Stock Name & Ticker: Bukit Sembawang Estates Ltd (SGX:B61)
Timeframe: Daily (1D)
Date Range Covered: October 2024 – June 30, 2025
Bars in Analysis Period: Approx. 180 trading days
Current Market Regime Classification:
Trending Uptrend with Minor Consolidation (Transition-to-Trend)
Highest Conviction Observations:
1. Market Structure & Order Flow Analysis:
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Major Swing Highs (SH): 3.68 → 3.67 → 3.63 → 4.04
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Major Swing Lows (SL): 3.51 → 3.51 → 3.19 → 3.86
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Break of Structure (BOS):
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BOS occurred with the breakout above 3.68 in May, followed by a strong rally.
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Second BOS above 4.04 earlier this month (June).
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Change of Character (CHoCH):
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Clear CHoCH on the rally from 3.19 (early May). Marked shift from range-bound behavior to trending behavior.
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Trend Condition:
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Currently making higher highs and higher lows.
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No significant lower low formation since 3.19 base.
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2. Volume-Price Relationship (VPR) Analysis:
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Volume Dry-Up:
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Seen in April just before the explosive move from 3.19 upward, signaling pre-breakout absorption.
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Volume Expansion:
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Heavy volume breakout bar in early May breaking through the 3.63 and 3.67 resistance zones decisively.
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Recent Volume Behavior:
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The June move from 3.86 to 4.04 showed moderate volume on the breakout, but lack of strong follow-through volume, suggesting caution for chase entries.
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Volume Divergence:
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Latest push above 4.00 lacked proportional volume expansion compared to the May breakout move, indicating possible buyer exhaustion or pause before continuation.
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3. Institutional Footprint Recognition:
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Liquidity Grab / Shakeout:
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Large downside flush below 3.19 in April followed by immediate reversal and high volume rally—textbook spring action, likely stop-loss run to fuel larger move.
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Order Block:
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Demand zone identifiable between 3.19 and 3.50 based on April reversal with strong volume reaction.
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Displacement Move:
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Strong directional rally from 3.19 to 4.04 (approx. 25% move in 6 weeks), showing institutional directional commitment.
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FVG (Fair Value Gap):
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Gap exists from 3.70–3.80 due to the aggressive May breakout. This area remains untested and may attract future price revisit.
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4. Bar Pattern Recognition:
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Continuation Signals:
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Multiple bullish continuation bars with controlled pullbacks, shallow retracements post-May breakout.
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Reversal Signals:
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No bearish engulfing or strong reversal candles observed after pullback to 3.86, suggesting bulls still in control.
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Recent Bar Analysis:
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Current bar (June 30) shows bullish close above 4.00 with higher low relative to 3.86—suggesting breakout retest success.
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5. Multi-Timeframe Confluence:
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Higher Timeframe (Weekly Chart Bias - Not Shown but inferred):
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Weekly structure likely in uptrend given sustained rally above 3.70 resistance level with strong weekly closes in May and June.
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Lower Timeframe (Intraday 1H/4H Bias - Not Shown):
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Likely showing coiled bullish consolidation under 4.04 resistance pre-breakout.
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Additional Contextual Factors:
Psychological Levels:
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Round Number Magnet: 4.00 acting as psychological pivot level.
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Next Psychological Target: 4.20, followed by 4.50.
ATR Check (Approximation):
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Recent daily range ~0.08–0.10 SGD, suggesting next target zones for extension should allow for ~0.20–0.30 range progression over coming sessions.
Company Catalysts (Past 90 Days):
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No confirmed major news spikes visible in charted period.
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The rally from 3.19 appears technically driven with potential accumulation signs, but external catalyst research advised for confirmation.
Key Price Levels & Risk Management Parameters:
Level Type | Price | Rationale |
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Immediate Support | 3.86 | Recent swing low, retest zone |
Short-term Resistance | 4.04 | Current range high, breakout level |
Next Bullish Target | 4.20–4.25 | Psychological & measured move |
Major Support | 3.70–3.75 | FVG gap zone + May breakout base |
Stop-Loss Buffer Zone | Below 3.86 | Protect against breakdown risk |
Forward-Looking Bias:
Bullish Bias continuation with primary focus on bullish continuation above 4.04. Expecting breakout above 4.04 with next targets towards 4.20 and 4.25, contingent on volume confirmation. Failure below 3.86 would neutralize short-term bullish thesis.
Trade Summary Sentence Format:
Buying Bukit Sembawang (SGX:B61) because price is holding above 3.86 support post-breakout with recent bullish bar close above 4.00, targeting 4.20 with stops at 3.85 for a 1:2.5 risk-reward ratio.
Confidence Rating: 7.5 / 10
Key Levels to Watch:
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Support: 3.86 → 3.70
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Resistance/Targets: 4.04 → 4.20 → 4.25
Quick Pre-Trade Execution Checklist:
✅ Higher timeframe alignment
✅ Volume confirmation on breakout
✅ Clear structural stop placement
✅ Minimum 1:2 risk-reward
✅ Psychological level awareness
Disclaimer:Please note that this analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice. Trading involves significant risk, and you should consult with a financial advisor before making any decisions.
Dividend: 1.00%