Aztech Global - 30 May 25

Aztech Global Ltd (SGX: 8AZ) on the daily timeframe as of Friday, 30 May 2025

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1. Trend Analysis

• Primary Trend: Downtrend

  • Confirmed by a sequence of lower highs and lower lows:

    • Highs: 1.04 → 0.80 → 0.795

    • Lows: 0.675 → 0.495

  • Recent sideways action suggests a consolidation phase around 0.53–0.55 after a sharp down leg.

• Trend Weakening/Transition Signals:

  • From early May onward, the stock has moved sideways after hitting 0.495, forming a base pattern. Bars are small, overlapping, and volume is decreasing – signaling reduced selling pressure.

  • The volume spike on the down bar near 0.495 (early May) appears to mark climactic selling, followed by range-bound activity – a classic accumulation phase.

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2. Key Price Action Signals

Volume Spikes & Candle Interpretation

• Massive Red Volume Bar (Late Oct):

  • Strong bearish breakdown from ~1.04 to sub-0.70 in a few days.

  • Huge red bar with follow-through selling, confirmed by very high volume.

  • Indicates institutional liquidation or panic selling.

• Volume Spike (Early March):

  • Tall green bar near 0.70 → 0.80 breakout.

  • Good volume confirms bullish breakout, but lack of sustained higher highs (capped at 0.795) hints at weak follow-through.

• Volume Spike + Large Red Bar (Early May):

  • Large red candle with a long wick down to 0.495 on extreme volume.

  • This could be exhaustion selling, marking the bottom of the current downtrend.

Reversal Patterns

• Pin Bar (Wick Down) at 0.495:

  • Strong tail rejection with high volume suggests buying interest stepped in.

  • Set the short-term support level.

• Small-bodied candles post-bottom indicate indecision but also absorption of selling.

Inside Bars / Doji / Compression

• Several small-bodied candles in the 0.530–0.545 region with low volume.

  • Market is coiling, preparing for potential breakout.

Gap Down (April-May Transition):

• Gap from ~0.74 to ~0.61

  • Massive gap down, likely on negative earnings or downgrade news.

  • The follow-through selling tested 0.495 but stabilized.

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3. Support & Resistance Levels

Level (SGD)	Type	Notes
1.04	Resistance	Breakdown zone in Oct; large red volume.
0.80–0.795	Resistance	Failed rally and lower high.
0.73 / 0.725	Resistance	Minor supply zones.
0.675	Former Support	Broken down; now likely resistance.
0.495	Support	Recent swing low with pin bar on volume.
0.535–0.540	Short-term R	Present price ceiling during consolidation.

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4. Breakout & Pullback Analysis

• Breakout Attempt (March):

  • Break above 0.705 → ran to 0.80. Follow-through was weak → failed breakout.

• Pullback in April:

  • Formed a bull flag, but heavy volume selling at the top (0.795) resulted in a failed continuation and eventual collapse.

• Current Setup:

  • Sideways base formation around 0.535–0.540.

  • If breakout happens above 0.545–0.550 on volume, short-term bullish setup is likely.

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5. Market Context & Trading Bias

• Trend Context: Long-term downtrend, but base building in progress.

• Bias:

  • Short-Term: Neutral-Bullish (possible bounce forming).

  • Medium-Term: Cautiously Bearish, unless 0.675 is regained.

  • Long-Term: Bearish below 0.800/0.795.

Psychology:

• Earlier stages: Fear, capitulation (Oct–May).

• Current: Indecision and early accumulation.

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6. Supply, Demand & Liquidity Analysis

• Supply Zones:

  • 0.675, 0.73, 0.80 – previous highs before sharp reversals.

• Demand Zones:

  • 0.495 – strong rejection tail, significant buying.

• Liquidity Traps:

  • Early May: large volume on 0.495 test could be trap for late shorts.

Potential Trade Setups:

• Pullback Buy: If breakout > 0.545 with volume, enter on pullback to 0.53.

• Breakout Play: Buy > 0.550 with stop at 0.520.

• Reversal Trade: Aggressive buyers can long above 0.540, with tight stop below 0.520.

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7. Risk Management Strategy

• Bullish Trade Plan:

  • Entry: Break above 0.545 with volume spike.

  • Stop-Loss: Below 0.520 (recent range low).

  • Target 1: 0.595 (minor structure).

  • Target 2: 0.675 (major resistance).

• Bearish Trade Plan (if breakdown):

  • Entry: Break below 0.520.

  • Stop-Loss: Above 0.545.

  • Target: Retest 0.495 → if fails, 0.470 (new low potential).

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8. Company News Summary (Last 3 Months)

✅ [May 6, 2025] – Aztech Global Q1 2025 Earnings Miss

• Revenue down 12% YoY; net profit dropped 25%.

• Management cited slower US consumer tech orders and rising costs.

• Stock gapped down sharply on earnings day → likely cause of the 0.495 low.

✅ [April 25, 2025] – Analyst Downgrade

• Regional brokerage downgraded stock to “Hold” from “Buy” with a revised target of SGD 0.60 (from 0.85).

• Noted margin compression and weak order visibility.

✅ [March 12, 2025] – New Contract Win (Positive)

• Won $35 million in new IoT contracts.

• Stock had a brief rally to 0.800 post-announcement – momentum was not sustained.

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Summary & Final Calls

Timeframe	Bias	Notes
Short-Term	🔄 Neutral-Bullish	Base forming; potential breakout > 0.545. Tight range.
Medium-Term	🔻 Bearish	Lower highs intact; needs reclaim of 0.675 to flip bias.
Long-Term	🔻 Bearish	Dominant downtrend since Oct; 1.04 is distant resistance.

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🔍 Key Insights

• 0.495 is a potential medium-term bottom supported by volume and price rejection.

• A break above 0.545–0.55 could trigger a rally to 0.595–0.675.

• Volume is crucial – without it, any breakout attempt may fail.

• Current price structure suggests a low-risk entry zone for bulls, with tight stops.

Disclaimer:Please note that this analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice. Trading involves significant risk, and you should consult with a financial advisor before making any decisions.

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