1. Chart Setup & Context
Stock: Singapore Post Ltd (SGX: S08)
Timeframe: Daily (1D)
Approx. Date Range: Jun 2025 → Jan 2026
Bars Analyzed: ~150+ daily bars
Last Traded Price: ~0.400
Recent Volume: Muted, below mid-range historical average
Current Regime (Headline):
Late-stage bearish → compressed accumulation / balance range
2. Market Structure & Order Flow
Primary Structure (Top-Down)
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Major Swing High (SH): ~0.660 (July)
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Major Break of Structure (BOS):
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Clean downside BOS below ~0.600 → confirms trend reversal from uptrend to downtrend
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Cascade of Lower Highs (LH):
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0.660 → 0.520 → 0.480 → 0.425 → 0.415
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Swing Lows (SL):
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Deceleration from impulsive selling into flattening lows near 0.390–0.400
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Key Insight:
Momentum decays materially after September, with shrinking candle ranges and overlapping bodies → classic trend exhaustion into balance.
3. Volume–Price Relationship (VPR)
Distribution Phase (July–Aug)
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High volume + wide red ranges during the 0.60 → 0.48 breakdown
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Clear professional distribution and forced liquidation
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Retail trapped on prior “dividend/mean-reversion” narrative
Decline → Absorption Phase (Sep–Oct)
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Selling continues but:
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Volume no longer expands
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Down bars show diminishing spread
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Effort (volume) > Result (price) → absorption by stronger hands
Current Compression (Nov–Jan)
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Low volume + narrow range
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Multiple bars closing near midpoint
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No follow-through on downside probes below ~0.395
This is not active distribution — it is inventory stabilization
4. Institutional Footprints & Smart Money Concepts
Liquidity Behavior
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Downside liquidity sweep:
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Brief probes toward 0.390 fail to expand range
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No panic volume → weak hands already flushed
Order Block Logic
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Bearish order block (supply):
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~0.425–0.435 (last strong sell-off base)
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Demand response:
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0.390–0.400 repeatedly defended
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Fair Value Efficiency
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No meaningful FVGs remain open on daily
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Market is efficiently priced inside balance
5. Bar Pattern Diagnostics
What You See Repeatedly
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Small-body candles with wicks both sides
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Occasional bullish bars with no follow-through
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Frequent inside-bar clustering
Interpretation:
This is professional inactivity, not indecision from fear.
Market is waiting for external expansion catalyst.
6. Market Regime Classification
| Phase | Status |
|---|---|
| Trending (Bear) | Completed |
| Transition | Completed |
| Accumulation / Balance | Active |
| Mark-Up | ❌ Not yet |
This is Wyckoff Phase B → early Phase C candidate, but no confirmed spring yet.
7. Key Psychological & Structural Levels
Critical Levels
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Major Support: 0.390–0.400
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Loss of this = renewed markdown risk
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Range High / Supply: 0.425–0.435
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Must be reclaimed with volume to flip bias
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Structural Invalidation (Bear):
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Sustained acceptance above ~0.445
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Round-Number Psychology
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0.40 is heavily defended (psych + accounting bias)
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Institutions clearly referencing it
8. Highest-Conviction Observations (Top 5)
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Downtrend momentum is fully exhausted — no expansion since October
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Repeated absorption near 0.40 despite multiple tests
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No supply urgency — sellers are inactive, not aggressive
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Rallies fail due to lack of demand, not excess supply
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Market is coiled, not broken — resolution pending
9. Risk-Adjusted Trade Location Logic (Technical Only)
Scenario A — Conservative (Confirmation-Based)
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Trigger: Daily close above 0.435 with volume expansion
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Bias: Structural range breakout
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Invalidation: Close back below 0.415
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Profile: Low frequency, high clarity
Scenario B — Mean-Reversion / Accumulation
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Location: 0.395–0.405
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Risk: Tight, below 0.385 (structural)
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Expectation: Range rotation, not trend
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This is NOT a breakout trade
Scenario C — Bear Continuation (Low Probability, High Impact)
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Trigger: High-volume breakdown below 0.390
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Implication: Absorption failed → renewed markdown
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Target Logic: No support until lower historical base
10. Forward-Looking Bias
Neutral → Slightly Constructive (but NOT bullish)
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Market is balanced
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Next expansion will likely be fast once triggered
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Direction depends on volume asymmetry, not patterns
Final Professional Summary
Singapore Post (S08) has completed a full bearish cycle and is now in a low-energy, institutionally controlled balance phase around 0.40.
There is no evidence of active selling, but also no proof of accumulation completion.
Treat this as a range-inventory environment, not a trend.
Wait for expansion — not opinions.
Disclaimer:Please note that this analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice. Trading involves significant risk, and you should consult with a financial advisor before making any decisions.
Dividend: 0.75%
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