Friday, November 14, 2025

QAF - 14 Nov 2025

QAF LTD (SGX: Q01) — Technical Analysis

Timeframe: 1D
Date Range: Mar → 14 Nov 2025
Last Traded Price: 0.885

1. Market Regime Classification (Lead Section)

Current Regime: Late-range → Early distribution bias
Characteristics observed:

Price has been sideways between 0.880 – 0.910 for ~2.5 months.
Lower highs forming after the 0.915 July spike.
Repeated failure to hold above 0.905 / 0.910 (supply zone).
Demand tail weakens at 0.880 — buyers absorbing less volume than before.

The market is transitioning from range-bound equilibrium to soft distribution, but not yet a confirmed downtrend.

2. Highest-Conviction Observations (Key Takeaways)

1. 0.880 is the most important near-term demand zone

It has been defended repeatedly since July.
But recent bars show weak rejection wicks and shrinking demand volume.
If 0.880 breaks on expanding volume → trend shift (CHoCH) to downside.

2. 0.905–0.910 is a clear institutional supply block

Multiple rejections with wide-range down bars from this zone.
Volume is heavier on down-moves, indicating professional selling.

3. Volume signature suggests quiet distribution

Up-bars frequently occur on subdued volume → weak buying commitment.
Down-bars show higher effort without major upward retracement → supply dominant.

4. Momentum is decaying

Smaller real bodies over the last 3 weeks.
Overlapping candles typical of absorption or distribution phases.
Lack of follow-through after every micro-rally.

5. Structural compression is building

Price is trapped in a tightening band (0.885 ± 0.010).
Suggests a coming displacement move once liquidity pools are cleared.

3. Market Structure & Order Flow Analysis

Swing Highs (SH)

0.915 (July) → Major SH
0.905 (Aug) → Lower high
0.910 (Oct) → Another lower high
Trend: Series of lower highs → soft distribution bias

Swing Lows (SL)

0.840 (early Jul)
0.860 (late Aug)
0.880 (multiple tests Sep–Nov)
Trend: Higher lows until Sep → then flattening → now weakening

Break of Structure (BOS) & CHoCH

No confirmed bearish BOS yet.
CHoCH signal will trigger below 0.880 with volume expansion.

Momentum Decay

Candle ranges shrinking from Oct → Nov.
Overlap density increasing.
This is classic pre-move compression.

4. Advanced Volume-Price Relationship (VPR)

Absorption Evidence

Many high-volume small-range bars near 0.905–0.910 → supply absorption.

Volume Divergence

Price retested 0.910 in Oct with lower volume than Aug/Jul → weakening demand.

Critical Volume Patterns

Dry-up near 0.885–0.890 → market waiting for trigger.
No strong volume expansion on any recent up-move → rallies lack sponsorship.

5. Institutional Footprint Recognition

Liquidity Grabs

Spikes to 0.915 (July) and 0.910 (Oct) both reversed quickly → classic stop-run behaviour.

Order Block (Supply)

Identifiable at:

0.905–0.910: last bearish block before multiple drops.

Fair Value Gaps (FVG)

Several micro-FVGs left in July’s vertical rally; most have been filled → structure is efficient now.

Displacement Move Watch

A break below 0.880 could trigger the next displacement to 0.860.

6. Bar Pattern Recognition

Patterns visible:

Reversal Bars

Multiple upper-wick bars at 0.905–0.910 → selling pressure.

Inside-Bar Clusters

Many inside bars in late Oct → volatility compression → energy coiling.

Continuation / Failure

No sustained bullish engulfing bars since July’s rally → weak trend resumption.

7. Multi-Timeframe Confluence

Higher Timeframe (Weekly)

Weekly shows a broad sideways bracket between 0.85–0.92.
Current daily price sits at the lower third of that weekly bracket.
Weekly volume also declining → directionlessness.

Confluence zone:

0.880 is both a weekly and daily demand zone → extremely important level.

8. Psychological & Structural Levels

0.900 – Psychological magnet, repeatedly rejected.
0.880 – Critical structural support.
0.860 – Next liquidity zone if 0.880 breaks.
ATR context – recent bars are well below ATR(14) → volatility contraction.

9. Supply/Demand Imbalance Zones

Supply Zones

0.905–0.910 (strong)
0.895–0.900 (minor internal supply)

Demand Zones

0.880 (major)
0.860 (next demand shelf)

Effort vs Result:

High effort down-moves are producing clean downward closes → supply > demand.

10. Catalysts (Technical Only)

No major earnings-gap behaviour visible.
Price reactions are mostly technical, not catalyst-driven.

11. Execution Framework (Actionable Section)

Bias: Neutral → Bearish if 0.880 breaks

High-Probability Levels to Watch

Level	Importance	Reason
0.880	★★★★★	Daily + Weekly support, CHoCH trigger if lost
0.895	★★★	Minor internal resistance
0.905–0.910	★★★★★	Institutional supply block
0.860	★★★★	Next downside magnet if 0.880 fails

Possible Scenarios

Scenario A — Bullish (Needs confirmation)

Condition: Strong rejection + volume at 0.880
Path: 0.885 → 0.895 → test 0.905
Probability: Low–Moderate

Scenario B — Bearish (High probability if 0.880 breaks)

Condition: Wide-range bearish bar breaking 0.880
Path: 0.880 → 0.860 (first target)
Probability: Moderate–High

Scenario C — Compression Continues

Price chops 0.885–0.900 for 1–2 more weeks → volatility squeeze → breakout.

12. Risk Management

If Long

Stop must be below 0.880 (structural invalidation).
Partial profit at 0.900.
Full exit into 0.905–0.910 due to heavy supply.

If Short (Only if 0.880 breaks)

Entry: 0.878–0.882
Stop: Above 0.892
Target 1: 0.860
Target 2: 0.840 (if selloff accelerates)

Forward-Looking Conclusion

QAF is currently in a tight compression zone within a larger multi-month range, but the weight of evidence (volume, structure, swing pattern, supply dominance) leans toward a bearish break of 0.880 unless a strong demand bar appears soon.

Key level deciding the next 4–6 weeks: 0.880

Break → downtrend initiation
Hold → range extension back to 0.900–0.910

Disclaimer:Please note that this analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice. Trading involves significant risk, and you should consult with a financial advisor before making any decisions.

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