Capland Ascott - 09 May 25

Price Action Analysis: CAPLAND ASCOTT TRUST (SGX: HMN) – Daily Chart (as of May 9, 2025)

1. 🔍 Trend Analysis

• Overall Structure (Sep 2023 – May 2025):
  The market is largely range-bound between SGD 0.85 and 0.985, with some brief spikes above/below.

• Recent Trend (Jan–May 2025):

  • Price recently dropped sharply to a low of SGD 0.770, then recovered back to SGD 0.850.

  • The move down forms a lower low (below 0.840), indicating downtrend pressure.

  • However, the recovery back to previous support hints at potential accumulation.

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2. 🕯️ Key Price Action Signals

🔻 Large Bearish Bar with Volume Spike (Early March 2025)

• Volume spike on the big red bar that hit SGD 0.770

• Bar closed near its low, indicating strong selling pressure

• Potential exhaustion bar or liquidity grab

🔺 Strong Bullish Bar (Late March 2025)

• Bullish engulfing-like bar off 0.770

• Low tail (wick) shows rejection of lower prices

• Followed by multiple bullish closes – signals short-term reversal attempt

🔍 Doji and Inside Bars

• February 2025: Several small-bodied candles near 0.865–0.875 = indecision and low momentum

• Often followed by expansion moves → in this case, the selloff to 0.770

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3. 📉 Support & Resistance Zones

• Support Zones:

  • 0.770 – March 2025 swing low (reaction zone)

  • 0.850 – recent low support (tested multiple times)

  • 0.865 – minor support during late 2024

• Resistance Zones:

  • 0.885–0.900 – repeatedly rejected in early and mid-2024

  • 0.955–0.985 – longer-term resistance (Oct–Nov 2024)

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4. 📈 Breakout & Pullback Behavior

• Breakout to 0.770: Sharp bearish move with volume

  • Weak follow-through = suggests liquidity trap

• Pullback to 0.850: Steady recovery, low-volume grind

  • No breakout above 0.860 = resistance holding for now

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5. 🧠 Market Context & Trading Psychology

• Trader Sentiment:

  • Fear spike at 0.770: Likely stop-outs or panic selling

  • Greed/hope in slow climb back to 0.850

  • Indecision above 0.860 with overlapping bars = lack of strong conviction

• Market Phase: Currently transitioning from minor downtrend to potential accumulation zone

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6. 💼 Supply, Demand & Liquidity

• Demand Spike at 0.770: Volume and long lower wick = buyers absorbing panic

• Supply Zone at 0.885: Consistently acts as a ceiling — sellers re-enter here

• Liquidity Trap: Sudden breakdown below 0.850 led to fast reversal

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7. 🛡️ Risk Management Strategy (Educational Use Only)

Potential Setup: Reversal Play

• Entry: Break above 0.860 with volume

• Stop-Loss: Below recent low or breakout candle (~0.840)

• Target Levels: 0.885 (near resistance), stretch to 0.900

Risk Note: As of May 9, 2025, price is consolidating near key previous support; any trade should account for potential false breakouts and tight ranges.

Disclaimer:Please note that this analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice. Trading involves significant risk, and you should consult with a financial advisor before making any decisions.

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