Stock: STI ETF (SPDR Straits Times Index ETF)
Ticker: ES3.SI
Exchange: SGX (Singapore Exchange)
Timeframe: Daily (1D)
Date of Last Candle: 19 May 2025
Current Price: 3.955 SGD
Change: -0.016 (-0.40%)
1. 📈 Trend Analysis
✅ Current Trend:
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Medium-Term: Uptrend with a recent sharp recovery.
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Short-Term: Bullish rally after a V-shaped bottom in early April (low: 3.393).
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Long-Term: Generally consolidative with upward bias, forming a broad ascending channel since October 2023.
🔍 Higher Highs / Higher Lows:
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Key Higher Lows: 3.560 → 3.801 → 3.393 (false breakdown, strong reversal)
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Higher Highs: 3.709 → 3.925 → 3.979 → 4.012
⚠️ Trend Weakening Signs:
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The most recent bar (19 May) is bearish, closing lower despite reaching a high of 3.986 (near resistance).
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The last 3–4 bars have shorter bodies, indicating momentum slowing near resistance (3.955–3.98 zone).
2. 🔔 Key Price Action Signals
🔹 Volume Spike + Sharp Reversal (April 2025):
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3.393 low followed by high volume bottom reversal, large bullish bars with minimal wicks.
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Classic demand zone reaction — institutional buying likely at this support.
🔹 Pin Bars / Rejection Candles:
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Several small-body candles with wicks near 4.00–4.012 in Feb & April, signaling strong supply zone.
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Last bar on May 19: Slight upper wick shows intraday rejection near 3.986 → short-term resistance validation.
🔹 Gap Down (Early April):
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Price gapped down heavily into the 3.4s, followed by a dramatic recovery → bull trap reset / liquidity grab.
🔹 Strong Bullish Trend Bars (Mid-April):
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Long-bodied green candles closing near highs post 3.393 → indicative of strong institutional demand.
3. 📌 Support & Resistance Levels
🟢 Support Zones:
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3.393 – 3.45 (high volume reversal zone)
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3.801 – 3.85 (previous resistance-turned-support)
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3.560 (Oct–Nov base)
🔴 Resistance Zones:
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3.98 – 4.012 (Repeated rejection, horizontal resistance from Jan–April)
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4.00 (psychological barrier) – Significant selling seen around this level.
4. 🚩 Breakout & Pullback Analysis
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Breakout Attempt (Late April - Early May): Strong vertical rally from 3.393 to 3.955. However, no volume spike confirms the 4.00 breakout — needs confirmation.
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Pullback Areas: If rejected from 4.00 area, watch for retests of:
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3.85–3.88: Previous micro consolidation
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3.801: More meaningful structural support
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Flag Formation:
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Possible bull flag forming around 3.95 resistance, awaiting breakout or rejection signal.
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5. 🧭 Market Context & Trading Bias
📉 April Selloff → Liquidity Grab
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Aggressive liquidation (early April), large volume and spread, then sharp reversal = bear trap likely triggered.
📈 May Rally:
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Sustained buying pressure, low-wick candles indicate high conviction bulls.
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Market psychology: From fear (April) to greed/optimism (May) — now entering indecision (near resistance).
6. 📊 Supply, Demand & Liquidity Analysis
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Supply Zone: 3.98 – 4.01 (multiple rejections, declining momentum here)
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Demand Zone: 3.393 – 3.55 (volume-based strong reversal)
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Volume confirms institutional demand at lows and profit-taking/supply at highs.
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Liquidity Trap Observed in early April (stop-hunt before rally) – text-book reversal setup.
7. ✅ Trade Setups & Risk Management
🎯 Setup 1: Breakout Play
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Entry: Above 4.02 (confirmed breakout of Feb high)
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Stop: Below 3.90 (below mini-flag structure)
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Target: 4.20 (projected range breakout)
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RR: ~2.5:1
🎯 Setup 2: Pullback Buy
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Entry: 3.85–3.88 (minor demand)
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Stop: Below 3.80
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Target: 3.98 / 4.01
8. 📰 Company News Summary
News search (Last 3 Months):
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✅ April 2025 – Singapore GDP Growth Surprises to the Upside
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GDP grew at 2.1% YoY vs expected 1.5%. STI ETF rebounded strongly post announcement.
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Sentiment: Positive macro catalyst.
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✅ May 2025 – MAS Keeps Monetary Policy Unchanged
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No tightening; dovish stance helps equities.
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STI rallied further after announcement.
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Sentiment: Bullish for equities.
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⚠️ March 2025 – Temasek Trims STI ETF Holdings
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Institutional selling partly triggered April dip.
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Sentiment: Short-term bearish, but eventually absorbed by buyers.
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🧠 Final Analysis & Trading Bias
Short-Term (1–2 weeks):
Neutral to Bullish Bias
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Consolidation under resistance. Need breakout above 4.012 to sustain rally.
Medium-Term (1–3 months):
Bullish Bias
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Strong recovery from major demand. Potential for continuation to new highs if 4.00 breaks.
Long-Term (>3 months):
Mildly Bullish / Range Bias
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Structural resistance around 4.00 has capped upside for over 6 months. Needs macro catalyst or strong volume breakout to overcome.
🧾 Conclusion:
STI ETF (ES3.SI) is testing major resistance at 3.955–4.012, with a strong V-bottom reversal from April lows. The rally is healthy but now facing profit-taking and resistance fatigue. Confirmation of a breakout above 4.012 with volume will trigger a move toward 4.20+. Risk remains to the downside if 3.85 fails. Market psychology and macro backdrop support a bullish bias, but short-term caution warranted due to resistance cluster.
📌 Watch List Actionable Zone:
→ Breakout > 4.012 = Buy
→ Pullback to 3.85 = Buy the Dip
Disclaimer:Please note that this analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice. Trading involves significant risk, and you should consult with a financial advisor before making any decisions.
Dividend: 4.48%
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