Monday, December 01, 2025

CapLand Ascendas - 01 Dec 2025

CapitaLand Ascendas REIT (A17U) – 1D

Chart Setup & Context

Stock: CapitaLand Ascendas REIT (A17U)
Exchange: SGX
Timeframe: 1-Day
Date Range on Chart: ~March 2025 → Dec 2025
Last Traded Price: 2.78
Number of Bars (approx.): ~180

1. Market Regime Classification (Lead Section)

→ Current Regime: Late-range / Weakening Distribution Structure

Evidence:

Price repeatedly rejected 2.87 – 2.90 supply zone (3 tests).
Higher lows from June → Aug, but no higher high beyond 2.90.
Since Oct, price oscillates between 2.76 support and 2.88 resistance, without directional conviction.
Volume weakening on rallies → typical of distribution.

2. Highest Conviction Observations (Institutional-Grade Insights)

(1) Key Resistance at 2.87–2.90: Sellers absorbed every breakout attempt

Each time price reached 2.87–2.90, volume expanded but follow-through failed.
Multiple supply tails indicate smart money selling into strength.
Bars closing off highs with long wicks ← classic distribution footprint.

(2) Support at 2.76 is holding, but with declining reaction strength

Buyers defended 2.76 twice (Nov & Dec).
But each bounce produces lower highs.
Volume on both bounces is smaller than the supply on prior drops → weak demand.

(3) Structural CHoCH (Change of Character) occurred after Aug peak

Aug front-run to 2.87 → strong rejection.
September swing low 2.65 created a lower low.
Market shifted from bullish sequence to range.

(4) Volume profile shows accumulation at 2.55 (June) but none recently

The only clear accumulation absorption bar occurred at the June 2.55 sell-off (long downward wick + high volume + strong reversal).
No such equivalent buyer footprint near recent lows → weakening demand.

(5) Current 2.78 area is a value zone inside a high-density volume cluster

Market is compressing into a tight range.
The tape shows reduced volatility → energy building for a directional breakout.

3. Market Structure & Order Flow Analysis

Swing Highs (SH)

2.75 (Apr)
2.72 (May)
2.87 (Aug)
2.87 (Oct)
2.90 (early Nov) ← major SH

Swing Lows (SL)

2.49 (Mar)
2.55 (Jun)
2.65 (Sep)
2.76 (Oct)
2.76 (Dec)

Structure Assessment

Strong uptrend Apr → Aug.
Broken by lower low in Sep (2.65).
Since then: broad range 2.76–2.90.

BOS Events

BOS Down: Break of 2.72 (June) → trend reset.
BOS Up: Break of 2.75 → uptrend resumed to 2.87.
BOS Down: Break of 2.72 (Sep) → transition into ranging market.

CHoCH Events

Post-August rejection → first CHoCH from bullish → neutral/bearish.

4. Volume-Price Relationship (VPR) Analysis

Key Observations

July–Aug rally: healthy volume, good spread → professional buying.
Aug peak at 2.87: wide-range + high volume → buying climax / distribution.
Downlegs in Sep: high volume + poor progress → absorption failure → real selling.
Rallies in Oct–Nov: small bars + smaller volumes → weak demand.
Recent candles: compressed ranges, uniform volumes → waiting for catalyst.

5. Institutional Footprint Recognition

Liquidity Grabs

Twice near 2.90, price wicks above prior highs then reverses → classic stop hunts.

Order Blocks

Bearish OB formed at 2.87–2.90 following strong downward displacement in early Sep.

Fair Value Gaps (FVG)

Small FVG left during July rally was filled on pullback – efficient market.
No major unfilled FVG recently → equilibrium structure.

Displacement Moves

Strong displacement down after 2.90 rejection → institutional selling confirmed.

6. Bar Pattern Recognition

Reversal Bars

Strong bullish hammer at 2.55 (June) on high volume → institutional demand confirmed.
Weak shooting stars in Oct/Nov near 2.88 → distribution.

Continuation Patterns

Several inside bar clusters in late July → bullish continuation.
Recent inside bar clusters around 2.78 → coiled compression, upcoming move likely.

7. Multi-Timeframe Confluence

Although only daily chart provided, typical REIT monthly charts show:

Long-term sideways structure.
Strong value demand zone around 2.55–2.60 (multi-year support).

Thus:

Daily support at 2.76 is secondary.
Stronger support lies lower at 2.60 area.

8. Institutional Supply/Demand Zones

Major Supply

2.87 – 2.90 (dominant supply, repeated rejections)

Intermediate Supply

2.82 – 2.85 (cluster selling)

Major Demand

2.76 (short-term)
2.60 – 2.65 (medium-term)
2.55 (strong long-term demand)

9. Actionable Zones (High-Probability Regions)

If Bullish

Entry Zone: 2.76 demand retest with strong bullish candle.
Target 1: 2.84
Target 2: 2.87
Stop: Below 2.74 (structural level)

If Bearish

Breakdown Entry: Clean break below 2.76 with volume
Target 1: 2.70
Target 2: 2.65
Target 3: 2.55 (major long-term value zone)
Stop: Above 2.80

10. Forward-Looking Bias

Neutral → Slightly Bearish Bias

Reason:

Lack of strong buyer footprint near 2.76.
Lower highs accumulating.
Distribution near 2.87–2.90.

Key Levels to Watch

2.76 – if broken → correction begins.
2.84 – reclaim indicates renewed demand.
2.90 – only a strong close above this invalidates distribution thesis.

Condensed Summary

A17U is in late-range structure with signs of distribution at highs and weakening buyer strength at support. The 2.76 level is critical; losing it opens the path to 2.65 → 2.55. A break above 2.90 is needed to resume an uptrend.

Disclaimer:Please note that this analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice. Trading involves significant risk, and you should consult with a financial advisor before making any decisions.

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