HRnetGroup Ltd (SGX: CHZ)
Timeframe: Daily
Chart Window: ~May 2025 → 12 Jan 2026
Last Traded Price: 0.735
1️⃣ Market Regime Classification
Current Regime: Transition → Distribution inside higher-timeframe uptrend
Price has moved from a clean uptrend (May–Oct) into a tight range under resistance (Nov–Jan) with repeated failed breakouts near 0.75–0.76.
This is a classic Wyckoff Phase B → C distribution behaviour.
Smart money is no longer aggressively accumulating — they are selling into strength.
2️⃣ Macro Market Structure (May → Jan)
Primary Trend
-
SL: 0.655 (June)
-
SH: 0.710 (Aug)
-
Higher Low: 0.685 (Sep)
-
Break of Structure (BOS):
→ Strong impulsive rally 0.685 → 0.750 (Oct)
This BOS confirmed institutional accumulation phase completion.
Current Structural State
Since the Oct rally:
-
Highs: 0.750 → 0.755 → 0.745
-
Lows: 0.710 → 0.715 → 0.720
This is a range-compression under resistance, not a trend continuation.
That is textbook distribution.
3️⃣ Institutional Footprints
October breakout
Huge volume spike at ~0.72–0.75
Wide-range candles
→ Professional accumulation & markup
Then…
November–January
-
Price cannot hold above 0.75
-
Repeated upper wicks
-
High volume + small body near 0.75
That =
Absorption of retail buying by institutions selling inventory
Smart money is distributing.
4️⃣ Volume–Price Relationship
| Zone | Volume Behaviour | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| 0.70 → 0.75 (Oct) | High volume, wide range | Professional accumulation & markup |
| 0.74 → 0.76 (Nov–Jan) | Medium-high volume, narrow range | Distribution / supply absorption |
| 0.715 (Dec) | Sharp sell-off, fast recovery | Liquidity sweep + defensive buying |
This tells us:
Smart money bought below 0.70
Smart money is selling above 0.74
5️⃣ Liquidity & Traps
Retail trap
Retail traders see:
“Sideways consolidation = breakout coming”
Institutions see:
“Perfect zone to offload inventory quietly”
Multiple false breaks above 0.75 confirm:
Upthrust after distribution
6️⃣ Key Order Blocks & Fair Value Gaps
| Level | Role |
|---|---|
| 0.750–0.755 | Major institutional supply zone |
| 0.735–0.740 | Micro demand (weak) |
| 0.720–0.715 | Last strong institutional demand |
| 0.685–0.700 | Primary accumulation zone |
7️⃣ Critical Price Levels
| Level | Meaning |
|---|---|
| 0.755 | Distribution ceiling |
| 0.745 | Failed breakout pivot |
| 0.735 (now) | Mid-range → no edge |
| 0.720 | Bearish breakdown trigger |
| 0.700 | Institutional re-entry zone |
8️⃣ Highest-Conviction Observations
-
October rally was institutional markup — trend is now complete
-
0.75 has become a professional selling wall
-
Volume is drying up inside the range → breakout unlikely
-
Every push up is absorbed → classic distribution
-
0.72 is the line that separates range vs sell-off
9️⃣ Risk-Adjusted Trade Logic
Bullish only if
Daily close above 0.755
With volume expansion
Target:
-
0.78
-
0.82
Stop:
-
0.735
(Probability: LOW)
High-Probability Setup
Distribution short / sell-on-rallies
Entry zone:
-
0.745 – 0.755
Stop:
-
Above 0.760
Targets:
-
0.720
-
0.700
Risk-reward:
~1:3
10 Forward Bias
HRnet is not breaking out.
It is being distributed.
Unless institutions reclaim 0.755 with force, price is far more likely to retest 0.72 → 0.70 than to trend higher.
This is no longer an accumulation stock — it is a sell-the-rally structure.
Disclaimer:Please note that this analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice. Trading involves significant risk, and you should consult with a financial advisor before making any decisions.
Dividend: 5.44%
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