CapLand IntCom Trust -16 May 25

Technical Analysis Report: CAPLAND INTCOM T (SGX:C38U) – 1D Timeframe as of May 16, 2025

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📌 Stock Overview

• Stock: CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust

• Ticker: C38U (SGX)

• Chart Type: Daily Candlestick

• Current Price: SGD 2.06

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1. 🧭 Trend Analysis

Primary Trend Context:

• From June to September 2024, the stock exhibited a strong uptrend, marked by higher highs and higher lows.

• A key trend peak formed at SGD 2.20 (mid-September), followed by a lower high (2.16) in October, suggesting trend weakening.

• From October through January 2025, the stock transitioned into a downtrend, establishing lower highs (2.08 → 1.99 → 1.92) and lower lows (2.03 → 1.90).

• From February through mid-April 2025, sideways range-bound movement prevailed between SGD 1.90 and 2.00, breaking out sharply upwards in late March.

• Currently, the stock rallied back to 2.20 in late April, but recent action shows a pullback toward support at 2.00–2.06, indicating a possible test of demand.

Recent HH/HL or LH/LL:

• Higher Highs: 2.20 (Apr 18 & 29, 2025)

• Recent Pullback Low: 1.96 (April 10, 2025)

• Current Structure: Potential higher low being formed at 2.06, watching 2.00 closely.

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2. 📉 Key Price Action Signals (Bar-by-Bar Analysis)

Volume Spike Events:

• Sep 2024: Large bullish bars on expanding volume up to 2.20 → Strong institutional interest.

• Nov 2024: Bearish breakdown on high volume from 2.08 → breakdown followed by trend continuation.

• Late Mar 2025: Huge bullish breakout bar from 1.90 to ~2.16 on elevated volume, marking end of consolidation and signaling a strong demand zone at 1.90.

• April 2025: Second test and breakout of 2.00 confirms strength; 2.20 re-tested.

Reversal Patterns:

• Pin Bars:

  • Sep 21, 2024: Pin bar at 2.20 → rejection and start of downtrend.

  • May 6–7, 2025: Multiple rejection wicks around 2.20 again → strong supply zone.

• Engulfing Bar:

  • April 4, 2025: Large bullish engulfing bar that breaks 2.00 → continuation confirmed.

Doji & Inside Bars:

• Late Jan–early Feb 2025: Multiple inside/doji bars between 1.90–2.00 → volatility compression pre-breakout.

• April 15–16: Doji after breakout → temporary pause before further rally.

Gap Events:

• No significant unfilled gaps observed – trading has remained tight, likely due to REIT nature.

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3. 🔁 Support & Resistance Levels

Support Zones:

• SGD 2.00 – multiple bounces and consolidation level.

• SGD 1.90 – strong demand zone confirmed by volume.

• SGD 1.96 – minor support (recent local low).

Resistance Zones:

• SGD 2.20 – strong supply zone (double top formation: Sep 2024 & Apr 2025).

• SGD 2.16–2.12 – minor resistance clusters from Aug–Oct 2024.

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4. ⚔️ Breakout & Pullback Analysis

Breakouts:

• March 2025 breakout from 1.90 zone was strong – large green bar, high volume, closes near high.

• April retest of 2.20 failed – reversal from supply, showing weakness in bulls.

Pullbacks:

• Current pullback from 2.20 to 2.06 could be forming a higher low.

• The structure resembles a bull flag above 2.00 support – watching for volume confirmation.

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5. 🧠 Market Context & Trader Psychology

• March–April 2025 rally reflects greed and accumulation, potentially institutional.

• Recent selloff toward 2.06 appears measured, with no panic selling – possible profit-taking and rebalancing ahead of a new leg.

• Traders likely cautious around 2.00 – inflection point.

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6. 📦 Supply, Demand & Liquidity Zones

Supply Zones:

• 2.20: Major institutional supply, seen twice with rejection.

• 2.16–2.12: Secondary supply – price stalls here historically.

Demand Zones:

• 1.90–2.00: Significant demand accumulation (March 2025).

• 1.96: Minor demand, potential double bottom if retested.

Trade Setups:

• Pullback Buy: Near 2.00 with tight stop (~1.95), target 2.16/2.20.

• Breakout Play: Above 2.20 with high volume; target 2.30–2.35.

• Reversal Short: Bearish signal near 2.20 rejection with volume, target 2.00.

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7. ⚖️ Risk Management Strategy

Trade Idea: Bullish Bias – Pullback Buy

• Entry: SGD 2.04–2.06 zone.

• Stop-Loss: Below 1.96 (recent swing low).

• Target 1: 2.16

• Target 2: 2.20

• Risk/Reward: ~1:2.5

Alternative Setup: Breakout Trade

• Entry: Above 2.22 (clear breakout).

• Stop-Loss: 2.08

• Target: 2.35

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8. 📰 Company News Summary (Past 3 Months)

✅ Recent Headlines for CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust (SGX:C38U):

1. March 21, 2025 – The Business Times SG

   • Headline: CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust Acquires Minority Stake in Malaysian Retail Portfolio

   • Summary: CICT expanded its regional exposure, buying a minority interest in a Kuala Lumpur-based retail property. Analysts suggest the move could enhance rental income diversity.

2. April 25, 2025 – Straits Times

   • Headline: CICT Q1 2025 Results: Stable DPU, Strong Leasing Momentum

   • Summary: Distribution per Unit remained stable at SGD 0.028. Notable improvements in tenant retention and positive rental reversions helped support sentiment.

3. May 10, 2025 – Yahoo Finance SG

   • Headline: CapitaLand REITs Eye Redevelopment Opportunities Amid Flat Rent Growth

   • Summary: Management hinted at potential redevelopments to unlock value in older malls, signaling a shift from pure yield focus to capital growth.

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🔚 Conclusion & Final Call

🔍 Summary:

• Trend: Short-term pullback within medium-term uptrend.

• Structure: Higher lows forming; watching for confirmation above 2.06.

• Volume: No panic; healthy consolidation.

• Resistance: 2.20 major ceiling.

• Support: 2.00 key psychological level.

• News: Neutral to slightly bullish (strategic expansion, stable DPU).

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📈 Final Trading Bias:

Timeframe	Bias	Reasoning
Short-Term	Bullish Neutral	Pullback in progress; key support test ongoing at 2.00–2.06.
Medium-Term	Bullish	Higher highs/lows, strong demand zone around 1.90 tested and respected.
Long-Term	Cautiously Bullish	Consolidation above 2.00, strategic acquisitions could bolster fundamentals.

Disclaimer:Please note that this analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice. Trading involves significant risk, and you should consult with a financial advisor before making any decisions.

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