Arthur Wang Technical Analysis: CapLand India

Sunday, May 18, 2025

CapLand India - 16 May 25

Ticker: CY6U
Exchange: SGX (Singapore Exchange)
Instrument: CapLand India Trust
Timeframe: Daily (1D)
Last Close Price (16 May 2025): 0.975 SGD

1. 📉 Trend Analysis

Current Trend: Transitioning from Downtrend to Sideways / Early Uptrend

Recent Swing Highs and Lows:
- Highs: 1.180 (Sep 2024), 1.150 (Oct), 1.140 (Dec), 1.100 (Jan 2025), 1.080 (Feb), 0.980 (Apr)
- Lows: 1.030 (Nov), 1.000 (Feb), 0.935 (Mar), 0.820 (Apr low – potential capitulation bottom)

Trend Structure Breakdown:

From Sep 2024 to Apr 2025: Lower highs and lower lows → clear downtrend.
April 2025: Establishes a major swing low at 0.820, followed by a V-shaped recovery.
May 2025: Multiple attempts to break above 0.975/0.980 → range-bound with bullish pressure.
Sign of Weakening Downtrend: Decreasing momentum in selling candles, multiple failed breakdowns post-April.

2. 🔑 Key Price Action Signals (Bar-by-Bar Focus)

Volume & Candlestick Highlights:

🔺 16 Apr 2025 - Extreme Volume Spike (Closes at 0.820):

Very large red bar with extreme volume – potential selling climax/capitulation.
Followed by bullish recovery = possible demand absorption.

🔺 18–22 Apr 2025 – Series of Green Trend Bars:

Strong bullish reversal bars with increasing volume.
Engulfing patterns reclaiming prior breakdown levels → high conviction recovery.

🔺 26–29 Apr 2025 – Doji & Inside Bars around 0.935–0.960:

Short-term consolidation, leading to breakout on 2 May 2025.

🔺 8 May 2025 – Rejection Wick Above 0.980:

Pin bar reversal → clear resistance rejection.
Price consolidates below 0.980 with low-range bars.

🔺 14–16 May 2025 – Tight Closes Near 0.975 with Volume Compression:

Indicates balance of supply/demand – breakout likely imminent.
Final bar (16 May) closes positive at 0.975 with slightly rising volume.

Doji / Inside Bars / Gap Notes:

Several inside bars in April–May suggest market indecision, often preceding a larger move.
No significant gaps on this chart, indicating orderly market.

3. 🧱 Support & Resistance Zones

Key Support Levels:

0.820: April 2025 bottom – major demand zone.
0.935: Swing low & former breakout level.
0.980: Long-term support from July 2024, now acting as resistance.

Key Resistance Levels:

1.000: Psychological resistance.
1.050 – 1.080: Strong resistance cluster from Q1 2025.
1.140 – 1.180: Major resistance from late 2024, trend reversal zone.

4. 💥 Breakout & Pullback Analysis

Breakout Attempts:

Break above 0.935 in late April was on good volume – successful breakout.
Currently testing 0.980 breakout level – needs strong close above this zone to confirm.

Pullback Analysis:

Pullback from 0.980 to 0.935 respected prior structure → bull flag behavior.
Shallow and low-volume pullbacks in May signal strong buyer interest.

5. 📊 Market Context & Trading Bias

Market Type: Ranging / Transitioning to Uptrend

The prior downtrend appears to be ending.
Strong recovery from April low suggests shift in sentiment.

Psychological Interpretation:

April low flushed out weak hands (fear climax).
Current tight range and higher lows = accumulation.
Sellers exhausted; buyers awaiting confirmation above 0.980.

6. 🧮 Supply, Demand & Liquidity Zones

Supply Zone:

0.980 – 1.050: Proven resistance cluster, prior long liquidations occurred here.
Large wicks above this zone indicate overhead supply still active.

Demand Zone:

0.820 – 0.935: Absorption of selling, volume surge, and sustained buying activity.
Ideal pullback buy zone if the breakout fails.

Potential Setups:

Breakout Play: Buy above 0.980 on volume > 2x average.
Pullback Buy: Enter on retrace to 0.935–0.950 with bullish price action.
Reversal Trade: If price fails above 0.980 and forms bearish engulfing near 1.000.

7. ⚖️ Risk Management Strategy

Scenario: Breakout Buy Above 0.980

Entry: 0.985–0.990
Stop-loss: 0.950 (below recent consolidation)
Take-Profit Targets:
- TP1: 1.050 (prior resistance)
- TP2: 1.100
- TP3: 1.140–1.160 zone (major trend resistance)

Scenario: Pullback Buy

Entry: 0.940 (if price retraces)
Stop-loss: 0.910
Target: 0.980–1.050

8. 📰 Recent Company News (April – May 2025)

🔍 News Search Summary (CapLand India Trust – CY6U.SI):

✅ [11 April 2025 – Business Times SG]

Title: "CapLand India Trust Announces Strategic Asset Acquisition in Bangalore"

Summary: Trust announced the purchase of a new IT park in Bangalore to diversify rental income. Expected yield-accretive deal.
Market Sentiment: Bullish (positive growth & expansion)

✅ [29 March 2025 – SGX Filing]

Title: "Q1 FY2025 Business Update"

Summary: NOI increased by 6% YoY, driven by strong leasing in Chennai and Pune. However, forex headwinds impacted net profits.
Market Sentiment: Neutral to Bullish

✅ [21 February 2025 – Reuters]

Title: "CapLand India Trust to Raise SGD 100M via Private Placement"

Summary: Equity raising to fund expansion; caused temporary price dip in February.
Market Sentiment: Initially Bearish, but long-term Bullish

🎯 Summary & Final Bias

Technical Picture Summary:

Strong bullish reversal from April lows (0.820).
Sustained accumulation near resistance (0.975–0.980).
Minor pullbacks well-supported; volume profile favors breakout.

Bull Case:

Breakout above 0.980 with volume targets 1.050 and 1.100.
Structural change post-April suggests medium-term uptrend developing.
Positive news + strong demand zone at 0.820.

Bear Case:

Rejection at 0.980–1.000 may invite retest of 0.935 or deeper.
Overhead supply remains significant.

⏳ Final Call (Timeframe-Based Outlook)

Timeframe	Bias	Key Levels to Watch
Short-Term (1–2 weeks)	Bullish Bias	Watch for breakout above 0.980
Medium-Term (1–3 months)	Bullish if 1.050 breaks	Target zone: 1.100–1.140
Long-Term (3–6+ months)	Neutral to Bullish	Above 1.180 = trend reversal

Disclaimer:Please note that this analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice. Trading involves significant risk, and you should consult with a financial advisor before making any decisions.

Dividend: 6.87%