Wilmar - 09 Jan 2026

• Stock: Wilmar International Limited

• Ticker: F34 (SGX)

• Timeframe: Daily (1D)

• Analysis Period: ~Apr 2025 → Jan 2026

• Bars Analyzed: ~190–200 daily bars

• Last Traded Price: ~3.11 SGD

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1. Market Regime Classification (Lead)

Current Regime: Post-distribution range / corrective consolidation

• Transitioned from strong uptrend → distribution → corrective range

• Volatility compression after a sharp markdown from highs

• No confirmed trend resumption yet

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2. Macro Market Structure & Order Flow

Primary Structure (Apr → Oct)

• Lower highs + overlapping ranges from Apr–Jun

• Clear range-bound / distribution structure

• Repeated failure above ~3.20–3.25 → supply dominance

Structural Low Formation

• July Low ~2.87

• High volume with limited downside follow-through

• Classic institutional absorption (effort > result)

Break of Structure (BOS)

• Late Oct / Early Nov:

  • Clean BOS above ~3.05–3.10

  • Strong expansion bars + volume confirmation

  • Marks trend transition from range → impulsive advance

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3. Impulse Leg & Institutional Footprint (Nov)

Displacement Move

• Nov rally: ~2.95 → 3.37

• Characteristics:

  • Wide-range bullish candles

  • Expanding volume

  • Minimal overlap

• Institutional demand clearly in control

Exhaustion Signal

• At ~3.37 high:

  • Climactic wide-range bar

  • Followed by upper-wick rejection

• Signals buying climax / distribution onset

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4. Distribution & Markdown (Dec)

Change of Character (CHoCH)

• Failure to hold above ~3.30

• First lower high

• Subsequent impulsive bearish candle with volume expansion

Markdown Leg

• Price drops swiftly to ~3.02

• Volume elevated but not panicked

• Suggests controlled institutional exit, not retail capitulation

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5. Current Micro-Structure (Late Dec → Now)

Structure

• Range: ~3.02 (support) → ~3.15–3.18 (resistance)

• Tight candles, overlapping bodies

• Volatility contraction

Volume Behavior

• Volume dry-up near 3.02

• No aggressive sell pressure

• Indicates passive accumulation / balance, not breakdown

Effort vs Result

• Multiple down bars near support

• Downside progress minimal

• Reinforces absorption by stronger hands

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6. Key Institutional Levels

Level	Interpretation
3.37	Distribution high / major supply
3.28–3.30	Failed continuation zone
3.15–3.18	Range resistance / decision level
3.08–3.10	Prior BOS / pivot
3.02	Structural support + absorption
2.95–2.98	Last demand before impulse

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7. Bar Pattern & Price Behavior

Bullish Signals

• Small-range down bars near 3.02

• Long lower wicks on declining volume

• No bearish expansion follow-through

Bearish Risk

• Lack of strong bullish expansion off support

• Indicates accumulation still incomplete

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8. Institutional Scenarios (Forward-Looking)

Scenario A: Accumulation → Re-Expansion (Higher Probability)

• Hold above 3.02

• Break and accept above 3.18

• Target zones:

  • 3.28

  • 3.35–3.37

Scenario B: Range Failure / Liquidity Sweep

• Flush below 3.00

• Quick reclaim above 3.02

• Would confirm spring / shake-out

Scenario C: Bearish Continuation (Lower Probability)

• Clean break & acceptance below 2.98

• Opens path toward 2.87–2.90

• Requires volume expansion, currently absent

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9. Risk-Adjusted Trade Framework (Technical)

Bias: Neutral-to-bullish (conditional)

• Long Interest Zone: 3.00–3.03

• Invalidation: Daily close < 2.98

• Upside Objectives:

  • TP1: 3.18

  • TP2: 3.28

  • TP3: 3.35+

• R:R Profile: ~1:2.5 to 1:3 if triggered correctly

No chase entries. Confirmation requires range expansion + volume.

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10. Highest-Conviction Observations (Summary)

1. July low (~2.87) was institutional accumulation, not capitulation

2. Nov rally was a clean institutional displacement move

3. 3.37 marked a textbook buying climax & distribution

4. Current price action shows absorption above 3.02, not weakness

5. Market is coiling for resolution, direction depends on volume expansion

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Final Professional Bias

Wilmar is not bearish, but not yet trending. The market is in post-distribution re-accumulation or redistribution. Directional conviction only emerges on acceptance outside 3.02–3.18.

Key level to watch: 3.18
That level will decide whether institutions re-engage or fade the structure.

Disclaimer:Please note that this analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice. Trading involves significant risk, and you should consult with a financial advisor before making any decisions.

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