SBS Transit - 23 Jan 2026

📊 Chart Setup & Context

• Stock: SBS Transit Ltd (SGX: S61)

• Timeframe: Daily (1D)

• Exchange: SGX

• Analysis Period: ~Jun 2025 → 23 Jan 2026

• Approx. Bars Analyzed: ~150 daily bars

• Last Traded Price: SGD 3.28

• Recent High / Low (visible range): 3.40 / 2.68

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🧭 1. Market Regime Classification (Lead)

Current Regime: Late-Stage Range → Emerging Upward Pressure

• Primary trend from Jun → Aug: Strong impulsive uptrend

• Sep → Dec: Broad distributional range

• Jan 2026: Range-high compression with upward bias

• Volatility contraction + rising closes → transition regime leaning bullish

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🔍 2. Market Structure & Order Flow Analysis

Structural Mapping

• Major Swing Low (SL): ~2.71 (July)

• Impulse High (SH): ~3.40 (Sep – climactic)

• Range Low: ~3.11–3.14 (Nov–Dec)

• Range High: ~3.27–3.28 (multiple tests)

BOS / CHoCH

• BOS (Bullish): July breakout above 2.85 → clean displacement to 3.10+

• CHoCH (Bearish): Failure to hold above 3.30–3.40 in Sep

• Current State: No bearish BOS below 3.11 → bull structure intact

Momentum Quality

• Early trend: wide-range bars, expanding volume

• Range phase: overlapping bars, declining ranges

• Recent bars: higher lows + tight real bodies → compression before resolution

👉 Key insight: Structure is not bearish; this is consolidation after markup, not distribution breakdown.

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📦 3. Advanced Volume–Price Relationship (VPR)

Key Volume Signatures

• July–Aug:

  • High volume + wide range → professional markup

• Sep High (~3.40):

  • Climactic volume + rejection → exhaustion, not reversal

• Nov Sell-off to 3.11:

  • Volume spike + limited downside → absorption

• Dec–Jan:

  • Volume dry-up while price rises → lack of supply

Effort vs Result

• Multiple high-volume red bars around 3.15–3.20 failed to extend lower
  → Strong demand absorption by smart money

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🧠 4. Institutional Footprint Recognition

Smart Money Concepts

• Liquidity Grab:

  • Sep spike above 3.35–3.40 swept breakout buyers, followed by sharp retrace

• Order Block (Demand):

  • 3.10–3.14 zone = last bearish cluster before upside response

• FVG (Inefficiency):

  • Thin trading zone between ~3.22–3.26 now being respected

• Accumulation Phase:

  • Wyckoff Phase C → D characteristics since Nov

👉 Interpretation: Institutions are defending higher lows, not distributing aggressively.

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🕯️ 5. Bar Pattern Recognition

Reversal & Control Bars

• Nov Low (~3.11): Long-wick rejection + volume expansion → valid demand signal

• Dec–Jan: Multiple inside-bar compressions near range highs

Continuation Structures

• Ascending micro-base: Higher lows (3.11 → 3.14 → 3.20)

• Flag-like behavior: Pullbacks <38.2% of prior impulse

Indecision Analysis

• Doji/spinning tops appear mid-range, not at highs → neutral to bullish

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🧩 6. Multi-Timeframe Confluence

• Daily: Range high compression

• Weekly (inferred): Holding above prior breakout base (~3.00)

• Timeframe Compression: Daily structure aligning with higher-TF support

👉 Bias: Higher-TF support intact → daily breakout more likely to resolve upward

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🧮 7. Psychological & Reference Levels

Level	Significance
3.28–3.30	Range high / decision zone
3.40	Prior liquidity high
3.14–3.11	Institutional demand floor
3.00	Major round-number psychological support

ATR context: Recent bars are sub-ATR → volatility expansion pending.

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🎯 8. High-Probability Setup Mapping (Risk-Adjusted)

Bullish Continuation Scenario (Primary)

• Trigger: Daily close above 3.28–3.30 with volume expansion

• Targets:

  • T1: 3.40 (liquidity high)

  • T2: 3.55–3.60 (measured move from 3.11 base)

• Invalidation: Daily close below 3.14

R:R: ~1:3+

Range Failure / Neutral Scenario

• Rejection at 3.30 + high volume

• Watch for absorption behavior at 3.20–3.14

• Breakdown only valid below 3.11 with expansion

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🧠 9. Highest-Conviction Observations (Top 5)

1. No bearish BOS despite 4 months of consolidation

2. Repeated absorption at 3.11–3.14 confirms strong demand

3. Volume contraction into resistance = breakout setup, not exhaustion

4. Prior 3.40 high was liquidity grab, not trend termination

5. Current structure resembles re-accumulation after markup

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🔮 Forward-Looking Bias & Key Levels

Bias: Bullish continuation favored, conditional on volume confirmation
Levels to Watch Closely:

• 3.28–3.30: Decision zone

• 3.40: Liquidity magnet

• 3.14: Structural invalidation

Disclaimer:Please note that this analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice. Trading involves significant risk, and you should consult with a financial advisor before making any decisions.

Dividend:  6.19%