Stock Analysis Report – HPL (SGX: H15) – Daily Timeframe
Date of Analysis: 11 June 2025
Bars Reviewed: ~320 (Mar 2024 – Jun 2025)
✅ Current Market Regime Classification: Bullish Breakout – Early Momentum Phase
🔍 Highest Conviction Observations
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Trend Structure Shift (CHoCH & BOS Detected)
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Clear CHoCH observed when price broke above the prior significant swing high at 3.85 (Mar 2025), leading to a BOS at 4.72 in early June.
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Higher swing lows at 3.20 → 3.60 → 4.10 form a strong bullish structure.
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Clean vertical displacement confirms strong institutional intent.
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Volume-Price Signature & Institutional Imprints
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Massive volume surge between May 15–Jun 5, aligning with wide-range bullish bars – suggests institutional buying.
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Post-breakout consolidation (around 4.30–4.45) accompanied by declining volume = classic volume dry-up scenario before potential next leg up.
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Absorption & Shakeout Signals
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The sharp dip to 3.20 in April was an institutional shakeout, triggering stop-loss orders before initiating an accumulation rally.
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Small-bodied candles near 4.44 despite above-average volume indicate absorption near supply zones – large players are reloading rather than distributing.
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Fair Value Gap (FVG) + Displacement Evidence
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FVG between 3.75–4.05 created during explosive move – untested, likely to act as reaccumulation demand zone.
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Displacement move from 3.60–4.72 is structurally clean with minimal retracement, confirming institutional pressure.
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Bar Pattern Complex Near Resistance
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Multiple inside bars between 4.35–4.44 = coiled energy at resistance.
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Break above 4.46 could trigger a measured move towards ~5.30, based on initial impulse length (3.20 to 4.72 = +1.52).
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🧠 Multi-Timeframe Confluence
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Weekly Timeframe Bias: Strong breakout candle past multi-month range (3.50–3.85), confirms macro-level accumulation breakout.
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Daily + Weekly Alignment: Higher lows and wide-range breakout bars align across both timeframes.
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Timeframe Compression: Daily inside bar cluster forms below recent highs = energy building across timeframes.
🎯 Critical Price Levels & Context
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Immediate Resistance: 4.46 (near-term swing high) → Break could confirm fresh leg.
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Primary Support: 4.10 (prior breakout level) → Ideal invalidation zone for swing longs.
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Demand Cluster (FVG zone): 3.75–4.05 → Likely to attract buy interest on pullbacks.
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Measured Move Target: 5.30 (based on impulse projection).
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Macro Stop Level: 3.95 (below current structure, under consolidation floor).
⚠️ Risk Management & Setup Quality
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Setup Type: Post-breakout consolidation with absorption – high-R multiple potential.
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Risk Zone: Below 4.10 with hard stop at 3.95.
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Reward Zone: Initial target 5.30 (measured move), RR ≈ 1:3.
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Entry Condition: Break of 4.46 with volume > 150% of 20-day average or re-entry near 4.10 on low-volume pullback.
🔮 Forward-Looking Bias
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Bias: Bullish continuation with potential re-accumulation beneath 4.72.
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Confirmation Required: High-volume breakout of 4.46 or retest of 4.10 holding firm with declining sell volume.
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Catalyst Watch: No visible earnings gaps recently, volume spike suggests potential insider activity or news anticipation.
✅ Trade Summary Sentence Format
Buying HPL (SGX: H15) because of institutional breakout from re-accumulation base with stops at 3.95, targeting 5.30 for a 3:1 risk-reward ratio.
Confidence Rating: 8.5/10
Key Levels to Watch: 4.10 (support), 4.46 (breakout trigger), 5.30 (target)
✅ Pre-Execution Checklist
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Confirm breakout volume > 150% of 20-day average
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Watch for failed breakout at 4.46 → possible trap
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Validate broader market conditions (SGX index strength)
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Check for fundamental catalysts/news triggers
Disclaimer:Please note that this analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice. Trading involves significant risk, and you should consult with a financial advisor before making any decisions.
Dividend: 0.90%
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