Stock Analysis: Nordic Group (SGX: MR7) – 1D Timeframe (Daily Chart) as of 3 June 2025
🔍 1. Trend Analysis
Overall Trend:
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Long-Term: Range-bound (sideways). The stock has moved between SGD 0.285 and SGD 0.370 since mid-2024.
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Recent Price Action: A failed breakout above SGD 0.370 (Oct 2024), followed by sustained price compression.
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Lower Highs: Formed at 0.370 → 0.360 → 0.350.
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Lows Holding: 0.285 (July 2024) → 0.320 (multiple touches) → 0.315 (Jan 2025).
Trend Weakening Signs:
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Multiple inside bars and overlapping candles in recent weeks.
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Repeated rejection at SGD 0.360 suggests heavy overhead supply.
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Narrow bar ranges and decreasing volatility → signs of market indecision or accumulation.
⚡ 2. Key Price Action Signals
Volume Spikes & Bar Reaction:
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Early Aug 2024: Volume spike on a strong bullish bar (from ~0.285 to ~0.32) closed near high → bullish demand response.
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Sep–Oct 2024: Bullish momentum continued with a large green bar through 0.320 and 0.365 → but follow-through failed at 0.370 → reversal signal.
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Feb 2025: Gap up and large volume candle but closed with upper wick, forming a bearish pin bar. No follow-through = buyer exhaustion.
Notable Candlestick Formations:
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Pin Bars / Tails: Jan 2025 and Feb 2025 show upper wicks at resistance, rejecting 0.360–0.365.
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Doji Bars: Seen during March–May 2025 → indecision near 0.330–0.345 zone.
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Inside Bars: Tight price action seen mid-May to early June 2025 → coiling before breakout.
Gap Analysis:
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Gap Up (Feb 2025) → was faded (bearish) = false breakout.
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No follow-through above 0.360 = liquidity trap or stop-hunt.
🧱 3. Support & Resistance Levels
Major Resistance Zones:
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SGD 0.370 – double top (Oct 2024).
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SGD 0.360 – consistent rejection zone (Dec 2024, Jan–Feb 2025).
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SGD 0.350 – minor swing high, rejected recently (May 2025).
Major Support Zones:
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SGD 0.320 – repeatedly held as support (Aug 2024, Jan 2025, Apr 2025).
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SGD 0.285 – major swing low (Jul 2024), key long-term support.
Key Observations:
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Horizontal channel: 0.320–0.360 is the current operating range.
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Tightening coil near 0.330 → breakout likely soon.
📈 4. Breakout & Pullback Analysis
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Breakout Attempts:
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Strong breakout bar in Sep 2024 through 0.320 with volume.
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Failed breakout Feb 2025 (gap up rejected).
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Pullback Structure:
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Healthy pullback to 0.320 post breakout.
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Pullbacks respected horizontal support; no clear dynamic support (e.g., moving average not visible).
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Flags/Pennants: Not classic in structure but price has compressed to tight range → indicates breakout potential.
🌐 5. Market Context & Trading Bias
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Context: Currently in consolidation after failed trend attempts.
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Bias:
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Neutral to slightly bearish near-term unless price breaks above 0.350–0.360 zone with volume.
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Price action shows indecision, low conviction buyers, and presence of supply pressure.
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Trader Psychology:
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Sellers defending 0.360–0.370.
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Buyers protecting 0.320.
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Range tightening = possible accumulation or pre-breakdown compression.
💧 6. Supply, Demand & Liquidity Analysis
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Demand Zone: 0.320–0.330 shows buying interest (notably Aug 2024, Jan 2025, Mar 2025).
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Supply Zone: 0.350–0.370 shows consistent rejection.
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Liquidity Trap: Feb 2025’s gap up is suspect – heavy volume with no continuation.
Potential Trade Setups:
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Pullback Buy: If price drops to 0.320 with low-volume selling, look for bullish reversal candle.
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Breakout Play: Close above 0.360 on volume → long entry targeting 0.370–0.420.
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Reversal Trade: Break below 0.320 on high volume → short opportunity targeting 0.285.
⚠️ 7. Risk Management Strategy
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Breakout Long Setup:
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Entry: Break and close above 0.360 on above-average volume.
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Stop-Loss: Below 0.340 (last minor low).
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Take Profit: 0.370 (conservative), 0.420 (aggressive).
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Support Buy Setup:
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Entry: Bullish pin bar or engulfing bar off 0.320.
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Stop-Loss: Below 0.310.
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Take Profit: 0.345–0.360 range.
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Breakdown Short Setup:
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Entry: Close below 0.320 with high volume.
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Stop-Loss: Above 0.330.
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Take Profit: 0.300–0.285.
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📰 8. Company News – Nordic Group (MR7.SI)
News Summary (Past 3 Months):
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April 9, 2025 – FY2024 Earnings Release
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Reported flat revenue growth, with slight margin compression due to higher material costs.
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Guidance remained conservative for 2025.
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Market reaction: muted, minor drop in volume and price action.
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May 2, 2025 – New Contract Win
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Announced a SGD 12 million contract from a marine engineering customer.
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Positive tone, but market did not react strongly → possibly priced in or lacking investor conviction.
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May 29, 2025 – Dividend Announcement
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Maintained final dividend at 0.015 SGD per share, matching previous year.
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Ex-dividend date is upcoming (June marker on chart).
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Yield is attractive (~4.5%), may attract income-focused buyers.
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📌 Summary & Final Call
| Timeframe | View | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Short-Term | Neutral–Bearish | Price is near bottom of range (0.330), weak buying seen. Risk of breakdown if 0.320 fails. |
| Medium-Term | Neutral | Sideways channel between 0.320–0.360. No conviction for breakout yet. |
| Long-Term | Neutral–Bullish | As long as 0.285 holds, structure remains intact. Accumulation possible if breakout above 0.370 occurs. |
📈 Key Watchlist Levels:
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Support: 0.320 (major), then 0.285.
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Resistance: 0.350 (minor), 0.360 (major), 0.370 (breakout level).
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Breakout Trigger: Daily close above 0.360 on high volume.
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Breakdown Trigger: Daily close below 0.320.
Disclaimer:Please note that this analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice. Trading involves significant risk, and you should consult with a financial advisor before making any decisions.
Dividend: 4.24%
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