UOL - 27 Jan 2026

1. Chart Setup & Context

Stock: UOL Group Limited (SGX: U14)
Timeframe: Daily (1D)
Date Range: ~Jun 2025 → 27 Jan 2026
Bars in Analysis: ~160+ daily bars
Last Traded Price: 11.18
Session Range (latest bar): O 10.56 / H 11.18 / L 10.56 / C 11.18
Volume (latest bar): Elevated vs recent average

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2. Current Market Regime (Lead With Regime)

Primary Regime:
➡️ Strong Trending Regime – Late-Stage Mark-Up (Wyckoff Phase E)

Key Characteristics Present

• Persistent Higher Highs (HH) / Higher Lows (HL)

• Shallow pullbacks (mostly <38.2%)

• Increasing upside displacement

• Breakouts accompanied by volume expansion

• Minimal overlap between swings

⚠️ However, late-trend extension risk is now elevated.

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3. Macro Market Structure & Order Flow

Structural Mapping (Key Swings)

• Major HL sequence:
  5.84 → 7.22 → 7.81 → 8.32 → ~8.90 → 10.00+

• Break of Structure (BOS):

  • Clean BOS above 8.75–8.84 (Nov)

  • Another BOS above 9.00 psychological

  • Recent BOS above 10.50, triggering acceleration

• No CHoCH detected yet

  • Trend integrity remains intact

  • No violation of prior HLs

➡️ Structure = intact, directional, institutional-controlled

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4. Bar-by-Bar & Volume-Price Relationship (VPR)

Key Observations by Phase

A. Early–Mid Accumulation to Mark-Up (Jun–Sep)

• Multiple high-volume narrow-range bars around:

  • ~6.00–6.20

  • ~7.20–7.40
    ➡️ Absorption confirmed (institutions building positions quietly)

B. Controlled Mark-Up (Sep–Dec)

• Rising price with moderate but consistent volume

• Pullbacks show:

  • Lower volume

  • Overlapping bars
    ➡️ Textbook bullish effort vs result

C. Recent Acceleration (Jan)

• Wide-range bullish bars

• Volume expansion

• Minimal downside wicks
  ➡️ Displacement move – institutions pushing price, not retail chop

⚠️ Latest bar:

• Wide range + strong close at high

• Volume elevated
  ➡️ This is professional buying, but also late-stage momentum ignition

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5. Institutional Footprints & Smart Money Concepts

Confirmed Elements

• Order Blocks:

  • Bullish OB around 8.20–8.40 (last bearish bar before impulse)

  • Secondary OB near 9.80–10.00

• Liquidity Runs:

  • Clean sweep above 9.00 and 10.00 round numbers

  • Stops cleared → continuation, not reversal

• No Distribution Yet

  • No upthrusts

  • No high-volume rejection at highs

  • No failed breakout structures

➡️ Institutions are still in control, not exiting.

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6. Bar Pattern Recognition (Recent)

Latest Sequence

• Consecutive bullish continuation bars

• Very small upper wicks despite extension

• No reversal bars (no shooting stars / outside bearish bars)

➡️ Trend strength > exhaustion (for now)

⚠️ But:

• Distance from last valid HL is expanding

• Risk is no longer asymmetric for fresh longs

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7. Psychological & Reference Levels

Major Psychological Levels

• 10.00 – decisively accepted

• 11.00 – acceptance confirmed

• 12.00 – next obvious liquidity magnet

Previous Structural Levels

• Resistance turned support: 10.20–10.50

• Deeper structure: 9.80–10.00

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8. High-Conviction Levels (Actionable)

Support / Demand Zones

• Primary Demand: 10.20 – 10.50
  (first logical HL retest)

• Secondary Demand: 9.80 – 10.00
  (structural + psychological confluence)

• Deep Institutional Zone: 8.80 – 9.00
  (last clean base before trend acceleration)

Resistance / Extension Zones

• Near-term: 11.50 – 11.80

• Measured Extension: ~12.00+

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9. Risk-Adjusted Trade Logic (Institutional Perspective)

For Existing Longs

• Stop Logic:

  • Below 10.20 (structure-based, not %-based)

• Management:

  • Partial scale-out into 11.50–12.00

  • Trail under higher lows

For New Entries

❌ Poor R:R at current price

• Chasing here = retail behavior

• Optimal entries only on:

  • Pullback with volume dry-up into 10.20–10.50

  • Or post-consolidation re-break with compression

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10. Top 5 Institutional-Grade Observations (Summary)

1. Clean multi-month HH/HL structure with zero CHoCH

2. Repeated absorption + low-volume pullbacks = smart money control

3. Recent upside displacement confirms active institutional push

4. Breaks of 9 & 10 were liquidity runs, not bull traps

5. Late-stage mark-up → trend intact but entry risk elevated

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11. Forward-Looking Bias & Key Watchpoints

Bias:
➡️ Bullish continuation, but expect volatility expansion

What to Watch Next

• Any high-volume upthrust above 11.50 → first warning

• Failure to hold 10.20 → potential CHoCH

• Sideways compression near highs → continuation setup

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Bottom Line (Institutional Lens)

This is a professionally managed trend, not a speculative spike.
However, edge has shifted from entry to management.

Disclaimer:Please note that this analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice. Trading involves significant risk, and you should consult with a financial advisor before making any decisions.

Dividend:   1.61%