ThaiBev - 06 Jun 25

Technical Report – THAIBEV (Y92.SI)

Exchange: SGX | Timeframe: Daily | Date Range: Aug 2024 – 6 Jun 2025 | Bars Analyzed: ~200
Asset Class: Equities (Staples Sector) | Chart Context: Base forming after confirmed downtrend, post-earnings consolidation

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🧭 1. Market Structure & Order Flow Analysis

• Trend Phase: Dec 2024 to May 2025 = confirmed downtrend (lower highs & lower lows).

• Recent Structure:

  • Swing Highs: 0.595 (Dec), 0.570 (Jan), 0.530 (Mar), 0.520 (May)

  • Swing Lows: 0.495 (Mar), 0.455 (May)

• CHoCH: Holding above 0.455 = potential structural shift

• Momentum Decay: Range compression, overlapping candles near lows → indicates trend exhaustion

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📈 2. Advanced Volume-Price Relationship (VPR)

• Absorption: Late May–June: high volume + small body bars (professional demand at 0.455–0.470)

• Climactic Volume: 17 May – wide red bar + volume surge = selling climax

• Volume Divergence: Price base forming with falling volume → early bullish divergence

• Current Volume Pattern: Inside bar formation with volume dry-up = setup potential

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🧠 3. Institutional Footprint Recognition

• Spring Action: 17 May dip under 0.455 with strong reversal = liquidity grab

• Order Block Zone: Bearish bar 16 May (pre-engulfing reversal) defines demand zone at 0.455–0.460

• Fair Value Gap (FVG): 0.480–0.485 = unfilled inefficient move → potential magnet

• Displacement Awaited: Breakout bar with strong range + volume needed to validate accumulation

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🔁 4. Bar Pattern Recognition

• Reversal Signal: 30 May – bullish engulfing with demand volume

• Continuation Setup: Multiple inside bars (3–6 June) forming energy coil

• Indecision Bars: 4–5 June spinning tops at support = transitional candles

• No Gaps: All movement appears technical; no breakaway or exhaustion gaps visible

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🕵️‍♂️ 5. Multi-Timeframe Confluence

• Weekly Support Zone: Strong structure 0.450–0.460 = aligns with current base

• Compression: Multiple timeframe alignment of support → range breakout could trigger higher time frame move

• Confluence Zone: 0.455–0.475 = demand + structure + inside bar energy

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💵 6. Psychological Levels

• 0.500: Critical psychological barrier + structure resistance

• 0.450: Long-term macro support (weekly)

• ATR Context: ~0.01 → breakout should show at least 2x ATR for validation (~0.495+)

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🧮 7. Risk-Adjusted Setup

• Entry Trigger: Close above 0.475 with volume confirmation

• Stop Loss: Below 0.455 (structure invalidation zone)

• Targets:

  • TP1: 0.500 – psychological & structural resistance

  • TP2: 0.520 – swing high & FVG completion

• R/R Ratio: ~2.5:1 potential (favorable)

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🔄 8. Market Regime Classification

• Prior Regime: Clear downtrend

• Current Regime: Transition to range → volatility compression, absorption

• Expected Shift: Transition → trend, pending breakout

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📦 9. Institutional Supply/Demand Analysis

• Demand Zone: 0.455–0.465 (confirmed absorption, climax reversal)

• Effort vs. Result: High effort (volume) + small movement = accumulation

• Supply Test Pending: 0.475–0.480 – next test zone for institutional conviction

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🌐 10. Market Context & Correlation

• Sector: Consumer Staples – typically defensive, slow-moving

• Relative Strength: Lagging SGX composite slightly, but tracking broader stability

• Seasonal Consideration: June = base-building month historically; aligns with pattern

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📣 11. Recent Company Catalysts

• Q2 FY2025 Earnings (May 9):

  • Revenue up 19% YoY (THB 86.4B), net profit down 3.2% YoY (THB 6.74B)

  • EPS miss: Actual S$0.0105 vs S$0.304 estimated (−96.5%)

  • Revenue miss: S$3.34B vs estimate S$7.03B

• Dividend Announced:

  • Ex-date: May 22, 2025

  • Payment Date: June 6, 2025

• Interpretation: Mixed – strong revenue growth but profit margin pressures

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🧾 12. Fundamental Catalyst Integration (Web Search Verified)

• Strategic Capital Move (June 4):

  • ThaiBev launched a US$2B multicurrency debt issuance program – potential funding for expansion or refinancing

• DBS Research Cut Forecasts (May 14):

  • FY2025/26 EPS revised down by 17–20% due to Thai spirit segment headwinds

  • Price target lowered from S$0.77 to S$0.63

• Annual Shareholder Info Meeting:

  • Scheduled for June 20, 2025 – could generate interest or policy updates

• Catalyst Implication:

  • Short-term sentiment neutral to slightly negative (EPS miss + downgrade)

  • Technically driven base more likely than news-driven rally unless fresh updates emerge

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✅ Executive Summary

• Market Regime: Transition from downtrend to range base

• Technical Structure: Absorption + CHoCH + inside bar coil

• Volume Behavior: Professional absorption + dry-up

• Fundamental Context: Mixed-to-weak short-term sentiment; no bearish catalyst ahead

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📌 Trade Summary

Buying THAIBEV (Y92.SI) because of accumulation signs near Spring low and range compression under CHoCH with stops at 0.455 targeting 0.520 for a 2.5R setup.
Confidence Rating: 7/10
Key Levels:

• Support: 0.455 / 0.465

• Resistance: 0.475 / 0.500 / 0.520

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✅ Pre-Execution Checklist

• Volume absorption confirmed at support

• No bearish news catalyst

• Tight stop structure

• Favorable R:R ratio

• Multi-timeframe support alignment

Disclaimer:Please note that this analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice. Trading involves significant risk, and you should consult with a financial advisor before making any decisions.

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