Arthur Wang Technical Analysis: OLAM

Saturday, January 10, 2026

OLAM - 09 Jan 2026

Olam Group Limited (SGX: VC2)

Timeframe: Daily (1D)
Date range observed: ~May 2025 – Jan 2026
Bars analyzed: ~160
Last traded price: SGD 0.940

1) Current Market Regime

Bearish → Late-stage range / potential basing.
Primary downtrend since Aug 2025 has transitioned into a compressed range with reduced volatility and overlapping bars, suggesting selling pressure is waning, but no confirmed reversal yet.

2) Market Structure & Order Flow

Primary structure:
- SH: ~1.110 (Aug) → LH: ~1.040 (Sep) → LH: ~1.020 (Oct) → LH: ~0.965 (Dec)
- SL: ~0.995 → LL: ~0.960 → LL: ~0.930
BOS: Clear downside BOS below 0.995 (Sep) and 0.960 (Nov) confirming bearish control.
CHoCH watch: Requires daily close above 0.965–0.980 with follow-through to invalidate the series of LHs.
Momentum: Noticeable range compression since mid-Dec (shorter bodies, overlapping closes).

3) Volume–Price Relationship (VPR)

Distribution signatures: High volume on down bars during Oct–Nov declines → professional selling into weak rallies.
Absorption clues (recent): Late-Dec to Jan shows moderate volume + small ranges around 0.93–0.95, hinting at passive absorption.
Volume dry-up: Selling volume diminishes near 0.930, a classic precondition for a base—needs confirmation.

4) Institutional Footprints

Liquidity sweeps: Repeated probes below 0.95 that fail to extend (Dec) suggest stop-harvesting with limited follow-through.
Order block (supply): 0.98–1.02 zone (Oct–Nov rally failures). Expect heavy supply on first retest.
Inefficiency/FVG: Thin liquidity between 0.96–0.98—likely revisited on any upside attempt.

5) Bar Pattern Read

Reversal bars: No decisive bullish engulfing yet. Recent small-body candles = indecision, not reversal.
Continuation risk: Without a strong bullish close, the range risks resolving downward.
Measured moves: Prior impulse (1.02 → 0.93 ≈ 0.09). Failure below 0.93 projects 0.88–0.87.

6) Multi-Timeframe Confluence

Weekly bias: Bearish / neutral-to-bearish (price below prior weekly supply).
Daily: Range compression at demand—setup forming, not triggered.
Confluence levels: 0.93–0.94 (demand) vs 0.98–1.02 (supply).

7) Psychological & Reference Levels

Round numbers: 0.95 (pivot), 1.00 (major psychological cap).
Range extremes: 0.930 (range low), 0.965–0.980 (range high/trigger).
ATR context: Recent daily ranges are below average, favoring a volatility expansion soon.

8) High-Probability Zones & Risk Framework

Bullish (counter-trend) – only on confirmation

Trigger: Daily close > 0.965 with volume expansion.
Entry: 0.965–0.975 (pullback).
Stop: < 0.940 (below range midpoint).
Targets:
- T1: 0.995–1.00
- T2: 1.02 (supply)
R:R: ~1:2 to 1:3 (conditional).

Bearish (trend-aligned)

Trigger: Clean break & close < 0.930 with volume.
Entry: 0.925–0.930 (retest).
Stop: > 0.950.
Targets: 0.88–0.87.
R:R: ~1:2+.

9) Highest-Conviction Observations (3–5)

Clear lower-high sequence since Aug confirms dominant bearish structure.
Selling pressure is diminishing near 0.93—absorption possible but unproven.
0.965–0.980 is the line in the sand for any structural change.
Expect volatility expansion from the current compression.
First test of 0.98–1.02 likely meets institutional supply.

10) Forward-Looking Bias & Key Levels

Bias: Neutral-to-bearish until 0.965+ is reclaimed.
Key levels to watch: 0.930, 0.950, 0.965–0.980, 1.00–1.02.
Playbook: Wait for confirmation, not anticipation—either a range breakout up with volume or a range breakdown aligned with the prevailing trend.

Disclaimer:Please note that this analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice. Trading involves significant risk, and you should consult with a financial advisor before making any decisions.

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Arthur Wang Technical Analysis