Valuemax - 19 Jan 2026

0. Chart Setup & Context

• Stock: ValueMax Group Ltd (T6I, SGX)

• Timeframe: Daily (1D)

• Date Range: ~May 2025 → 19 Jan 2026

• Approx. Bars Analyzed: ~170 trading days

• Last Traded Price: 0.990

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1. Market Regime Classification (Lead)

Primary Regime:
➡️ Post-trend consolidation (re-accumulation within higher-timeframe uptrend)

• Strong impulsive uptrend from ~0.50 → ~1.10

• Followed by multi-month range compression between ~0.88–1.00

• No structural breakdown → trend intact, momentum paused

This is not distribution. It is a pause after markup.

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2. Higher-Timeframe Market Structure (Macro → Micro)

Macro Structure (May → Oct)

• Clear HH / HL sequence

  • SL: ~0.505 → 0.570 → 0.750 → 0.870

  • SH: ~0.750 → 0.95 → 1.05 → 1.10

• Strong BOS above 0.95 with expanding volume

• October spike to ~1.10 = climactic high

📌 This leg shows classic institutional markup with no structural weakness.

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Transition Phase (Oct → Nov)

• Failure to continue above 1.05–1.10

• First CHoCH (Change of Character):

  • HL fails to extend

  • Overlapping bars + shrinking ranges

• Volume spikes fail to produce new highs

➡️ Momentum exhaustion, not reversal

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Current Micro Structure (Nov → Jan)

• Range defined:

  • Upper bound: ~1.00–1.02

  • Lower bound: ~0.88–0.90

• Multiple tests of 0.885–0.92 zone

• Each sell-off:

  • Shorter duration

  • Shallower downside

  • Reduced downside follow-through

📌 Classic re-accumulation behavior.

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3. Advanced Volume–Price Relationship (VPR)

Key Volume Observations

1. High volume + small range near 0.90–0.92
   → Absorption (strong hands defending structure)

2. Volume expansion without downside continuation
   → Selling pressure is being absorbed, not accepted

3. Volume contraction near 0.98–1.00
   → Supply drying up at resistance (pre-breakout condition)

⚠️ No signs of:

• Panic volume

• Wide-range bearish expansion

• Distribution spikes at highs

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4. Institutional Footprints & Smart Money Behavior

Accumulation / Re-accumulation Traits

• Repeated stop-runs below 0.90 followed by fast recovery
  → Liquidity grab (retail stops harvested)

• Order blocks:

  • Bullish OB around 0.88–0.90

  • Origin of most upside responses

• Fair Value Gap (FVG):

  • Inefficiency between 0.94–0.97

  • Price consistently rebalances and holds above it

📌 Institutions are defending the range lows, not distributing highs.

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5. Bar-by-Bar Pattern Highlights (High-Conviction)

At Range Lows (~0.885–0.90)

• Long-wick rejection bars

• Bullish closes near highs

• Volume > prior 5–10 bar average

➡️ Demand confirmation

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Inside-Bar Compression (Dec → Jan)

• Multiple narrow-range bars

• Overlapping closes near 0.98–0.99

• Declining volume

➡️ Energy coiling – expansion pending

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Failed Bearish Follow-Through

• Red bars near 0.95–0.97

• Immediate bullish response next session

• Indicates lack of supply

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6. Psychological & Structural Levels

Level	Significance
1.10	Major swing high / liquidity pool
1.00	Psychological + range high
0.94–0.97	Value / FVG / control zone
0.88–0.90	Structural HL + institutional demand
0.87	Last major defended swing low

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7. High-Probability Trade Location Mapping (Risk-Adjusted)

Bullish Continuation Scenario (Higher Probability)

• Trigger: Daily close above 1.00 with volume expansion

• Invalidation: Acceptance below 0.88

• Measured Move Projection:

  • Range height ≈ 0.12

  • Target: 1.12–1.15 (prior liquidity + extension)

➡️ R:R easily 1:3+

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Range Play (Mean Reversion)

• Buy responses near 0.90 ±

• Stops below 0.87

• Partial exits near 0.99–1.00

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Bearish Scenario (Low Probability, But Defined)

• Only valid if:

  • High volume breakdown below 0.88

  • Acceptance (multiple closes below)

• Target then shifts to 0.82–0.80

⚠️ Currently no volume evidence supporting this.

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8. Top 5 Highest-Conviction Observations

1. Uptrend structure remains intact (no BOS to downside)

2. Repeated absorption at 0.88–0.92

3. Supply drying up near 1.00

4. Compression favors expansion, not decay

5. Behavior aligns with re-accumulation, not distribution

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9. Forward-Looking Bias & Key Levels

Bias:
➡️ Bullish continuation after consolidation

Key Levels to Watch Closely:

• Acceptance above 1.00 → acceleration

• Failure below 0.88 → regime reassessment

• Volume behavior at breakout is the deciding factor

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Bottom Line (Professional Read)

This chart shows institutional patience, not exit.
The market has already repriced ValueMax once.
It is now digesting gains before the next directional decision.

Disclaimer:Please note that this analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice. Trading involves significant risk, and you should consult with a financial advisor before making any decisions.

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