Riverstone - 20 Jun 25

RIVERSTONE (SGX: AP4) — Daily Chart Analysis
Date Range: Oct 2024 – 20 Jun 2025 | Chart Timeframe: 1D | Bars Analyzed: ~180

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✅ Current Market Regime: Bearish Trend Continuation / Distribution Phase

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🔍 Highest Conviction Observations

1. Break of Structure (BOS) Confirmed:

   • Clear BOS occurred below 0.830 (April low), invalidating prior intermediate demand zone. Market structure turned definitively bearish with a lower low and lack of recovery above 0.945 swing highs.

2. Climactic Volume + Wide Range Breakdown (Early May):

   • A sharp, wide-range breakdown from 0.940 to ~0.70 occurred on expanding volume — a potential displacement move by institutions triggering liquidity below prior consolidation base.

   • This is characteristic of institutional distribution, with panic-like volume reflecting forced selling or exit activity.

3. Absorption and Retest Failure (June):

   • Attempts to stabilize near 0.70–0.75 saw higher volume with smaller ranges, particularly around 13–17 June, indicating absorption (distribution), not accumulation.

   • The recent bar (20 June) confirms rejection, with heavy volume and full-body red candle — likely follow-through supply rather than seller exhaustion.

4. Volume Cluster Zone & Supply Overhang:

   • The 0.700–0.750 zone shows clustered high volume without upward progress, confirming institutional supply dominance.

   • This zone acts as a firm resistance until a clean reclaim occurs with decisive bullish follow-through.

5. Failed Demand Zones & Retail Traps:

   • Retail likely trapped during late May bounce toward 0.740–0.750 — a classical dead cat bounce within a dominant downtrend.

   • Price rejected cleanly from prior order block at 0.740, suggesting smart money defended the level.

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🔎 Technical Breakdown Summary

Market Structure:

• Swing Highs: 1.12 → 1.07 → 0.945 → 0.94 (Lower Highs)

• Swing Lows: 1.03 → 0.83 → 0.655 (Lower Lows)

• Confirmed Bearish Structure.

Volume Analysis:

• High Volume + Wide Range (Breakdown): May 1–3

• Volume Absorption (June 10–18): Price stalls near 0.70–0.74 on volume spikes.

• Current Candle (Jun 20): High effort, bearish result — supports ongoing distribution.

Institutional Footprint:

• Displacement move: Sharp collapse post-0.94 rejection

• Fair Value Gap: Exists between 0.88–0.76; price may revisit briefly before continuation

• Order Block Supply: 0.74–0.76 remains key resistance

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📊 Key Levels to Watch

Level	Type	Comment
0.740	Order Block / Supply Zone	Failed retest level, potential short entry
0.655	Current Close	Weak close, bias remains to the downside
0.600	Target Zone / Demand Test	Psychological and structural demand test
0.830	Broken Support	Should act as resistance if retested

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⚠️ Risk Management Parameters

• Entry Bias: Bearish continuation below 0.655

• Stop Placement: Above 0.750 (recent swing high & absorption zone)

• Initial Target: 0.600 (recent support base / psychological round number)

• Secondary Target: 0.540 (next historical structural demand)

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⏳ Forward-Looking Bias & Setup Summary

Selling Riverstone (AP4) because of institutional distribution confirmed by BOS, climactic breakdown volume, and failed absorption zone retests with stops at 0.750, targeting 0.600 for ~2.3:1 risk-reward ratio.
Confidence Rating: 8.5 / 10
Reminder Checklist Before Execution:

• Confirm breakdown follow-through below 0.650 on increasing volume

• Monitor higher timeframe confluence (weekly support near 0.600)

• Avoid chasing entry — wait for retracement or consolidation

Disclaimer:Please note that this analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice. Trading involves significant risk, and you should consult with a financial advisor before making any decisions.

Dividend:  5.50%