City Dev - 10 Jun 25

CITYDEV (City Developments Limited) - C09.SI Technical Analysis

Chart Timeframe: Daily | Analysis Period: June 2024 - June 10, 2025 | Current Price: SGD 5.19

Market Regime Classification: TRANSITIONAL RECOVERY

CITYDEV demonstrates a transitional regime emerging from a significant accumulation phase, currently exhibiting early-stage institutional markup characteristics with professional volume signatures indicating smart money positioning.

Critical Structural Analysis

Market Structure Mapping

Primary Trend Structure:

• Swing Low Formation: 4.32 (March 2025) - Major structural support established
• Break of Structure (BOS): 4.76 level breach in April marked institutional accumulation completion
• Current Structure: Higher highs and higher lows pattern establishing since March low
• Change of Character (CHoCH): Decisive volume expansion above 5.00 psychological level indicates regime shift

Institutional Footprint Recognition

Smart Money Concepts Identified:

1. Liquidity Grab at 4.32: Classic institutional shake-out with climactic volume followed by immediate reversal - textbook smart money accumulation
2. Order Block Formation: 4.76-4.90 zone represents last opposing supply before major markup phase
3. Fair Value Gap (FVG): 4.95-5.05 inefficient pricing area showing institutional displacement
4. Current Displacement Move: Strong directional pressure from 4.32 to 5.19 with minimal retracement

Advanced Volume-Price Relationship Analysis

Critical Volume Signatures:

• Absorption Pattern: High volume at 4.32 low with narrow range indicates institutional accumulation
• Volume Expansion: Breakout above 5.00 shows authentic professional movement vs. retail false breaks
• Volume Divergence Absence: Price and volume moving in harmony suggests sustainable trend
• Recent Volume Dry-Up: Decreased participation at current levels indicates preparation for next leg

Wyckoff Methodology Integration

Current Phase Assessment: Late Accumulation/Early Markup

• Spring Action Completed: 4.32 low represents classic spring below previous support
• Test and Retest Pattern: 4.76-4.90 zone acting as support after resistance break
• Sign of Strength (SOS): Volume expansion on breaks above key levels
• Backup to Edge (BU): Current consolidation around 5.19 represents healthy pullback

Bar Pattern Recognition

Reversal Confirmation:

• Hammer Formation: March 2025 low shows classic reversal with long lower wick and strong volume
• Engulfing Pattern: Multiple bullish engulfing patterns during April-May recovery phase
• Outside Bar Analysis: Wide-range bars with strong closes indicating institutional participation

Continuation Signals:

• Inside Bar Complex: Current consolidation creating coiled energy for next move
• Flag Formation: Recent pullback represents 38.2% retracement of primary impulse move
• Measured Move Projection: Initial impulse 4.32-5.37 suggests target zone 6.20-6.40

Recent Catalyst Integration

Fundamental Catalyst Analysis: City Developments reported strong Q1 2025 performance with significant increase in property sales in Singapore, driven by successful launch of The Orie project. This fundamental catalyst aligns with technical breakout timing, suggesting sustainable momentum.

Catalyst-Technical Confluence:

• Strong earnings coincided with volume expansion above 5.00 level
• News-driven breakout supported by underlying technical structure
• Institutional participation evident in volume signatures during catalyst period

Risk-Adjusted Setup Identification

High-Probability Zones:

1. Current Level (5.19): Confluence of 61.8% retracement and previous resistance
2. Support Cluster: 4.95-5.05 FVG zone provides multiple entry opportunities
3. Breakout Zone: 5.37 previous high represents key breakout level

Trade Management Framework:

• Initial Stop: Below 4.90 order block (4.5% risk from current level)
• Primary Target: 6.20-6.40 measured move projection (20-23% upside potential)
• Risk-Reward Ratio: 1:4.5 at current levels
• Partial Profit Strategy: Scale out at 5.60 (previous resistance) and 6.00 (psychological level)

Institutional Supply/Demand Analysis

Order Flow Assessment:

• Demand Absorption: Institutional buyers absorbed supply at 4.32-4.76 range
• Supply Exhaustion: Volume dry-up at higher levels indicates reduced selling pressure
• Professional Participation: Volume-Price Analysis confirms smart money involvement throughout recovery

Forward-Looking Bias & Key Levels

Bullish Bias Maintained based on:

• Structural integrity of higher highs/higher lows pattern
• Volume confirmation of professional participation
• Fundamental catalyst support
• Attractive risk-reward positioning

Critical Levels to Monitor:

• Immediate Resistance: 5.37 (previous high)
• Key Support: 4.95-5.05 (Fair Value Gap)
• Major Support: 4.76-4.90 (Order Block)
• Breakout Target: 6.20-6.40 (Measured Move)

Market Regime Triggers:

• Break above 5.37 confirms trending regime establishment
• Hold above 4.95 maintains transitional recovery bias
• Break below 4.76 suggests return to ranging/accumulation phase

Conviction Assessment

Highest probability scenario: Continuation of institutional markup phase targeting 6.20-6.40 zone with current level providing attractive risk-adjusted entry opportunity. The confluence of technical structure, volume confirmation, and fundamental catalyst support creates compelling setup for institutional-grade positioning.

Disclaimer:Please note that this analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice. Trading involves significant risk, and you should consult with a financial advisor before making any decisions.

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