2025:

  • Several inside and doji bars, indicating indecision and low momentum.

  • May 14: small red candle with narrow range and low volume → weak sellers or low liquidity.

🔸 Key Candlestick Signals Identified:

• Bearish Engulfing (April 29)

• Bullish Reversal Pin Bar (May 2)

• Doji Clusters (May 9–14): Signals market indecision or pause.

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📈 3. Key Support & Resistance Levels

Level (SGD)	Type	Observations
1.51	Major Resistance	High of Oct 2024
1.34	Resistance	April 2025 failed breakout
1.22–1.25	Resistance Zone	Previous support broken, now resistance
1.03	Support	Strong bounce area, likely demand zone
0.99–1.00	Psychological + Technical Support	If 1.03 fails

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📉 4. Breakout & Pullback Analysis

• Bearish Breakout (April 26):

  • Clean break of support at 1.22 with gap down and heavy selling.

  • No immediate support below = free fall to 1.03.

• Pullback Attempts:

  • Weak bullish rally to 1.22 faced instant rejection.

  • Lacked momentum, failed to close above prior resistance.

• Current Formation:

  • Potential bear flag forming between 1.03–1.14 range.

  • If price breaks below 1.10 with volume, expect a retest of 1.03 or lower.

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🧠 5. Market Context & Trading Bias

• Current Bias: Slightly Bearish to Neutral

  • Short-term traders are cautious post-collapse.

  • Institutional sentiment appears risk-off due to aggressive selloff.

  • No clear reversal pattern yet confirmed—only a temporary bounce.

• Psychology:

  • April selloff = panic and capitulation.

  • Rebound = bottom fishing, but fading quickly.

  • Current indecision = lack of confidence, waiting for catalysts.

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🏦 6. Supply, Demand & Liquidity Analysis

• Demand Zone: 1.03

  • Strong buyer response with volume support.

  • If broken, next demand likely around SGD 1.00.

• Supply Zones: 1.22, 1.34

  • Heavy seller reaction in these areas.

  • Failure to reclaim them indicates persistent overhead supply.

• Liquidity Trap:

  • The bounce to 1.22 may have trapped late bulls expecting continuation.

  • Resulted in sharp reversal → confirmation of short-term bearish control.

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📌 7. Risk Management Strategy

Trade Setup: Bearish Breakout Play (if 1.10 fails)

• Entry: Break below 1.10 with volume

• Stop Loss: Above recent high – 1.14

• Profit Target 1: 1.03

• Profit Target 2: 0.99

• R:R Ratio: 1:2.5 minimum

Alternate Setup: Pullback Buy (only if 1.03 holds again with confirmation)

• Entry: Bullish reversal bar with volume at 1.03

• Stop Loss: Below 1.00

• Target: 1.20, then 1.22

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📰 8. Company News Summary (Past 3 Months)

🗓️ 1. April 24, 2025 – Mapletree Logistics Trust Earnings Miss

• Source: The Business Times (SG)

• Summary:

  • Q1 2025 DPU (Distribution per Unit) down 5.2% YoY.

  • Weak rental reversion in China and South Korea.

  • Concerns over high debt cost and asset revaluation.

  • Resulted in a massive investor selloff, explaining the large red bar on April 26.

🗓️ 2. March 15, 2025 – Portfolio Acquisition Delay

• Source: Edge Singapore

• Summary:

  • Mapletree announced a delay in its proposed logistics facility acquisition in Vietnam.

  • Investors wary of regional exposure and capital expenditure.

🗓️ 3. February 10, 2025 – S&P Outlook Downgrade

• Source: Bloomberg

• Summary:

  • S&P revised outlook from "Stable" to "Negative".

  • Rising interest rates and weak Asian industrial property outlook cited.

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✅ Summary of Key Findings

• Trend: Bearish (lower highs/lows), though temporarily range-bound.

• Momentum: Weak; bullish bounces failing to sustain.

• Volume: Bearish breakout was supported by volume; recent action subdued.

• Support: 1.03 (major); 0.99 (psychological).

• Resistance: 1.22–1.25 zone; 1.34.

• News Sentiment: Negative—earnings miss, S&P downgrade, and acquisition delays.

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🔮 Final Technical Call:

Timeframe	Outlook	Reason
Short-Term	Bearish	Weak rebound, fading momentum, likely retest of 1.03
Medium-Term	Bearish-to-Neutral	Overhead resistance remains strong, unless 1.22 is reclaimed
Long-Term	Neutral	Structure needs rebuilding post-selloff; macro fundamentals a concern

Disclaimer:Please note that this analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice. Trading involves significant risk, and you should consult with a financial advisor before making any decisions.

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