🔎 Overview
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Stock: CapitaLand Ascendas REIT
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Exchange: SGX
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Ticker: A17U
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Timeframe: Daily
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Last Close: 2.59 SGD
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Volume: Slightly below average, with notable spikes at key turns
1. 📈 Trend Analysis
Primary Trend (Medium Term):
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Trend: Sideways to mild downtrend
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From the peak at 2.99 (late Sept 2024), the stock entered a clear downtrend into late December 2024.
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Recent structure: Lower highs and lower lows into April 2025, bottoming at 2.40 SGD before recovering.
Recent Price Structure:
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Lower high at 2.72 (May 2025) following 2.75 (April) – suggests weakening bullish momentum.
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Support zone retested twice at 2.49, forming a double bottom, but rally stalled at 2.72.
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Current price action suggests a bearish drift within a larger sideways consolidation.
2. 🔍 Key Price Action Signals (Bar-by-Bar Analysis)
Significant Bars & Volume Observations:
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Late September to October 2024: Heavy selloff from 2.99 to ~2.55, accompanied by multiple large red trend bars with expanding volume – clear distribution phase.
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November 2024: Pin bar at 2.51 with a tail rejection and higher volume indicates temporary demand.
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Late March 2025: Sharp reversal from 2.40 with a long wick (buying tail) – strong pin bar, demand confirmation.
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Early April 2025: 3 bullish wide-range bars on increasing volume, broke above short-term resistance at 2.54, then tested and rallied to 2.75.
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Late April - May 2025: Volume spikes during rejection at 2.72, followed by 5 consecutive red bars (many with small real bodies and long wicks) – showing distribution and hesitation.
Key Reversal Candles Identified:
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Pin bar at 2.40 (March 2025) – strong demand, bottom signal.
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Bearish engulfing at 2.75 (April 2025) – formed after recovery rally, leads to decline.
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Doji cluster (May 15-20, 2025) – indecision under 2.59, hinting at potential breakdown.
3. 🔄 Support & Resistance Levels
Key Resistance:
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2.99 – Major resistance (2024 high)
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2.80 / 2.75 / 2.72 – Intermediate resistance levels from recent swing highs
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2.66 – Important resistance capped multiple rallies (Feb, March 2025)
Key Support:
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2.40 – Strong recent support (double bottom)
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2.49 – Short-term support zone, bounce observed twice
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2.53-2.55 – Minor support level from Feb consolidation
4. 📊 Breakout & Pullback Analysis
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Breakouts:
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April rally (2.40 → 2.75) was a legitimate breakout from a base, backed by volume.
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However, breakout failed to establish new highs, and price reversed at 2.75/2.72, creating a bull trap.
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Pullbacks:
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Recent pullback from 2.72 → 2.59 shows orderly retracement but volume is not confirming aggressive buying yet.
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Currently: Sitting at a potential pivot – either forming a higher low (bullish continuation) or lower high breakdown (trend continuation).
5. 🧭 Market Context & Trading Bias
Market Type: Ranging with bearish undertone
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Price is stuck between 2.40 and 2.75, with recent weakness at the upper range.
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Trend bars are smaller, overlapping – indicating loss of conviction and rising indecision.
Trader Psychology:
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Bearish sentiment near highs (2.72–2.75) → profit-taking, supply pressure
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Cautious optimism near 2.40 → accumulation interest
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Current structure suggests short-term indecision; market awaits fresh catalysts.
6. 💼 Supply, Demand & Liquidity Analysis
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High volume selling spikes during Oct–Dec 2024 marked supply zones.
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April 2025 volume surge at 2.40 → marked demand inflow.
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Current volume on recent decline is not heavy, implying no panic selling – suggesting pullback, not breakdown (yet).
Trade Setups Identified:
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Pullback Buy Opportunity if price holds above 2.55–2.53 zone with bullish bar and volume confirmation.
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Breakdown Play if 2.49 fails with a strong red bar on volume – potential return to test 2.40.
7. 🛡️ Risk Management Strategy
✅ Bullish Scenario (Pullback Buy):
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Entry: 2.58–2.60 on bullish confirmation bar
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Stop Loss: Below 2.49
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Target 1: 2.72
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Target 2: 2.80
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Risk:Reward: ~1:2.5
❌ Bearish Scenario (Breakdown Play):
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Entry: Below 2.49 with strong bearish candle
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Stop Loss: Above 2.59
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Target: 2.40, then potentially 2.30
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Risk:Reward: ~1:2
8. 📰 Company News (Past 3 Months)
🗓️ 1. CapitaLand Ascendas REIT Q1 2025 Earnings Report – May 3, 2025
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Source: SGX
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Summary: Q1 DPU (Distribution per Unit) slightly declined YoY due to higher interest expenses and some lease expiries. However, portfolio occupancy remained strong at 94.5%.
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Sentiment: Neutral to Mildly Negative
🗓️ 2. Strategic Asset Divestment Announcement – April 17, 2025
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Source: Business Times
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Summary: The REIT announced the sale of two older industrial assets in Singapore, aligning with its capital recycling strategy.
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Sentiment: Neutral to Positive
🗓️ 3. Fitch Maintains 'A-' Credit Rating – March 28, 2025
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Summary: Credit outlook stable, citing prudent capital management and strong occupancy rates.
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Sentiment: Positive
✅ Summary & Final Technical Outlook
📌 Trend: Range-bound with mild bearish bias
📌 Support Zone: 2.49–2.53
📌 Resistance Zone: 2.72–2.75
📌 Volume: Quietly tapering, signaling indecision
📌 Bias: Neutral-short term, cautiously bullish medium-term if 2.49 holds
⏳ Final Call by Timeframe:
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Short-Term (1–2 weeks): Neutral to slightly bearish → likely retest of 2.49 unless strong bull bar appears
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Medium-Term (1–3 months): Cautiously bullish if 2.49 holds; possible breakout above 2.72
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Long-Term (3–12 months): Neutral to bullish, assuming macro environment and REIT fundamentals remain stable
Disclaimer:Please note that this analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice. Trading involves significant risk, and you should consult with a financial advisor before making any decisions.
Dividend: 5.78%
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