Monday, June 23, 2025

Hong Leong Asia - 23 Jun 25

HONG LEONG ASIA (SGX:H22) – DAILY CHART (OCT 2024 – JUN 23, 2025)
Timeframe: 1D
Analysis Period: ~180 bars (6 months)


🔹 CURRENT MARKET REGIME: Trending (Bullish Bias with Climax Caution)

Price remains in an uptrend with higher highs and higher lows, but signs of short-term exhaustion are emerging post-breakout.


🔍 HIGHEST CONVICTION OBSERVATIONS:

1. Market Structure & Order Flow

  • Swing Highs/Lows:

    • Key Higher Highs: 0.91 → 0.95 → 1.00 → 1.11 → 1.28 → 1.39

    • Key Higher Lows: 0.79 → 0.90 → 0.91 → 1.04 → 1.15

  • Break of Structure (BOS): Confirmed BOS above 1.28 (prior April high) into new high 1.39 on increasing volume.

  • Change of Character (CHoCH): None confirmed yet, though the rejection from 1.39 on June 21 signals potential short-term pause or reversal setup.

  • Trend Momentum: Healthy uptrend with impulsive legs, though bar range compression and overlapping bars near 1.39 suggest buyer exhaustion.

2. Volume-Price Relationship (VPR)

  • Climactic Volume @ 1.39 (June 21): Wide range up-bar into resistance zone followed by red reversal bar with high volume—potential exhaustion or upthrust behavior.

  • Volume Expansion: Clear expansion during breakout above 1.28; however, immediate reversal hints at possible false breakout.

  • Absorption Signs: Low-range bars with heavy volume around 1.13–1.20 base indicate institutional accumulation before the breakout.

  • Volume Divergence: Current pullback to 1.31 happening on lighter volume—no heavy sell pressure yet, suggesting testing phase.

3. Institutional Footprints

  • Liquidity Grab @ 1.39: Spike above 1.28 range high trapped late buyers; failure to hold above suggests smart money distribution.

  • Order Block (1.13–1.20): Prior consolidation zone now acting as support; watch for potential retest.

  • Displacement Move: Breakout bar from 1.20–1.28 was a displacement with volume surge and minimal wick—clear institutional buy-in.

4. Bar Pattern Recognition

  • June 21 Bar (1.39): Long upper wick, wide range, high volume → Shooting Star/Upthrust; institutional trap pattern.

  • June 24 Bar (1.31): Bearish follow-through, small real body, expanding volume → suggests potential short-term pullback continuation.

  • Flag Structure: Minor consolidation forming above 1.28 breakout zone—bullish if price stabilizes above 1.28 with declining volume.

5. Multi-Timeframe Confluence

  • Weekly Context: Weekly swing breakout above 1.28 confirms long-term bullish structure.

  • Daily Overextension: Recent daily breakout is extended from 20EMA zone—potential pullback or reversion to mean toward 1.20–1.25.


📉 PSYCHOLOGICAL & STRUCTURAL LEVELS:

  • Support Zones: 1.28 (breakout zone), 1.20 (consolidation base), 1.15 (swing low)

  • Resistance Zones: 1.39 (current high), 1.50 (round number & psychological level)

  • Key Volume Clusters:

    • Accumulation: 1.04–1.15

    • Distribution: 1.35–1.39


📊 RISK-MANAGEMENT SNAPSHOT:

  • Setup: Pullback toward 1.28–1.25 for long re-entry

  • Stop Loss: Below 1.15 swing low (invalidates uptrend structure)

  • Targets: 1.39 retest (TP1), 1.50 psychological extension (TP2)

  • R/R Ratio: Approx. 1:2.5 (Entry ~1.28, Stop ~1.14, Target ~1.50)


🧭 FORWARD-LOOKING BIAS & TRADING ZONE STRATEGY

  • Bias: Bullish but cautious; awaiting confirmation of support at 1.28 before continuation

  • Confirmation Needed: Reclaim and hold above 1.33 with declining bear volume

  • Failure Scenario: Breakdown below 1.28 on volume could initiate test of 1.20–1.15 demand block


✅ PRE-TRADE EXECUTION CHECKLIST:

  • Volume contraction on pullback?

  • Bullish reversal signal near 1.28?

  • Clear invalidation level defined?

  • Aligning with weekly trend?


📌 TRADE SUMMARY SENTENCE:

Buying HONG LEONG ASIA (SGX:H22) because of bullish breakout structure and institutional absorption zone support at 1.28 with stops at 1.15 targeting 1.50 for 1:2.5 R/R.

Confidence Rating: 7.5 / 10
Key Levels to Watch: Support at 1.28, 1.20 | Resistance at 1.39, 1.50


Disclaimer:Please note that this analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice. Trading involves significant risk, and you should consult with a financial advisor before making any decisions.

Dividend:  2.29%



No comments:

Post a Comment

Singapore Stock Investment Research