SEMBcorp Industries (U96.SI) – Daily Chart Analysis (Oct 2024 – 25 June 2025)
Timeframe: Daily | Bars Analyzed: ~180
Exchange: SGX | Last Close: 6.84 SGD
1. Market Regime Classification:
Current Regime: Trending to Transitional
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Structure: Higher highs (6.45 → 6.70 → 6.75), and higher lows (5.79 → 5.74 → 6.48) maintained until recent loss of momentum near the 7.00 zone.
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Recent Action: Shift in character as price begins pulling back from 7.00 resistance with two successive bearish bars and softening follow-through.
2. Highest Conviction Observations:
A. Market Structure & Order Flow
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Swing Highs: 5.68 → 5.74 → 6.45 → 6.70 → 6.75 → ~7.00 (potential SH)
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Swing Lows: 5.30 → 5.21 → 5.79 → 5.74 → 6.48
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CHoCH Risk: Price may confirm a short-term CHoCH if 6.48 is breached.
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Trend Momentum Decay: Last impulse from 6.48 to 7.00 shows shortening bar ranges and overlapping candles – early signs of buyer exhaustion.
B. Volume-Price Relationship (VPR)
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Volume Climax (Mid-June): High-volume breakout near 6.48 – likely institutional entry. Follow-through rally capped at 7.00 with volume drying up.
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Volume Divergence: Recent highs around 7.00 formed on declining volume – a warning of weakening commitment.
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Absorption Evidence: Several narrow-bodied candles with higher volume near 6.70–7.00 imply potential distribution or selling into strength.
C. Institutional Footprints
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Liquidity Grab: Minor wick above 6.75 into psychological 7.00 followed by reversal suggests a liquidity run (retail stop sweep).
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Order Block Zone: Bullish order block likely around 6.45–6.50 based on prior strong impulse – now acting as first demand test.
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Fair Value Gap (FVG): Exists between 6.48–6.60; any pullback toward this may attract smart money re-entry.
D. Bar Pattern Recognition
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Recent Bars (June 21–25): Two back-to-back high wick bars near 7.00 with closing weakness – shooting star characteristics.
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Previous Clusters: Sideways bar cluster between 6.60–6.75 shows clear balance before the failed breakout – potential reversion zone.
E. Multi-Timeframe Confluence
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Higher Timeframe (Weekly/Monthly): Likely testing upper channel resistance; the daily pullback aligns with HTF overextension.
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Compression Zone: 6.45–6.75 becomes a structural pivot where HTF demand and LTF resistance converge.
3. Risk-Adjusted Setup Identification
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Potential Long Re-entry Zone: 6.50–6.60 (prior demand, volume node, psychological pivot)
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Initial Stop: Below 6.45 (structural invalidation)
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Profit Target: Retest of 7.00, with extension possible to 7.20 (measured move from last leg up)
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Risk-Reward: ~1:2.5 if entry near 6.55, stop at 6.44, target at 7.00+
4. Key Technical Price Levels
| Level | Role |
|---|---|
| 7.00 | Resistance / Liquidity Grab |
| 6.75 | Near-term resistance |
| 6.48–6.50 | Demand Block (Support) |
| 6.30 | Weekly structure floor |
| 6.00 | HTF psychological level |
5. Forward-Looking Bias
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Bias: Neutral to Slightly Bullish – Awaiting confirmation near 6.50–6.60 to confirm reaccumulation or deeper pullback.
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Validation Trigger: Bullish engulfing bar on volume > 30-day average from demand zone.
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Invalidation Trigger: Breakdown below 6.45 with increasing volume.
Trade Summary Format
Buying SEMBCORP INDUSTRIES (U96.SI) because of structural demand at 6.50–6.60 with stops at 6.44 targeting 7.00 for 1:2.5 risk-reward.
Confidence Rating: 7/10
Key Levels to Watch: 6.48 (demand), 6.75 (resistance), 7.00 (breakout test)
Checklist Before Execution:
☐ Is price approaching or testing 6.50–6.60 zone?
☐ Is volume showing signs of absorption or expansion?
☐ Are higher timeframes still bullish?
☐ Is market context (sector/market trend) supportive?
Disclaimer:Please note that this analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice. Trading involves significant risk, and you should consult with a financial advisor before making any decisions.
Dividend: 2.05%
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