Multi-Chem = 19 Jun 25

Technical Analysis – MULTI-CHEM (SGX: AWZ) – Daily Chart – ~195 Bars (Sept 2024 to 19 Jun 2025)

📊 Current Market Regime:

Transitional > Ranging with Compression Bias
– Recent breakdown and recovery from 2.71 shows structural fragility.
– Volatility compression between 3.05–3.22 suggests imminent expansion.

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🔍 Top 5 Technical Observations

1. Market Structure & Order Flow

• Primary Swing Points:

  • Highs: 3.55 (Feb spike), 3.31, 3.25, 3.22 (lower highs)

  • Lows: 2.71 (April), 3.05, 3.06 (higher lows)

• Change of Character (CHoCH):

  • Occurred in early April with breakdown from 3.25 to 2.71, invalidating prior higher-low structure.

• Current Structure:

  • Rebuilding base between 3.05–3.22, setting a micro-range after recent volatility.

• Momentum:

  • Decaying bar range and tightly overlapping closes signal buy-sell equilibrium and loss of trend velocity.

2. Volume-Price Relationship (VPR)

• Absorption Detected:

  • June candles: low range + moderate volume near 3.10 = institutional absorption, possible positioning before a move.

• Previous Volume Spike:

  • Large volume candle (Feb 3.55) lacked continuation—classic climactic exhaustion followed by range establishment.

• Volume Dry-Up:

  • Recent sessions show volume contraction near 3.10—potential breakout setup in play.

3. Institutional Footprint Recognition

• Liquidity Grab:

  • 2.71 flush in April shows false breakdown trapping late sellers before V-reversal—classic spring structure.

• Order Block Zone:

  • Last down bar before Feb breakout at ~2.87–2.90 forms institutional demand base.

• Fair Value Gap (FVG):

  • FVG around 3.00–3.06 created during vertical move from 2.90 to 3.55—currently being balanced.

4. Bar Pattern & Compression Structures

• Inside Bar Cluster:

  • Multi-day inside bars from June 3–19 indicate energy coiling for directional break.

• Engulfing Bars:

  • No recent high-volume engulfing bar; instead, we see indecisive closes reflecting accumulation inside range.

• Flag-like Compression:

  • Post-3.22 pullback forming tight range—potential bullish continuation flag if volume confirms breakout.

5. Multi-Timeframe & Psychological Confluence

• Higher Timeframe Resistance:

  • 3.25 = clear overhead resistance with multiple rejection wicks.

• Round Number Support:

  • 3.00–3.05 base aligns with psychological round number support.

• Compression Zone:

  • Tight range between 3.05–3.15 with drying volume = breakout volatility expansion zone.

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📈 Key Levels to Watch

• Support Zone: 3.05 / 3.00 (structural base + volume support)

• Resistance Zone: 3.22 / 3.25 (prior swing highs + supply test)

• Breakout Trigger: 3.22+ with volume expansion (bullish breakout confirmation)

• Failure Trigger: Close below 3.00 with volume (invalidates current base)

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🧠 Scenario Planning & Risk Control

• Bullish Scenario:

  • Clean break above 3.22 on volume → Target 3.31 → 3.55 (measured move from base)

  • Stop below 3.00 for risk containment.

• Bearish Scenario:

  • Breakdown under 3.00 → Retest 2.90 or revisit 2.71 on increased supply.

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📝 Execution Summary

Buying AWZ (Multi-Chem) because price is compressing on low volume near structural support (3.05–3.10) after a false breakdown, suggesting accumulation with stops at 2.99, targeting 3.55 for a 1:3.5 R/R setup.
Confidence Rating: 7.5/10

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✅ Checklist Before Execution

• Volume expansion on breakout bar (≥ average 20-day volume)

• Clean close above 3.22

• Stop placement beneath recent absorption level (3.00)

• Risk ≤ 1–2% of account per trade

• Monitor for breakout failure retest

Disclaimer:Please note that this analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice. Trading involves significant risk, and you should consult with a financial advisor before making any decisions.

Dividend:  8.58%